For the next two weeks, in honor of the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft on June 5-6, I will be devoting my posts to a review of the 2007 draft. Today, let’s take a look at how some of the key National League supplemental first round picks are faring in their first full season in professional baseball.

Nick Noonan (San Francisco) was considered an advanced high school hitter when he was drafted and he has held his own this season in A-ball. He is currently hitting .283/.310/.429 with two homers in 191 at-bats. He needs to show more patience, though, having walked only 3.2 percent of the time, while striking out at a rate of 17.6 percent.

Jon Gilmore (Atlanta) did not receive a call up to full-season ball until May and he has struggled with the bat. The 19-year-old third baseman is hitting .143/.172/.143 in 56 at-bats. He has struck out at a rate of 17.9 percent.

Clayton Mortensen (St. Louis), 23, has been solid since beginning his pro career. Currently in High-A ball, Mortensen has a 4.12 ERA in 54.2 innings and has allowed 53 hits. He has rates of 6.75 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9. He has done an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground and has induced more than 2.6 groundballs for each flyball.

The Dodgers usually prefer raw high schoolers with high draft picks, but the club took James Adkins and he is on the fast-track. Currently pitching in High-A ball, Adkins has a 4.07 ERA in 48.2 innings. He has allowed 49 hits and rates of 8.14 K/9 and 3.51 BB/9. Adkins has struggled in his last two outings by allowing seven earned runs in nine innings of work over two starts.

Eddie Kunz (New York NL) is a groundball machine, inducing more than eight grounders for each flyball in his debut. This season, in Double-A, the 6-5, 265 pound reliever is inducing groundballs at a rate of 3.25 per flyball. His ERA is a little high at 4.43 (He has allowed five earned runs in his last two outs spanning two innings) and Kunz has allowed 24 hits, but he has yet to allow a homer in his pro career.

Michael Burgess (Washington) slid out of first round consideration because a number of scouts doubted the prepster’s ability to hit pro pitching. He hit .318 in his pro debut and has held his own so far this season. Currently, he is hitting .258/.323/.516 with 11 homers in 182 at-bats. Burgess has walked 8.6 percent of the time and has struck out at a rate of 33.9 percent, a number that obviously needs to shrink.

After he hit .286 in his pro debut last season, Charlie Culberson (San Francisco) was promoted to full-season ball to begin to 2008 but he has struggled. The 19-year-old is hitting .156/.233/.220 in 109 at-bats. Culberson has walked 5.2 percent of the time and struck out at a rate of 24.8 percent.

Josh Smoker (Washington) has appeared in only two pro games and has been held back in extended spring training, but he should play in the New York Penn League this summer. The 19-year-old southpaw is talented, but raw. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud (Philadelphia) also has yet to appear in full-season ball this season.

For the next two weeks, in honor of the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft on June 5-6, I will be devoting my posts to a review of the 2007 draft. Today, let’s take a look at how some of the key National League first rounders are faring in their first full season in professional baseball.

Josh Vitters (Chicago NL) has been injured and has only played in four games so far this season at the A-ball level. Fellow prep third baseman Matt Dominguez (Florida) had a late start to the season after beginning in extended spring training. He has appeared in only five games.

Pittsburgh fans were disappointed with the club’s selection of college reliever Daniel Moskos. The lefty has been shifted to the starting rotation but his numbers have been nothing special in High-A ball: 4.89 ERA in 42.1 innings with 41 hits. He has rates of 5.95 K/9 and 2.13 BB/9.

Matt LaPorta (Milwaukee) was the surprise pick of the early going in the 2007 draft. The Brewers could not turn down the opportunity to draft his powerful bat, even though they already had Prince Fielder at first base. LaPorta has been shifted to the outfield where it is a stretch to call him an even average fielder. However, he has done nothing but hit and could see the majors by the end of the year. In Double-A this season, the 23-year-old has hit .293/.402/.602 with 13 homers in 181 at-bats. He has walked 13.2 percent of the time and struck out 17.5 percent.

High school shortstop Peter Kozma (St. Louis) was supposed to possess an advanced bat for a prep player and he has done nothing to change that view. In A-ball this season, Kozma is hitting .280/.356/.409 with three homers in 164 at-bats. He has walked 10.6 percent of the time and struck out 20.6 percent.

Outfielder Jason Heyward (Atlanta) is another high school player that has been outstanding so far this season. He has a line of .330/.368/.495 with six homers in 194 at-bats. Heyward has walked 6.9 percent of the time and struck out 18.1 percent. The left-handed batter is also hitting .388 against southpaws.

Like Detroit’s Rick Porcello, prep pitcher Tim Alderson (San Francisco) skipped A-ball and made his full-season debut at High-A ball. He has an ERA of 3.68 in 51.1 innings. He has rates of 6.84 K/9 and 3.51 BB/9.

San Diego’s first round pick Nick Schmidt pitched in just three games before injuring his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery. He should be ready to pitch again in 2009.

So far so good for the National League, as the above players represent a very impressive haul for the 2007 first round.

Arizona’s Yusmeiro Petit is an interesting pitcher. New York Mets fans will recognize his name as a former top prospect with the organization before he was traded to the Florida Marlins, along with first baseman Mike Jacobs and infielder Grant Psomas, for veteran first baseman Carlos Delgado in November of 2005. Petit was then flipped to Arizona in March 2007 for reliever Jorge Julio.

The right-hander, a Venezuela native, was originally signed as a non-drafted free agent by the Mets in 2001. He spent some time honing his skills in Latin America before coming over to play in Rookie ball in 2003 at the age of 18. Petit turned heads by allowing only 6.82 H/9, 1.16 BB/9 and posting a rate of 9.44 K/9. He even earned a late-season, two-game promotion to the New York Penn League.

He really got noticed in 2004 when, as a 19 year old, he started out in full-season ball in the South Atlantic League. In 15 starts, Petit posted rates of 5.10 H/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a dazzling 13.23 K/9. He was promoted to High-A ball in the Florida State League where he made another nine starts and posted rates of 5.48 H/9, 2.84 BB/9 and 12.59 K/9. He also made two late season starts in Double-A and posted similar rates, although the hits were a little higher, as were the walks. On the season, in just under 140 innings, Petit struck out 200 batters.

Right about now, like Mets fans at the time, you are probably beginning to salivate at the thought of a young, hard-throwing phenom, yes? Well the thing about Petit is that he throws in the upper-80s and doesn’t have any one pitch that will wow you. Frankly, no one really understood how he struck out so many batters… although he did have above-average command and some deception in his delivery. But most scouts agreed on one thing: It probably would not last. And it didn’t.

Petit spent most of 2005 in Double-A where he made 21 starts and posted rates of 6.88 H/9, 1.38 BB/9 and 9.94 K/9. In two late season starts in Triple-A, he posted a 9.20 ERA and allowed 14.73 H/9. He was rated the second best prospect in the Mets system by Baseball America. The Mets then sold high on Petit in the off-season with the trade to Florida.

The next season in Triple-A, he posted rates of 9.40 H/9, 1.86 BB/9 and 6.33 K/9. In 15 games at the major league level, including one start, Petit posted a 9.57 ERA. He allowed 15.72 H/9. He was then sent to Arizona in the off-season.

Petit pitched respectably in 17 starts for Triple-A Tucson and also held his own in the majors. In 14 games, 10 starts, he posted rates of 9.16 H/9, 2.84 BB/9 and 6.32 K/9. OK numbers, but nothing like the eye-bulging rates he was posting as a 19-year-old in A-ball. So far in 2008, Petit has been on the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors, which may very well be his future. Although he is still only 23, Petit’s stuff and recent numbers would suggest he is a pretty good Triple-A pitcher and an OK 12th or 13th pitcher on a major league staff.

The lesson for today is this: Stats are great, but sometimes you just have to trust the scouting report.

I wrote about the Diamondback’s 2007 first round pick Jarrod Parker yesterday. After researching him, I decided to take a look back at Arizona’s other recent No. 1 picks, from 2003 to 2006, and came away impressed. Taking players in the first round of the Major League Baseball amateur draft is not as foolproof as some people might think… there have been a lot of first round busts over the past five years.

First baseman Conor Jackson was the club’s first pick of the 2003 draft out of the University of California as the 19th overall selection. He is not a superstar but Jackson made it to the majors as a full-time player within three years of the draft. He has an OPS+ of 105 during his major league career and has been consistent.

Shortstop Stephen Drew was taken 15th overall in the 2004 draft out of Florida State University. He actually slid in the draft due to signability concerns. He sat out for a while during contract negotiations and finally signed on the dotted line in 2005. After 148 minor league games Drew was in the majors to stay. Like Jackson, he has been solid but unspectacular. He has a career OPS+ of 91 but is only 25 and has time to mature. The tools are there and, as long as the motivation is also there, he should appear in a few All-Star games.

Justin Upton is arguably the best pick that the Diamondbacks organization has made in the last five years. He was drafted first overall in the 2005 draft out of a Virginia high school. In less than two full minor league seasons, the infielder-turned-outfielder was in the majors (seemingly) to stay. So far this season, his first full year in the majors, Upton is hitting .304/.389/.500 with an OPS+ of 126. At only 20 years of age, he has the makings of a superstar.

Right-hander Max Scherzer has been the latest first rounder to impact the major league club. He was drafted 11th overall in the 2006 draft out of the University of Missouri. Scouts have been split on whether Scherzer should be a starter or reliever at the major league level but he is currently being used as a starter. His first major league appearance, though, was as a reliever and he got a lot of people excited by pitching 4.1 scoreless, hitless innings with seven strikeouts. He got knocked around in his next appearance and allowed five earned runs. His last two starts have resulted in zero earned runs, along with three unearned runs. Overall, he has a 2.33 ERA in three starts (four appearances) and has allowed 16 hits along with seven walks in 19.1 innings. He has struck out 23.

It will be interesting to see who the Snakes target for the first pick (26th overall) of the 2008 draft of June 5.

Pitching was on the agenda for Arizona when the organization began picking players during the 2007 amateur draft. As a result, the club used four of its first six picks to take pitchers, including three college arms and one prep hurler.

Indiana high schooler Jarrod Parker went ninth overall to the Diamondbacks and then three college arms were taken: Wes Roemer of Cal State Fullerton (1st round supplemental, 50th overall), Barry Enright of Pepperdine (second round, 73rd overall), and Sean Morgan of Tulane (fourth round, 133rd overall).

Parker, 19, did not make his pro debut until 2008 and was immediately assigned to a full-season club despite his inexperience. So far this season in the Midwest League, the right-hander is holding his own with a 2.45 ERA in 36.2 innings. He has allowed 34 hits, walked nine and struck out 30.

Roemer, 21, started 2008 in High-A ball but has struggled. He has a 5.09 ERA in 46 innings. Roemer has allowed 59 hits, 14 walks and seven homers. On the positive side, he has struck out 43 batters and is inducing two groundballs for every flyball.

Enright, 22, is also in High-A ball and struggling. He has a 7.02 ERA in 42.1 innings. Enright has allowed 67 hits, five homers and 12 walks. He has struck out 38 batters. The right-hander has had three particularly bad starts where he has allowed 18 earned runs in 11 innings.

Morgan, who comes from the same college as Arizona starter Micah Owings, has yet to make an appearance in 2008 because of injury. He struggled in his 2007 debut in the Northwest League and posted a 5.46 ERA in 28 innings.

Many believe college pitchers are safer picks (and will advance through the minors quicker) than prep hurlers, but Arizona’s 2007 draft appears to be an exception to the rule.

James D’Antona has been a favorite of mine ever since he was taken by Arizona in the second round of the 2003 draft out of Wake Forest University. D’Antona has always been talented but he was slow to develop in professional baseball and has yet to appear in the major leagues despite being 26 years old.

He was left off the D-Backs’ 40-man roster the last two seasons and I kept waiting for a team to take a chance on him, given his excellent power potential and his ability to play third base, first base and catcher. In college, D’Antona showed the ability to throw 94 mph off the mound but had poor footwork at the hot corner and some doubted his drive to succeed.

In 2006 at Double-A, D’Antona hit .312/.383/.487. In 2007 at Triple-A, hit he hit .308/.362/.499. This season, in 142 at-bats, D’Antona is smoking the ball with a line of .430/.445/.676. On the negative side, he has walked only three times. But he has shown a better eye at the plate in recent years and he keeps his strikeouts down (especially for a guy with power). He struck out 19.1 percent of the time in 2006, and 11.8 percent in 2007. So far this season, D’Antona has struck out 13.4 percent of the time.

He may not be the everyday player that the D-Backs envisioned when the organization drafted him, but D’Antona has the makings of a solid bench player and pinch hitter. He’s just in the wrong organization, as the club has a solid bench, and he would be a smart acquisition for a National League team as the Mark Sweeneys and Julio Francos of the world begin to show their ages and/or hang up their spikes for good.

The San Diego Padres have some nice depth in the outfield, with at least one intriguing prospect at each level of the minor league system.

Triple-A: Chase Headley
Earlier this week I wrote about top prospect Headley who was recently converted from third base to left field. He is currently hitting .285/.356/.444 at Triple-A. In his last 10 games, Headley is hitting .395 with two homers and could be recalled any day now. The switch-hitter could stand to do some work on his swing from the right side with an OPS of only .705. He is also hitting only .233 with runners in scoring position.

Triple-A: Will Venable
Venable’s numbers have never quite matched his tools, although he has had pretty good success at the minor league level. So far this season he is hitting .289/.330/.470. After stealing 21 bases in 23 attempts last season, Venable has attempted only two steals (both successfully) in 2008.

Double-A: Chad Huffman
The former second round pick slammed 22 homers between two levels in 2007 but has yet to show that power this season in San Antonio. He currently has a line of .333/.424/.472 in 37 games. He is showing OK plate discipline with a walk percentage of 13.6 and a strikeout percentage of 17.9.

High-A: Cedric Hunter
Hunter, 20, is showing almost no power but he has the makings of a good leadoff hitter. His current line is .321/.403/.372 with only eight extra base hits (all doubles) in 156 at-bats. He could stand to walk more but it is impressive that he has more base on balls (21) than strikeouts (18). The left-handed batter is hitting .333 against southpaws.

Single-A: Yefri Carvajal
His numbers don’t wow you at the lowest level of full-season minor league baseball – .237/.275/.328 – but you have to remember that Carvajal is only 19 years of age. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .316 but has 12 strikeouts in 38 at-bats. Right now he remains an impressive collection of tools and projection.

The San Diego Padres rescued Scott Linebrink off the scrap heap back in 2003 and he rewarded them in turn with roughly four years of valuable and reliable relief work. However, the greatest value that the Padres received from Linebrink’s tenure may have come from the 2007 trade that sent him to Milwaukee.

The Padres received three mid-level prospects from the Brewers in return for Linebrink’s services and one of those pitchers – Will Inman – is proving that he may turn out to be a steal. The other two are not half bad either.

Inman was originally selected out of a Virginia high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Prior to the trade, Inman had always posted solid minor league numbers but at 6-1, 210 pounds he does not possess an ideal pitcher’s frame, which causes him to get overlooked. Since the trade, though, Inman has made sure people cannot overlook him any longer.

In seven starts in 2007 after the trade, Inman posted a 4.17 ERA in seven starts (41 innings) at Double-A San Antonio, which is a pretty good hitters’ park. He allowed 7.24 H/9 and posted an 8.78 K/9 rate. He struggled a bit with his control and allowed 4.17 BB/9.

Inman, 21, has been even better in 2008 with a return to San Antonio. In eight starts (43.2 innings) he has allowed 5.98 H/9 and has posted a 9.07 K/9 rate. Walks are still a bit of an issue with a rate of 3.71 BB/9. Over his four-year career, the right-hander now has an impressive line of 6.50 H/9, 2.80 BB/9, and 10.42 K/9. He should see Triple-A soon, and possibly the majors by the end of the season.

Southpaws Joe Thatcher and Steve Garrison were the other pitchers obtained by San Diego in the trade. Thatcher is the only one of the trio who has already appeared in the majors for San Diego. He was originally signed out of an independent baseball league after he had a poor final season at Indiana State University in 2004.

Once traded to San Diego, Thatcher, 27, posted a 1.04 ERA in eight Triple-A games and was called up to the majors. In his first taste of Major League Baseball, the lefty posted a 1.29 ERA in 22 games (21 innings) and allowed 5.57 H/9. He opened the 2008 season in the San Diego pen but was recently shipped back to Triple-A after posting a 6.75 ERA in 16 games (17.1 innings) and allowing 12.98 H/9.

Garrison, 21, was originally selected by Milwaukee out of a New Jersey high school in the 10th round of the 2005 amateur draft. He posted solid numbers through A-ball, as well as a 2.79 ERA in High-A Lake Elsinore after the trade in 2007. In 42 innings, he allowed 6.68 H/9 and posted rates of 1.29 BB/9 and 6.00 K/9.

In 2008 at Double-A San Antonio, Garrison has a 4.30 ERA in six starts (29.1 innings) and has allowed 8.90 H/9. He has struggled with his rates at 3.99 BB/9 and 5.52 K/9 and is probably headed for a future as a middle reliever or LOOGY.

So what did Linebrink do for Milwaukee? After he provided three straight seasons of 70-plus appearances between 2004 and 2006, Linebrink appeared in 27 games (25.1 innings) for Milwaukee and won two games, while losing three. He posted a 3.55 ERA. After that, though, the former second round pick of the San Francisco Giants filed for free agency and signed a lucrative contract with the Chicago White Sox.

In other words, the Brewers traded three pitchers – two of whom are left-handed – who could all easily pitch in a major league bullpen for 25 innings of middle relief. On the plus side, the Brewers will receive a supplemental first round pick (35th overall) and a second round pick (54th overall) for losing Linebrink to Chicago. Regardless, chalk one up for the Padres. If only they could draft as well as they trade.

To say the San Diego Padres have had a lot of bad luck drafting in the first round this decade would be an understatement. In the eight drafts so far, the club’s No. 1 picks have produced one Major League starter and one Top 10 prospect. The other six have crashed and burned or been derailed by injuries.

In 2000, the club began the decade by using its ninth overall selection to choose Mark Phillips out of a Pennsylvania high school. The hard-throwing lefty had control and command issues that he was unable to overcome. He was eventually shipped out to the New York Yankees, along with Bubba Trammell, in exchange for Rondell White.

2001 came along and saw the club draft infielder Jake Gautreau out of Tulane University with the 14 overall selection. He was unable to sustain his production in the upper levels of the minor leagues and was eventually traded to Cleveland for another disappointing former No. 1 pick in Corey Smith. Neither player has appeared in the majors.

In 2002 the club made its best selection of the decade when it took shortstop Khalil Greene out of Clemson University with the 13th overall pick of the draft. As we all know, Greene has gone on to be a solid, albeit unspectacular, regular at the Major League level (.252/.309/.435 line).

The club’s luck lasted just one year as it chose right-handed starter Tim Stauffer out of the University of Richmond the next season with the fourth overall pick. Stauffer was damaged goods and had a wonky shoulder. The good news is that he fessed up to the club before it handed him an obscene signing bonus. The bad news is that he told them after they wasted the fourth overall pick on him.

The club had the coveted first overall pick in 2004 but went the signability route and avoided some of the more talented (and expensive players) and took a local high school shortstop named Matt Bush. He proved within two years that he could not hit professional pitching so he took his plus-arm strength to the mound. In less than a month, though, he blew out his elbow and is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Tommy John surgery also derailed 2005 first round pick Cesar Carrillo. The right-handed pitcher was taken 18th overall out of the University of Miami. He’s in Extended Spring Training working his way back from the injury.

The Padres organization disappointed some people with its 2006 first round pick. The club chose infielder Matt Antonelli out of Wake Forest University with the 17th overall pick. He was viewed by many as a “safe pick,” or in other words an advanced college hitter with a modest ceiling for development. Antonelli then quieted the complainers with an outstanding 2007 while playing in some very good hitters’ ballparks. He’s struggling at Triple-A this season.

The Padres have to be pretty sick of paying for Tommy John surgeries. Less than a month after beginning his career, the club’s 2007 No. 1 pick, Nick Schmidt, succumbed to the surgery. The 23rd overall selection was viewed as another “safe pick” with a limited ceiling. Those players are supposed to get to the majors quickly, but Schmidt’s time line will be set back one to two years because of the injury.

Yeah, it’s a pretty depressing list when you look at it all together. Maybe 2008 will be better when the club has another shot at the 23rd overall pick. It can’t get much worse.

Last week I talked about the Cincinnati Reds’ depth at third base. The San Diego Padres found themselves in a similar situation with current third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, as well as prospects Matt Antonelli and Chase Headley. Unlike the Reds organization, which has had to move prospects to third base because of defensive deficiencies elsewhere, the Padres have been able to move prospects off third base to other positions: Antonelli to second base and Headley to left field. Those moves alleviate some of the stagnation issues that come with too much depth at any one position.

Kouzmanoff is by no means a top five third baseman in the National League. But to be fair, judging offensive contributions from offensive players on the Padres is never easy given the park that they play half of their games in. Overall, he is hitting .278/.310/.383 with three homers in 162 at-bats. Let’s take a look at his home and away splits:

Home: 80 AB .250/.265/.363 2 HR
Away: 82 AB .305/.352/.402 1 HR

Obviously, Kouzmanoff has a much nicer average at home but the power numbers are not that dissimilar. He is displaying below average power for a third baseman both on the road and at home. Kouzmanoff is also not a great defensive third baseman by any means. Should either Antonelli or Headley prove unable to handle their new positions in the long run, Kouzmanoff may not be showing enough to make himself irreplaceable.

Antonelli came close to winning the second base job this spring but was assigned to Triple-A for more seasoning, which probably turned out to be a good thing for the 2006 first round pick. He has taken OK to second base defensively, but his bat has struggled this season and he is hitting only .185/.329/.336 in 119 at-bats. Last season, Antonelli’s offence was probably a little overrated after he hit .314/.409/.499 in 347 High-A at-bats and .294/.395/.476 in 187 Double-A at-bats. Both of those parks – Lake Elsinore and San Antonio – are good hitter’s parks in good hitter’s leagues. Given that Antonelli came into 2008 with less than 200 at-bats above A-ball, it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise that he has struggled. With Tadahito Iguchi doing a respectable job of bridging the gap from present to future, the Padres can afford Antonelli the time to develop a little further.

Headley is having a better offensive time at Triple-A than Antonelli, although he did struggle early on in April. In his last 10 games, Headley has hit .429 (18-for-42) and has his line up to .294/.368/.441. Last season, the 2005 second round pick really put himself on the prospect map with a .330/.437/.580 performance at Double-A San Antonio. His power is down noticeably this season but he’s holding his own. With the Padres last in the National League in a number of key offensive categories (runs, average, on-base percentage and slugging) it may not be long before the club decides to shake things up. With less-than-inspired offensive performances from the likes of Justin Huber, Scott Hairston, Paul McAnulty and Jody Gerut, it may not be long before we see Headley patrolling left field for the Padres.