On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:

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The Washington Nationals finalized a one-year contract with Chien-Ming Wang yesterday, agreeing to pay the sinkerball specialist $4 million with various incentives in 2012. The move helps shore up a starting staff that finished 20th in the game with 10.7 WAR last season, or at least that’s the plan.

Wang, 32 in March, returned to the mound late last June after recovering from a torn shoulder capsule, an injury that kept him on the shelf for basically two full calendar years. He pitched to a 4.57 FIP with a 53.4% ground ball rate in eleven starts and 62.1 IP, finishing strong with 16 strikeouts and zero walks in his final four outings. Wang never has been and never will be a strikeout pitcher, owning a career 4.11 K/9 and 5.1% whiff rate. He limits walks (2.58 BB/9) and gets his grounders (59.5%), that’s pretty much it.

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The Washington Nationals organization has come a long way in a short period of time. The former Montreal Expos club suffered from tight budgets due to MLB control while a suitable buyer was found. As a result, the ability to acquire top-notch talent via the amateur draft and international free agency was all but snuffed out. Some smart, aggressive drafting by the current front office has turned the minor league system around in a hurry.

1. Bryce Harper | RF/LF
BORN: October 16, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season (A+/AA in 2011)
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, Nevada JC (first overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

SCOUTING REPORT: Harper comes as close as anyone not named Mike Stanton to have legit 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also has a very good eye for his age, although he doesn’t handle off-speed pitches as well as the hard stuff but that should improve with experience. He has the chance to be a four- or five-tool player.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Despite the immense scrutiny that followed Harper everywhere he went, the 18-year-old former catcher quieted doubters. He hit .318 with a .236 ISO rate in 258 at-bats in A-ball. He was jumped to double-A and posted a triple-slash line of .256/.329/.395 in 129 at-bats. His power slipped to an .140 ISO but the decline in numbers is not concerning considering his age.

YEAR AHEAD: Harper will almost certainly return to double-A to begin the 2012 season, although a strong spring could vault him to triple-A. It would not be a shock to see the teenager in Washington by August. Even so, he’ll probably struggle a little bit with advanced pitchers since he only has 118 games of professional experience under his belt (including the ’10 Arizona Fall League).

CAREER OUTLOOK: There isn’t anyone on the current 25-man roster that possess any sort of threat to Harper’s eventual playing time once the organization deems him MLB-ready. It’s hard not to predict massive success for Harper, although there are still concerns over his maturity and we’ve seen what that can to do players’ careers.

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Thanks to Patrick Newman for his help in writing and researching this article.

Judging from the first responders to the coming storm over the Pacific, this title bears repeating: Yu Darvish is not Daisuke Matsuzaka. The natural search for comps, paired with the disappointment that was Matsuzaka’s career, will lead to suspicion when it comes to the newest ace slated to come over from Japan. Why should it work out this time if it didn’t work out the last couple times? But there are real differences between the two pitchers that could use a little emphasis.

Consider this list your consolation if you are dumbfounded by the posting fee that your team will spend simply for the right to speak with Darvish.

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Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

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The corner outfielder often gets lumped into the mix with the first basemen / designated hitter types. You might call that part of the market the ‘last piece saloon.’ But, Raul Ibanez aside, corner outfielders need to be able to run a little bit, too.

Oh, would you look at that, Ibanez is a free agent. But who needs a corner outfielder at all? Depending on how they put their team together, the Braves could maybe use another outfielder. The Red Sox have an opening, but after their last high-priced acquisition in the outfield, and their plethora of in-house options, it might not be a priority. Both Chicago teams are a maybe, with the NL version more probable. Do the Dodgers have any money? The Giants will sign one for sure. The A’s will wait for a bargain, as they always do. The Mariners have to be considered dark horses for any piece of offense. The Nationals could try again. That pretty much defines your market, and it’s a pretty decent one in terms of demand.

What does the supply look like?

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Quick. Name a starting pitcher on the New York Yankees from the mid-2000’s.

Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina are the gimmes. Andy Pettitte. Javier Vazquez. Carl Pavano. Kevin Brown. Orlando Hernandez. Chien-Ming Wang.

Chien-Ming Wang. The Taiwanese sensation is famous enough in his home country to incite a murder, but is routinely overlooked when reminiscing over quality starters throughout the past decade.

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This kicks off a position-by-position series that will look at the upcoming free agents. Because there are fans of 26 teams out there already thinking about next year and how their team can get better, that’s why.

Top Shelf
Ramon Hernandez
Not a single free agent catcher qualified for the batting title. Among those that managed 200 PAs, though, Hernandez led the crew in both batting average and wOBA. He actually managed offense that was 11% better than the league average, which is like wow for a catcher. The position managed a .245/.313/.389 line, and Hernandez had a .282/.341/.446 line. That would make him the offensive class of the free agent class. And by Matt Klaasen’s most recent catcher defense rankings, he graded out as top-tier as well. So why might the Reds let him go? Well they have Ryan Hanigan in hand and Devin Mesoraco on the way, so they don’t need to spend that money. Also, Hernandez is 36 years old, has averaged 337 PAs over the past three years, and is as likely to be below-average with the bat as he is to be above-average (or more likely below, given he’s another year older). Even though his defense is at least decent and the Dodgers are a possibility, the best fit for him might be an American league team that can shuttle him between catcher and DH to keep him fresh. Could he return to Baltimore? Replace free-agent-to-be Josh Bard in Seattle? The Mariners are looking for offense at any position they can get it.
Verdict: Mariners.

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Every season some players have a power breakout (Granderson) or meltdown (Dunn). I decided to look at the players with the highest and lowest ISO increases this season and the reasons behind the changes for a few of the players.

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Livan Hernandez struggled against the Mets on Sunday, giving up six runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings. As he exited the field in the top of the sixth, his 2011 season had officially come to an end.

Hernandez isn’t injured. He isn’t on a strict innings limit either. The Nationals simply decided to shut Hernandez down for the season’s final month. Removing him from the rotation enables the team to test out various youngsters in preparation for next season. Livan didn’t put up a fight. He understood the decision and accepted it, and will embrace his new role as mentor and de facto second pitching coach.

This type of decision isn’t made every day, especially with a pitcher still as productive as Hernandez. Then again, Hernandez isn’t your every day type of pitcher, and this story will only add to his legend as one of the best characters and people in the game.

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