Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Kansas City | 20:10 ET
Carrasco (21.2 IP, 58 xFIP-) vs. Duffy (28.2 IP, 90 xFIP-)
All indications indicated that Cleveland right-hander Carlos Carrasco would sustain — given adequate health — would largely sustain in 2015 his success from 2014. FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris found, for example, that no other pitcher generated a better combination of swinging strikes and ground balls with each pitch in his arsenal. That sort of performance in combination with the plus-plus velocity he exhibited on his fastball last year suggested that he possessed both the physical tools and pitching-specific skills to produce an excellent campaign. While he’s had some difficulty in preventing actual runs over his first five starts, Carrasco has continued to record among the very best defense-independent numbers in the league, having recorded, for example, the third-best expected FIP among all pitchers with 20-plus innings — behind only Clayton Kershaw and teammate Danny Salazar. Nor is the run-scoring likely all his fault: the Cleveland defense currently sits comfortably in the bottom third among all clubs both by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Boston | 19:10 ET
Smyly (10.2 IP, 53 xFIP-) vs. Porcello (32.0 IP, 101 xFIP-)
In his first start of his season, on April 24th, Tampa Bay left-hander Drew Smyly struck out roughly 28% of the opposing batters he faced — or about eight points more than league average. In his second and also only other start, he struck out roughly 46% of the batters he faced — which is to say, many more points greater than league average. One might be inclined to say that “at this rate” Smyly should be expected to strike out 64% of Boston’s hitters today (Tuesday). One might be inclined to say that, but one is inclined to make any number of poor decisions. Like playing bridge with anyone over seventy. Or like wearing brown shoes with black pants.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio or Detroit Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at St. Louis | 20:10 ET
Wood (23.2 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Martinez (26.0 IP, 89 xFIP-)
Very hard-throwing right-hander Carlos Martinez has produced almost exactly the same strikeout and walk and ground-ball rates so far this year as he did last year. The difference: he recorded the majority of his innings in a relief capacity last season; this season, in a starting one. To the degree that pitching as a starter is more challenging than as a reliever, this is what one might call a “positive development.” Simultaneous to that, however, there are two less positive developments — namely, a decline both in Martinez’s swinging-strike rate (by about four points so far) and also his average fastball velocity (by about 2 mph currently). What this game represents is another trial in the experiment called Carlos Martinez, Baseball Pitcher — which experiment one can find commendably narrated by Cubs broadcasters Jim Deshaies and Len Kasper.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Los Angeles NL | 16:05 ET
C. Anderson (23.1 IP, 93 xFIP-) vs. B. Anderson (19.2 IP, 100 xFIP-)
It would appear to be almost a certainty that a major-league pitcher named Anderson will record a win in this game; however, it really does only appear that way. What that claim ignores are those occasions on which a starter isn’t responsible for the decision. Indeed, one finds that, in 2014, pitchers were only assessed decisions on 3425 of the 4860 games they started. Using that precedent, one might more reasonably suggest that there’s approximately a 70% chance that a pitcher named Anderson will record a win today. This, of course, ignores any specific variables regarding the actual pitchers or teams participating. But those considerations — like most other considerations — are outside the purview of this brief post.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at Houston | 19:10 ET
Walker (19.2 IP, 120 xFIP-) vs. McHugh (24.2 IP, 70 xFIP-)
By the certainly flawed metric devised by the author, no club has been more aesthetically pleasing/mostly effective than the Houston Astros. Despite having recorded the third-lowest average batter age over the first month of the season, Houston has produced a modestly above-average batting line and decidedly above-average marks — which is to say, z-scores greater than 1.0 relative to the league’s 30 teams — by the following measures: park-adjusted home-run rate, baserunning runs, and park-adjusted bullpen xFIP. Four Houston players have already posted a 1.0-plus WAR thus far this season: Jose Altuve (1.4 WAR), Jake Marisnick (1.3), Jed Lowrie (1.0), and tonight’s starter Collin McHugh (1.0).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio, Maybe.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
de la Rosa (25.0 IP, 84 xFIP-) vs. Frias (2.1 IP, 101 xFIP-)
Through four starts, right-hander Rubby de la Rosa has produced a strikeout- and walk-rate differential (18.9 points) roughly twice of what his career mark was entering the season. One possible reason for that: awful and inexplicable chance. Another possible reason, though: de la Rosa has reduced his fastball usage by about 10 percentage points while also increasing his changeup usage by roughly that same amount. He’s even thrown the latter pitch a quarter of the time to same-handed batters. With regard to Dodgers starter Carlos Frias, he throws hard and possesses above-average control — which profile suggests he might become the next Garrett Richards (who previously was a candidate to become the next Michael Pineda).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Strasburg (24.0 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. deGrom (24.1 IP, 102 xFIP-)
Washington right-hander Stephen Strasburg was an elite amateur prospect known for his plus-plus arm speed who was selected first overall in the 2009 draft. Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom was a markedly less elite amateur prospect selected 272nd overall (and signed for $95,000) in the 2010 draft. Here are their average fastball velocities roughly a month into the season: 94.2 mph and 94.0 mph, respectively. One finds that those are the seventh- and tenth-best such marks among the league’s 112 qualified pitchers). One concludes that all human endeavor is afflicted by awfulest chance.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Cleveland | 18:10 ET
Ventura (22.0 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (13.0 IP, 61 xFIP-)
This game receives a higher score than Pirates-Cubs by mere decimal points according to the author’s very proprietary and useless methodology. That Yordano Ventura has been removed from each of his last two starts, however, likely adds a layer of intrigue to this contest which widens that gap. Or if not a layer of intrigue, then a shroud of it. And if not a shroud, then perhaps a mantle. And if not a mantle, then a cloak. What one learns more than anything is that, to describe the appeal of this game, some manner of loose-fitting cloth garment is necessary. What else what one learns is that Ventura and Danny Salazar have produced the fourth-highest and absolute highest average fastball velocities, respectively, among all 145 pitchers to have thrown 10 innings as a starter.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Boston | 18:10 ET
Drew Hutchison (23.0 IP, 94 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR) faces Clay Buchholz (22.1 IP, 67 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR). Entering the 2015 season, the latter had recorded a career strikeout- and walk-rate differential of roughly 9.5 points, with 2013’s 14.4 points representing his career-high mark. Over four starts and 22.1 innings, Buchholz has produced a differential of 21.8 points (28.7% K, 6.9% BB) while also posting what would represent his career-best ground-ball rate (55.6%). What else this game represents is an opportunity to regard the eighth-best player by WAR in the majors: rookie second baseman Devon Travis. Travis has produced 1.2 wins over the first 74 plate appearances of his career.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. What follows represents the first edition of NERD scores for 2015.

Read more about the components of NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Collin McHugh (18.2 IP, 67 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR) faces James Shields (25.0 IP, 85 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR). After producing last year a strikeout- and walk-rate differential (18.7 points) that far exceeded his previously established levels, the former has both (a) exactly matched that same differential while also (b) inducing about 25% more grounders on balls in play. Probably, if not definitely, related: McHugh has replaced about 10% of his fastballs with sliders. With regard to the Padres, the current UZR figures — published on the site for the first time last night — suggest that San Diego has had predictable difficulties in converting batted balls into outs. Despite that, the club features a 30% chance currently of qualifying for the divisional series.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Probably Houston Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »