Archive for Minor Leagues

Red Hot Corner

The Cincinnati Reds have some depth at the hot corner, especially in the lower levels of the minor leagues. There is no rush for these players to develop as currently major league third baseman Edwin Encarnacion is showing signs of developing into a solid, albeit unspectacular, everyday player. He is currently hitting .258/.360/.492 but is showing increased home run power and better strike zone judgment with only 18 strikeouts and 19 walks. His walk percentage has almost doubled over last season from 7.2 to 13.7 percent. His strikeout percentage is down slightly from 17.1 to 15 percent.

Juan Francisco is a 20-year-old Dominican playing at High-A Sarasota. He’s hitting .275/.290/.464 with 11 doubles and five homers in 138 at-bats. Unfortunately, he has only three walks and 29 strikeouts. Last season he walked 23 times and struck out 161 times in 534 at-bats. He hits very well against left-handers, including .360/.379/.520 this season. The talent is there, he just needs to learn the strike zone and show a little more patience.

Brandon Waring, 22, is an intriguing prospect and he has flashed excellent power potential, both in college and in pro ball, after being signed in the seventh round of the 2007 draft. Currently in the Midwest League, Waring is hitting .302/.377/.575 with eight homers in 106 at-bats. He has also driven in 25 runs in 29 games. Unfortunately, like Francisco, he has work to do with the strike zone with only eight walks and 39 strikeouts. Last season, in the Pioneer League, Waring hit 20 homers in 267 at-bats but struck out 83 times.

I took a look at Todd Frazier yesterday, while reviewing the Reds’ 2007 draft and this is what I said him, in case you missed it: Frazier was the 34th overall pick out of Rutgers University and has been on the prospect radar since he was a kid. He also has two brothers who have played pro ball. Frazier is currently at shortstop but many feel he will have to move to third base as he climbs the ladder towards a major league career. He had a nice debut in 2007 and hit .319/.405/.538 over two levels. The Reds were cautious with him in 2008 and started him out at Dayton, where he ended last season, and he hit .321/.402/.598. The right-handed batter beat up on southpaws to the tune of .414/.485/.724. He was just promoted to High-A ball.

Depth is always nice to have and the Reds have a ton of it at the third base bag. All the players looked at above have things to work on, but the talent is undeniable.


The Little Red Machine

The Cincinnati Reds do not get enough credit for having a solid 2007 draft. Almost one year later, the Reds continue to reap the rewards of that draft, after the club skillfully combined prep and college picks together to creating an intriguing mix for the future.

Catcher Devin Mesoraco, drafted out of a Pennsylvania high school, was the club’s highest pick at 15th overall. He was a late riser as the draft approached and was not considered a first round pick when the high school season began in 2007. He has a nice combination of skills but he adjusted to pro ball slowly, not surprisingly for a 19 year old, and hit .219/.310/.270 in the Rookie League in 2007. He began 2008 in Extended Spring Training but has just been promoted to full season ball in the Midwest League, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts.

Todd Frazier was the 34th overall out of Rutgers University and has been on the prospect radar since he was a kid. He also has two brothers who have played pro ball. Frazier is currently at shortstop but many feel he will have to move to third base as he climbs the ladder towards a major league career. He had a nice debut in 2007 and hit .319/.405/.538 over two levels. The Reds were cautious with him in 2008 and started him out at Dayton, where he ended last season, and he hit .321/.402/.598. The right-handed batter beat up on southpaws to the tune of .414/.485/.724. He was just promoted to High-A ball.

Right-handed pitcher Scott Carroll, who was drafted 104th overall out of Missouri State University, has been solid but not flashy. After a nice performance in the Pioneer League last season, Carroll has again been good, but not overwhelming, in the Midwest League. He has a 2.97 ERA in six starts, but he has struck out only 14 batters in 30.1 innings of work. He has done a respectable job of keeping the ball in the yard and has allowed only one homer. If he can miss a few more bats, he could be an interesting middle-of-the-rotation option.

Right-hander Kyle Lotzkar (British Columbia high school, 53rd overall), infielder Neftali Soto (Puerto Rico, 109th overall) and catcher Jordan Wideman (Ontario high school, 349th overall) are some other interesting prospects to keep an eye out for when the short season leagues begin play shortly after the June Amateur Draft.


Is Stubbs too Stubborn to Succeed?

Drew Stubbs has always been a talented ballplayer. He was a third round pick of the Houston Astros out of high school (He’s a Texas native) but chose to attend the University of Texas. He was then selected in the first round (eighth overall), and signed, by the Cincinnati Reds in 2006.

The 6-5, 190 pound outfielder looks like a ballplayer; he oozes tools and has excellent makeup. But there have always been questions about how well he would adjust to pro ball with a long swing and a history of difficulties with breaking balls.

Those concerns appeared justified after Stubbs, now 23, made his debut in the Pioneer Rookie League and hit only .252/.368/.400, which should be considered below average for a collegiate player in a league comprised mostly of high schoolers and raw Latin players. He also struck out 64 times in 210 at-bats.

The next season in 2007, Stubbs started out slowly in the Midwest League while many other top 2006 college picks were already in High-A ball. He was striking out at an alarming rate and many said those Ks would be the downfall of his professional career. Then the Dayton management, tired of seeing the players strikeout too much, forced everyone to choke up on the bat for a week.

Stubbs was so successful with that approach that he kept doing it, even after the choking-up enforcement was lifted. In the first year and a half of his career, Stubbs struck out 190 times in 161 games. In his last 24 games of 2007, Stubbs struck out only 16 times.

This season, though, the strikeouts are back with 34 in 31 games (115 at-bats), but he is hitting .296/.388/.470. Overall in 2007, he struck out 28.6 percent of the time. In 2008, he’s at 29.2 percent. If Stubbs can maintain his triple-slash rates while striking out at the same pace, he can still be an effective everyday ballplayer. However, it’s hard to believe he can continue to do so once he hits the better pitching that comes at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, let alone the majors.


Are the Reds Ready to Get a Little Greener?

Entering 2008 the Cincinnati Reds were supposed to feature two exciting rookies. No, not Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto. All the hoopla surrounding the Reds’ future involved top prospects Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey. But a funny thing happened along the way during spring training: It was decided Bruce and Bailey needed some more seasoning. And the emergence of Cueto, as well as the late March addition of free agent Corey Patterson, afforded the Reds that luxury.

Votto has enjoyed a solid season in Cincinnati, so far. He is hitting .294/.348/.506 and has four home runs in 85 at-bats. The 24-year-old Canadian has done the unthinkable: He’s taken playing time away from a veteran (Scott Hatteberg) under manager Dusty Baker’s watch.

Cueto was blowing everyone away early in the season – fans, writers and batters, alike. He’s likely hit the inevitable wall, after allowing 12 runs in his last two starts (including a stinker where he allowed seven runs in 1.2 innings against the surprising St. Louis Cardinals). In truth, his first major league appearance probably did him more harm than good after he caught everyone’s attention by allowing one run on one hit over seven innings, while striking out 10. The bar was raised a little too high after that, and he’s only been ‘pretty good’ since then, as his 5.40 season ERA shows.

Meanwhile, down on the farm in Triple-A, Bruce and Bailey are quietly going about their business showing that they are ready whenever the Reds organization decides it needs them.

Bruce, who turned 21 a month ago, is hitting .284/.308/.505 with five homers in 109 at-bats. He still has some rough spots, as witnessed by the fact he’s racked up 27 strikeouts and only six walks. But he’s stolen seven bases in as many attempts and the left-handed batter is hitting .303 against southpaws with an .801 OPS (but no walks in 33 at-bats). He’s been slumping lately and has hit only .152 in his last 10 games with 11 strikeouts in 32 at-bats.

Bailey has had only one bad outing in six appearances for the Triple-A Louisville Bats. On April 25 against Indianapolis he allowed four runs in six innings on six hits (Oh, the horror). Other than that, he’s been great. Overall, he has a 2.29 ERA and has allowed 30 hits in 39.1 innings of work. He’s improved his control and walked just nine batters, while striking out 32. He’s still obviously working up in the zone a lot and has a GO/AO (ground out to air out) rate of 0.76. The right-handed pitcher is holding left-handed batters to a .189 average.

Given the struggles of Bronson Arroyo (8.63 ERA) and Josh Fogg (9.27 ERA), Bailey could be up before Votto celebrates Victoria Day (May 19). Bruce could potentially help ignite the offence with outfielders Ken Griffey (.228/.310/.377), Patterson (.200/.263/.433), and Adam Dunn (.221/.375/.389) struggling.


Complementing Boston

The Boston Red Sox organization has had a lot of success with its minor league system lately, thanks to the arrival of players such as Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. Both players had major impacts on Boston’s playoff run last year and they continue to hit well this season. Pedroia is hitting .293/.336/.407, while Ellsbury is currently hitting .280/.396/.440.

Those numbers are not dominating, but both players are solid complementary players – the exact type of players organizations like Boston need to produce. Because Boston is a large market club, it can afford to go out and hit the free agent market to acquire the super stars and major run producers. By producing its own complimentary players, the organization saves money by not having to overpay second-tier free agents, like a Mike Lamb or Mark Loretta, which it can then reinvest in player development.

Jed Lowrie is the most recent call-up who looks like he could have a long-term impact in Boston. He is a little more versatile than Pedroia and Lowrie can fill in at second base, third base and shortstop (although he’s best-suited to second). So far this season, Lowrie is batting .286/.333/.371 and has spent one game at second, three games at shortstop and 10 games at third.

In his career, Lowrie, 24, has hit .291/.386/.448 in 1,072 minor league at-bats. He has also walked almost as much as he’s struck out (165-186). Last season, split between Double-A and Triple-A, Lowrie hit 47 doubles to go along with 13 homers, which suggests there may be more power to come as he matures.

A switch-hitter, Lowrie has done better from the right side in recent years. Last season against southpaws at Triple-A, Lowrie hit .321/.371/.518 compared to .283/.345/.495. At Double-A, he hit .359/.400/.587 compared to .273/.413/.482. That pattern remains true in a very small sample size in 2008 at the major league level.

Other players on the cusp of providing depth in Boston include outfielder Brandon Moss (already on the 25-man roster), catcher George Kottaras and first baseman Chris Carter. The latter two were acquired in trades from other organizations.


Hey, What Do You Know… Bavasi Got it Right!

I love the contradictions in Seattle. General manager Bill Bavasi likes to keep us on our toes as he commits to aging catcher Kenji Johjima, who will be 35 years old when his contract expires. Catchers don’t age overly well and Seattle has a cheaper, younger option available. Bavasi then designated veterans Greg Norton and Brad Wilkerson for assignment. After that, he created a mini re-building process by bringing up the organization’s top two position prospects: catcher/DH Jeff Clement and outfielder Wladimir Balentien.

Good riddance to both Norton and Wilkerson, as both were holding back better, younger, cheaper players. Wilkerson (.232/.348/.304 with no homers in 56 at-bats) was also under-performing.

Although Seattle is under .500, the club has the benefit of playing in the American League West so it is less than five games out of first place. Clement and Balentien should provide some much-needed offence for a club that is middle-of-the-road offensively (seventh out of 14 teams in runs per game at 4.59) in the American League (and the club is not going to pitch its way to a title – despite being fifth in the league in ERA at this point).

But are Clement and Balentien really well-suited for spacious Safeco Field? Both prospects have a lot of their value tied up in power. Clement was doing ridiculously well at Triple-A Tacoma with a line of .397/.535/.692. He also had hit five homers in 78 at-bats and walked 22 times while striking out only 12 times. Can you say dominating?

Clement’s power may take a hit in Seattle but he is proving that he is much more than a one-dimensional slugger. He has shown the ability to hit for average and get on base. Clement, who bats left, is also hitting .391 against southpaws and .400 against right-handers. The difference, though, is in the slugging percentage: .478 against lefties, .782 versus righties. Regardless, he should do very well in Seattle, although I’d like to see him behind the dish more often than we likely will.

Balentien has even more power than Clement but he will not hit for a high average. His line at Triple-A is .254/.329/.619. Balentien also does not walk as much as Clement so there is an awful lot of value tied up in the right-hander’s power. He has hit six homers in 63 Triple-A at-bats this season after slugging 24 in 477 Triple-A games last year (and having three straight 20-plus homer seasons).

He is a proven run producer and has driven in 20 runners in only 17 games and he drove in 84 last season. In the last three seasons, Balentien has struck out 160, 140 and 105 times in roughly 440-490 at-bats. Expect some monster home runs off his bat, but also expect some bumps in the road. Some people have knocked Balentien’s effort and attitude in the past and he might end up being the type of player who performs better under constant scrutiny and when the game is on the line.

Both players had a nice start to their 2008 seasons last night against Cleveland. Balentien went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer off Cliff Lee, who has a 0.96 and had not allowed a homer all season in 37.2 innings. Clement was 1-for-1 coming off the bench.


Red Sox Have Depth at First Base

If there is one area in the minor league system that the Boston Red Sox have depth it is at first base. And a lot of it has to do with the over-sized wallet that the club has, probably as much so as its solid scouting department.

Lars Anderson was drafted in the 18th round of the 2006 amateur draft, but he was not an 18th rounder in terms of talent. The prep first baseman also was not a consensus first or second round pick so teams knew he would be a difficult sign; more often then not those players end up in college in hopes of improving their draft stock (and the subsequent paycheck).

He was given $825,000 to sign, more money than Boston’s supplemental first round pick Caleb Clay received. After sitting out the 2006 season thanks to the ongoing contract negotiations, Anderson began his career in 2007 as a 19-year-old in full-season A-ball. He batted a respectable .288/.385/.443. This season, at the hitter’s haven known as Lancaster, Anderson is hitting .300/.400/.544 with five homers in 90 at-bats.

Michael Jones, 22, was drafted out of junior college in 2004 in the 25th round and has moved slowly through the system despite a career line of .309/.387/.466. This season in Greenville, Jones is hitting a robust .419/.480/.628 in 86 at-bats.

His teammates, as well as fellow first basemen, Anthony Rizzo and David Mailman are significantly younger. Rizzo is in full-season ball despite being only 18. He was drafted in 2007 in the sixth round and received about $200,000 more to sign than the average player in that round. This season, Rizzo is hitting .373/.402/.446 in 83 at-bats, but he has yet to hit a homer.

Mailman, was drafted a round later in 2007 but received even more money to sign – $550,000 because he was strongly committed to Wake Forest University – which was almost $400,000 more than any other player received in that round. Mailman, 19, has struggled with the batter this season with a line of .203/.298/.257 but has stolen six bases in nine attempts (despite having below average speed). He has also been spending time playing left field for Greenville.

Aaron Bates, 24, was a senior draft pick in the third round of the 2006 draft after he turned down Florida in 2005 in the eighth round as a junior. Now in his third season, Bates is hitting .264/.361/.292 in 72 at-bats. He is struggling to hit for power after slugging 29 homers and driving in 101 runs last season while splitting time between Lancaster and Portland.

Chris Carter is a former 17th round pick of Arizona’s out of Stanford University, who has done nothing but hit as a pro. He has a career line of .310/.390/.519 and is in his third season at Triple-A. Carter, 25, is currently batting .302/.368/.417 but has yet to hit a homer this season with 96 at-bats to his credit.


Keeping a Rookie Pitcher Grounded

Ignore the shiny 1.50 ERA that Boston rookie Justin Masterson has after just one major league start. ERAs are overrated at the best of times. The most important numbers on Masterson’s April 24 line against the Angels were the two hits allowed in six innings and the 11-3 ground outs to fly outs. Thanks to Boston’s impressive pitching depth, he was returned to Double-A after his first major league appearance.

Masterson, 23, was originally selected by Boston in the second round (71st overall) of the 2006 amateur draft out of San Diego State University. He is already perhaps one of the best pitchers in professional baseball when it comes to inducing ground balls. This is important because ground balls cannot fly out of the ballpark for a home run. Ground balls cannot sail over the heads of outfielders for bases-clearing triples. If you can find a ground ball pitcher that can also miss a lot of bats and strike out a ton of batters, then you have something special.

And Masterson is right on the cusp of being something special. He won’t strike out a ton of batters, as he averaged 7.20 K/9 in his minor league career coming into 2008. But he doesn’t walk many batters (career 2.04 BB/9) and he keeps the ball in the yard, having allowed only eight homers in 185.1 career innings prior to this season (0.39 HR/9). Keep in mind he also pitched at the launching pad known as Lancaster and allowed only four homers in 95.2 innings. This season in the minors, Masterson was averaging 3.57 ground balls for every fly ball. Last season, between High-A ball and Double-A he averaged 2.46 – including 2.05 at Lancaster and 3.52 in Portland.

The best ground ball pitchers in the majors in 2007 included Derek Lowe, Felix Hernandez, Fausto Carmona and Brandon Webb, heady company and a group for Masterson to aspire to join.


From Sleeper to Surgery to Sleeper Yet Again

Davis Romero, who just turned 25, is not the most well-known southpaw with the last name ‘Romero’ in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. That distinction goes to 2005 first round draft pick Ricky Romero. Davis is a diminutive starting pitcher (5-9, 140) from Panama, who was signed as a non-drafted free agent in 1999.

Prior to 2007, Romero posted career minor league numbers of a 3.37 ERA, 8.15 H/9, 2.43 BB/9 and 9.70 K/9. Impressive numbers but Romero continually had to prove himself at every level due to his size, or lack thereof. In 2006, Romero finally earned a late-season promotion to Toronto and posted a 3.86 ERA in 16.1 innings, but allowed 10.47 H/9 and 3.31 BB/9. He also had only 5.51 K/9.

In the spring of 2007, Romero’s body broke down and he underwent labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder and missed all of 2007. The good news, though, is that he is back and pitching in Triple-A Syracuse. The even better news is that Romero has looked very good, considering the severity of the surgery – one that many pitchers never make it back from.

While throwing with a strict pitch count, Romero has posted a 1.54 ERA in four starts. Over 11.2 innings, Romero has allowed only four hits and two runs. He has also struck out 13 and has not allowed a hit to a left-handed batter. On the down side, Romero has walked seven and is allowing as many flyballs as groundballs.

Even so, Romero is an interesting player to keep an eye considering the scarcity of quality left-handed pitching at the major league level.


Banking on a Fresh Start

The San Diego Padres made a seemingly insignificant roster move yesterday. The club claimed right-handed pitcher Josh Banks off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays, after the Jays designated him for assignment when Shawn Camp was added to the roster. Banks is exactly the type of pitcher that can thrive at Petco Park and his stuff is much more suited to A) the National League, and B) a spacious park.

Banks, 25, is a former second round draft pick from the 2003 draft, who was actually a fringe first rounder until blister problems hampered him during his junior season at Florida International University. The track record for success is there. He blew through the lower levels of the minors with his plus control but hit a wall in Double-A at the age of 21.

The numbers tell it all about Banks. In 2005 in Double-A, Banks walked a total of 11 batters in 162.1 innings (that’s a 0.61 BB/9). But the next season in Triple-A, Banks allowed 35 homers in 170.2 innings. From 2005 to 2007 his strikeout totals dipped from 8.04 K/9 to 6.64 K/9 to 5.38 K/9.

Banks doesn’t walk anyone; in fact it seems like he would rather give up a hit – even a home run – than walk someone. Unfortunately, he gives up a lot of homers because he works up in the zone and leaves too many pitchers over the heart of the plate. His control is good, but his command is not as impressive. He throws six or seven pitches, including an 88-92 mph fastball that is a little too straight, a splitter (his out-pitch), slider, curve and change-up.

Banks is likely headed down to Triple-A Portland but keep that name in mind when the Padres organization needs its next Cla Meredith or Heath Bell or Chris Young. A change of scenery may be all that he needed.