Archive for Minor Leagues

Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/29/15

11:57

Kiley McDaniel: Giving you guys a minute to get some questions in before I start my yapping

12:05
Comment From Some Guy
What are you hearing about the teenage Cuban defector “Lazarito” that’s currently training in Haiti?

12:06

Kiley McDaniel: Fitting to start with one of the two buzziest topics among scouts right now. The hype on this kid is already pretty heavy and many heavy hitters haven’t really seen him before. I was going to write something about him this week, but it wouldn’t have too much hard info, so I figured it may be better for the chat.

12:12

Kiley McDaniel: So he’s a 16 year old Cuban named Lazaro Armenteros that defected. He’s about to start open workouts and I’ve talked to some scouts that saw him in int’l tourneys and one guy that saw him working out for smaller groups of scouts in the Caribbean recently.

He’s a built 6’2/205 with some projection, 65-70 speed, at least plus raw power and at least a plus arm, with the grades varying a bit on each of those grades given the incomplete looks and an age where things are still improving, but the lowest I’m hearing so far on those tools is 60. It’s a CF/RF fit, though he’s played some 1B/3B. You can see why Yasiel Puig is a common name mentioned as a similar player.

He’s more physically developed that almost all the recent big July 2 names you’d ask me to compare him to and the guys I talked to said he isn’t a tools goof with no feel, he’s actually got some instincts.

You can try to triangulate this and you end up in the Yoan Moncada type territory ($31.5M bonus from BOS that came with $31.5M penalty and two-year sanctions on signings over $300K) pretty quickly. Hard to say for sure if it’ll be above or below that, but everyone I’ve talked to said it will be huge money.

Way too early to know a team to project, but I’ve said many times that all the top Cubans this period will be tied to the Dodgers by default since they have limitless amounts of money and are going over during this period…which was a direct result of passing on Moncada late last period to instead go over for more than just one player. There’s a number of other Cubans that would be $5M+ types and would be pool-eligible once they get cleared to sign…so the Dodgers may finally find their financial limits in this market, but not without getting plenty of talent first.

12:16
Comment From Blaine
Wanted to thank you for the top notch content. You do a great job! I was just wondering what upside do you see in Blake Rutherford? How far is he from. Superstar draft prospect, 60 FV? And as a Braves fan, I see the Phils going with an arm at 1, do you think the Braves are in on Rutherford?

12:19

Kiley McDaniel: And now to the other topic getting buzz in scouting circles right now. I’m in the final stages of wrapping up my calls/emails on the draft list and there’s been some shuffling from the off-the-cuff names I’ve been mentioning recently in chats/twitter.

Rutherford has slipped a few spots but is still in the top tier of players, which is probably 6-7 names. He’s the oldest of the top prep prospects and is a tweener defensively without much physical projection. So, while the now ability is really good, he still projects and a top 10 pick, and he may have looked the best over the summer of this group, you can see why some scouts may downgrade him a bit when projecting into the future.

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Projecting Milwaukee’s Slew of Late-September Call-Ups

On Monday night, the Biloxi Shuckers, the Brewers Double-A affiliate, fell to Chattanooga in the Southern League championship. Following the loss, the Brewers rewarded several members of the Biloxi squad with promotions to the big leagues. Among Tuesday’s call-ups were: outfielder Michael Reed, infielder Yadiel Rivera, and right-handed pitchers Yhonathan Barrios, Adrian Houser, Jorge Lopez and Tyler Wagner. Let’s have a look at what the data have to say about these prospects. (Note: WAR figures represent projected WAR totals through age-28 season, according to KATOH system.)

Michael Reed, 4.5 WAR

Michael Reed opened the year with Double-A Biloxi, and was promoted to Triple-A on August 1st. He was later reassigned to Double-A for the playoffs to get a few more reps. All told, the 22-year-old hit a respectable .270/.377/.408 on the year with an impressive 27 stolen bases.

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Projecting Twins Outfielder Max Kepler

Shortly after the Chattanooga Lookouts took home the Southern League championship on Monday, the team’s best player packed his bags for the big leagues. That player, of course, was Max Kepler, who will spend the final two weeks of the season in Minnesota following a well-deserved promotion.

Kepler put up crazy good in the minors this year. The 22-year-old spent nearly the entire season at the Double-A level, where he hit an absurd .322/.416/.531 in 112 games, while also kicking in 18 steals in 22 attempts. Kepler also accomplished the rare feat of walking more than he struck out this year, posting walk and strikeout rates of 14% and 13%, respectively. Even more impressively, he complemented this control of the strike zone with a healthy amount of power. Although he hit just nine homers on the year, his 32 doubles and 13 triples at the Double-A level produced an isolated power of .209.

There isn’t much to dislike about Kepler’s minor league performance this year. He drew walks, rarely struck out, clubbed oodles of extra base hits and stole a fair amount of bases. In other words, he did it all; and as a result, KATOH’s very bullish on him. My system projects him for an impressive 13.2 WAR through age 28, making him one of the highest-ranked prospects in the game. This represents a dramatic improvement over the weak 1.1 WAR yielded by his 2014 campaign.

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Projecting Rockies Call-Ups Cristhian Adames & Tom Murphy

At 60-84, the Rockies are not merely way out of contention, but also mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The team’s in full on rebuild mode these days, and simply put, there aren’t all that many exciting players on their roster. However, they’ve called up a couple of interesting hitters this September who could ultimately develop into useful contributors and help out the next competitive Rockies team: infielder Cristhian Adames and catcher Tom Murphy.

Cristhian Adames

Let’s start with 24-year-old Cristhian Adames, who’s a good bit closer to being ready for the big leagues than Murphy. Adames has hit a loud .391/.440/.435 in semi-regular playing time the last couple of weeks, and has played each of the past few days while filling in for the injured Jose Reyes. Over half of Adames’s balls in play have fallen for hits, which has certainly played no small role in his recent success. But even so, pushing .400 is a great way to make a positive impression.

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Tossed: Court Dismisses Minor League Wage Increase

Over the last couple years, the battle for higher wages for minor league baseball players has been fought on several legal fronts. The highest profile challenge has come in the form of litigation claiming that the minor league pay scale — under which minor league players often earn as little as $3,000 to $7,500 per year — violates the nation’s minimum wage laws.

At the same time, however, a separate lawsuit filed last December attacked the problem from a different legal angle. In Miranda v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball, four former minor league players asserted that Major League Baseball’s minor league pay practices violate the Sherman Antitrust Act. In particular, the players argued that MLB and its thirty teams have illegally conspired to fix minor league players’ salaries at below-market rates not only by agreeing to a uniform, league-wide salary scale for minor league players, but also by artificially reducing the size of the signing bonuses that entry-level players receive under MLB’s domestic and international signing bonus pool rules.

As I noted at the time the Miranda case was filed last year, the plaintiffs in the suit faced at least one major impediment in their attempt to challenge the minor league pay practices under the Sherman Act: baseball’s antitrust exemption. Indeed, soon after the case was filed, MLB filed a motion asking the court to dismiss the lawsuit in light of its antitrust immunity.

Given that precedent, it should come as little surprise that Judge Haywood Gilliam dismissed the Miranda suit on Monday, concluding that MLB was shielded from the plaintiffs’ claims by virtue of its antitrust exemption.

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Projecting Yankees Catching Prospect Gary Sanchez

Now that the minor league regular seasons have come to a close, and we’ve reached the ides of September, most of the noteworthy roster-expansion call-ups are behind us. Nearly all of the players who were expected to have substantial impacts on the pennant races came up on the first of the month or shortly thereafter. However, a few more prospects were promoted over the weekend, as minor league clubs were eliminated from their respective playoffs. The most notable of the rookies called up over the weekend was probably Gary Sanchez, a catcher in the Yankees organization.

Sanchez has been on the prospect radar for a few years now, ever since the Yankees gave him a big bonus to sign out of the Dominican as a 16-year-old back in 2009. Sanchez hit an excellent .286/.350/.496 (134 wRC+) over his first three seasons in the minors, but followed it up with a less impressive .261/.329/.405 (107 wRC+) between High-A and Double-A in 2013 and 2014. The primary culprit for the change was a drop-off in power, which manifested itself in substantially lower isolated power figures. However, Sanchez’s pop made a comeback in 2015, during which he split time between the Double-A and Triple-A.

Sanchez

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Projecting Javier Baez and Quantifying His Improvements

Taking full advantage of the September roster expansion, the Chicago Cubs called up 22-year-old infielder Javier Baez to help fortify the team’s middle-infield situation. This isn’t Baez’s first taste of the big leagues. In fact, he doesn’t even qualify as a rookie anymore. As you probably recall, he spent the final two months of 2014 season in the majors, where he turned in a historically bad performance as the team’s second baseman.

Just how bad was it? Baez hit a pitcher-esque .169/.227/.324 in 52 games with the Cubs last year. His on-base percentage was the lowest of any hitter who recorded at least 200 plate appearances. Most alarming of all was his 42% strikeout rate, which made him the only player in the game’s history to have a strikeout rate above 40% in more than 200 plate appearances.

After his strikeout woes continued into this year’s spring training, the Cubs had Baez open the year in Triple-A, and kept him there until last week. Baez hit pretty well following his demotion. In 70 games, he hit .324/.385/.527 — which was good enough for a 144 wRC+. That’s markedly better than his 108 wRC+ at the same level last year. Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 9/8/15

11:58
Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be back in a few moments to answer your fantasy football start ’em/sit ’em questions for week 12. Thanks!

12:13
Comment From Fitch+McTeer
Have Archie Bradley, Jon Gray and Henry Owens held firm on their FV grades or have any slipped? Do any of these three have a high risk to bust?

12:16
Kiley McDaniel: Preseason, Gray was the lowest 60 and Bradley/Owens were the high end of 55, just a few slots behind. So, basically there were all the same in the 55-60 area. The only slight change is Gray slid down a few spots to a 55 and all three missed the in-season update since they have big league time but not enough to graduate and just missed the top 26, which includes all the 60’s and a few 55’s http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…Being power-based righties, Bradley/Gray have more risk than Owens, but trying to guess who will bust even with AAA/MLB arms isn’t very easy.

12:16
Comment From Emmett
Theoretically, if a hitter had an 80 grade hit tool and 50 raw power, could the power actually play up in games because of the amount of quality contact they would make?

12:17
Kiley McDaniel: Yep and that happens with some big leaguers like Mauer, but it’s very rare and to project a 70-80 bat that would make this happen, means it’s very tough to predict in advance since 70-80 bat projection in the minors means top 10 prospect in the game.

12:17
Comment From Fitch+McTeer
Can Richie Shaffer be the starting 1B in TB next year? Or will they re-sign superstar James Loney to block him?

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Projecting Corey Seager

To say the Dodgers have a surplus of infielders on their roster would be an understatement. Justin Turner, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Enrique Hernandez, Alex Guerrero and Jose Peraza all have their merits as major leaguers, and all happen to play either second base, third base or shortstop. Not all of them have had the best of seasons this year, but still: that’s seven players capable of playing the infield for just three spots.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, the injury bug has taken a huge bite out of that infield depth. Kendrick, perhaps the team’s best infielder, has been out for nearly a month with a hamstring strain. Peraza and Hernandez, who’s been on a tear of late, also went down with hamstring strains last week. Suddenly, the Los Angeles didn’t look all that deep in the infield, especially considering how poorly Utley and Rollins have hit this year.

Enter Corey Seager. In an effort to shore up their ailing infield, the Dodgers summoned their top prospect to the big leagues last week, providing them with another option at shortstop and third base. Seager was the consensus top prospect left in the minor leagues at the time of his call-up. He topped just about every outlet’s mid-season prospect list this summer, and his .300/.346/.464 performance since August 1st certainly hasn’t diminished his case. Overall, Seager hit .293/.344/.487 in 125 minor-league games this year, with all but 20 of those games coming at the Triple-A level.

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Astros’ Paulino Another Find in Recent Trade

The Houston Astros acquired right-hander David Paulino and outfielder Danry Vasquez from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline in 2013 for a two-month rental of reliever Jose Veras. At the time Vasquez was a rising prospect for the Tigers and the centerpiece of the deal. Paulino was nothing more than a rail-thin project to sweeten the pot.

A lot has changed since then: Paulino has bulked up, his fastball has gained velocity and the breaking ball has taken a step forward developmentally. Across three levels of A-ball this season, the 21-year-old boasts an impressive 72:19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Here are my notes from seeing Paulino in extended spring training this year.

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