Notes
Though you might not remember it, Aaron Harang has been good before. He’s compiled a 23.3 WAR over his career. He’s posted a five-win season as recently as 2007. He has a nickname, The Harangutan, capable of turning any manner of frown upside-down.
Note: it’s come to my attention that Derek Holland and not Alexi Ogando will start tonight for Texas — proving that One Night Only is already in midseason form so far as “grievous errors” go.
Throw off the shackles of your ceaseless toil and let baseball into your life, ya dopes.
(Totally proprietary NERD scores to appear at end of April. Probably.)
Seattle at Texas | 8:05pm ET Starting Pitchers
Mariners: Erik Bedard
55.3 IP, 8.79 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 3.79 FIP, 114 ERA+ (ZiPS)
On Alexi Ogando, Part I
Let it be known that this author trusts Ranger GM Jon Daniels implicitly. If that weren’t the case before FanGraphs’ Annual Desert Pilgrimage (a.k.a. our trip to Arizona), then it’s certainly the case after the same. For it was there, at the Rangers spring-training facility in Surprise, that I saw a be-sunglassed Jon Daniels operating a golf cart. To use the word “majestic” to describe that spectacle would be to use a word inappropriately. Unfortunately, as I’m pressed for time and possess little facility with a thesaurus, it’ll have to do for now.
Regard: your weekend programming, laid out for you absolutely nothing like a patient etherized upon a table.
Friday, April 1st Boston at Texas, 4:05pm ET
• I can’t verify that Michael Jackson’s hit single “P.Y.T.” was written about Boston signings Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, but that won’t stop me from listening to it (i.e. that song) right this second.
• In mid-March, Matt Klaassen asked the question, Who’s better, Josh Hamilton or Nelson Cruz? This game will give us a conclusive answer!
• Adrian Beltre is back… and he wants vengeance. (If by “vengeance,” that is, we mean “to post another +10 UZR.”)
Just as last year, I’ll be previewing the most notable games of the day, where notable means something like, “interesting, for one reason or another, for the smarter baseballing fan.”
The NERD scores that all of America has come to love will be available at the end of April, probably.
Arizona (9) at San Francisco (4) | 10:05pm ET Starting Pitchers
Diamondbacks: Undecided (10?)
Giants: Tim Lincecum (10)
205.1 IP, 9.64 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, .323 BABIP, 49.2% GB, 9.7% HR/FB, 3.24 xFIP, 5.0 WAR
Notes
• About a month ago, a kind reader noted — sorry, I forgot on which post exactly — but this kind reader noted that “undecided” starters ought to profile as average or better in terms of NERD. I don’t know what score I’d assigned an undecided starter in that particular case. Maybe it was a 3. I was thinking to myself “replacement level,” is why. (I was thinking some other things, too, but they’re all too disgusting to reprint here. Plus, I don’t have any soy sauce.) But more often than not, “undecided” means a minor league call-up. Generally, that means good times. And even if it doesn’t mean a minor league call-up, it means suspense — which, that’s a entire genre of film and literature, so it must be good.
• “But Cistulli,” maybe you’re saying, “I’m looking at Yahoo or whatever right now, and it very clearly states that [insert name] is pitching. How could you miss that?” Well, what you’re talking about there, friend, is “up-to-the-minute information.” That’s fine, I guess. But let me ask you a question: what’s so great about up-to-the-minute information, hm? All you’re really doing is being prejudiced against the past. That may be fine for you, but look: if there’s one thing Carson Cistulli isn’t it’s prejudiced.
• Madison Bumgarner was originally scheduled to start tonight’s game for San Francisco but, as R.J. Anderson discussed yesternight in these pages, has been switched with Lincecum so that the latter could start a hypothetical Game 163 on normal rest.
• Oh, yeah: the Giants are trying to make the postseason. They’re doing a pretty good job. Here are their odds, per Cool Standings: 87.1% (Division), 3.4% (Wild Card), 90.6% (Overall).
Pittsburgh (6) at St. Louis (3) | 1:40pm ET Starting Pitchers
Pirates: James McDonald (7)
58.0 IP, 8.38 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, .322 BABIP, 30.4% GB, 2.8% HR/FB, 4.17 xFIP, 1.6 WAR
Notes
• It appears as though P.J. Walters has already made a couple of starts at the major league level this season, but the most recent was on June 1st, so he’s still super fresh and super clean. Here are his numbers at Triple-A Memphis this season: 108.2 IP, 8.78 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9, 3.73 FIP. Note that those numbers come out of the the Pacific Coast League, where a 4.79 ERA is league average. Also note that he was playing in a park (i.e. Memphis’s AutoZone park) that appears to suppress runsrelative to those inflated levels*.
• Hey, America, the Pirates might be getting better. Yes, for the season, they possess one of the league’s worst offenses, but, over the course of the last month, they’re posting the seventh-highest (raw) wOBA (.319) in the NL. It willn’t surprise the reader to know that Andrew McCutchen has been the most valuable offender over that time, recording a .437 wOBA and 10.7 wRAA, the sixth-best figure over that time in the NL (behind Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Holliday, Ryan Braun, and Joey Votto). The success of other players bodes well, though — players like Neil Walker (.396 wOBA, 7.2 wRAA, .313 BABIP) and Pedro Alvarez (.364, 3.9, .348).
One Other Game Chicago Nationals (2) at San Diego (9), 10:05pm ET
• Watching the current iteration of the Cubs is like dividing happiness by zero. Enter at your own risk.
Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.
Featured Games
Tonight’s slate of games features three favorites for the AL Cy Young award. Is that interesting? I don’t know, to be honest. But people seem to like it, so here we are.
New York Americans (6) at Toronto (7), 7:07pm ET
• Your Cy candidate is CC Sabathia.
• His credentials look exactly like this: 33 GS, 229.1 IP, 7.42 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 50.6% GB, 3.56 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 4.6 WAR
• Tonight, he opposes the AL’s fifth-best offense, with +50.4 park-adjusted runs relative to average.
• My bold prediction for the game is that Jose Bautista hits his 59th and 73rd home runs. What? Who said he had to hit them in order?
Baltimore (2) at Tampa Bay (10), 7:10pm ET
• Your Cy candidate is David Price.
• His credentials look exactly like this: 30 GS, 199.2 IP, 8.07 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, 44.7% GB, 3.54 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 4.0 WAR
• Tonight, he opposes the AL’s 13th-best offense, with -56.3 park-adjusted runs relative to average.
• My bold prediction for the game is that Reid Brignac runs around the infield, avoiding MLB officials, while coach Joe Maddon begins a “Let them play!” chant for the entire Tropicana Field crowd.
Seattle (2) at Texas (7), 8:05pm ET
• Your Cy candidate is Felix Hernandez.
• His credentials look exactly like this: 33 GS, 241.2 IP, 8.45 K/9, 2.53 BB/9, 53.5% GB, 3.07 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 6.1 WAR
• Tonight, he opposes the AL’s seventh-best offense with +38.2 park-adjusted runs relative to average.
• My bold prediction is that one of Felix Hernandez’s pitches, instead of going into the catcher’s mitt, goes straight into heaven.
A Brief Editorial
In the wake of yesterday’s wordfest, I’ve now made reference in these electronic pages to every single book I’ve ever read. Or, every single book but one, at least.
Luckily, that one last book contains shockingly prescient commentary on this year’s American League Cy Young race.
The author? Epictetus. The text? Discourses. The passage? Boo-yah:
Whenever I see a person suffering from nervousness, I think, well, what can he expect? If he had not set his sights on things outside man’s control, his nervousness would end at once. Take a lyre player: he’s relaxed when he performs alone, but put him in front of an audience, and it’s a different story, no matter how beautiful his voice or how well he plays the instrument. Why? Because he not only wants to perform well, he wants to be well received — and the latter lies outside his control.
He is confident as far as his knowledge of music is concerned — the views of the public carry no weight with him there. His anxiety stems from lack of knowledge of and lack of practice in other areas. Which are what? He doesn’t know what an audience is, what approval from an audience amounts to. Although he know well enough how to play every note on the guitar, from the lowest to the highest, the approval of the public — what it means and what real significance it has — this he does not know and has made no effort to learn.
Elsewhere, Epictetus takes pains to impress upon his reader that, really, public opinion — being fickle, having no grounds in reason — is meaningless. Hence, the only real concern for the lyrist is totally shredding on his lyre. If the public likes it, awesome. If they don’t, sorry. The point is, it’s never going to be a particularly reliable comment on the quality of lyre-playing.
As for the relevance of the passage to the present Cy Young race — to any awards-voting — well, it’s pretty clear. Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia: they’re lyre players. Media sorts, dudes watching TV: their the audience. They’re not totally clueless about what does or does not constitute good lyre-playing, but, as a group, their not geniuses, either.
The only real difference between Epictetus’s hypothetical scenario and the Cy Young case is this: the “nervousness” in question — it isn’t Hernandez’ and Sabathia’s nervousness. Really, those guys don’t seem too worried. Rather, it’s anyone who allows himself to engage in the Cy Young conversaion*.
*Perhaps “nervousness” isn’t the right word. Maybe “undue concern” makes more sense. Still, you get the idea: having an emotion about it one way or the other.
Now, that’s not to say we can’t have debates about who is and who’s not the American League’s best pitcher. “Hernandez has totally dominated,” says one. “But Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano: they have higher WARs,” says another. That’s fine. But Cy Young voting is different. I concede, it looks the same: it’s billed as the award that goes to the best pitcher. But it hasn’t always been that. So there’s no reason to fret.
Perhaps those who care about the Cy Young do so because because they care about justice. Like, of tonight’s three starters, for example, Hernandez has pretty clearly been the best pitcher this year. More strikeouts and fewer walks per nine, better groundball rate, better FIP and xFIP, better WAR. There’s also a pretty good chance he doesn’t win the Cy. Some will regard this as an injustice. Not a, you know, Sudan-sized injustice, but important in its own way.
I don’t know what to tell those people except that, ultimately, justice isn’t that important. It depends on swaying the views of many — which, as Epictetus has suggested, is of little concern. If DIPS theory has liberated us in any way, it’s to call attention to those instances where a pitcher has excelled while his team has failed him (or vice versa).
Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.
This edition of One Night Only is definitely speaking before it thinks.
Note: It appears as though the Braves organization is attempting to besmirch the good name of the author: they’ve bumped ahead Mike Minor by a day and, instead, will be starting Tommy Hanson tonight. It’s actually not much of a downgrade, so far as NERD goes. Hanson currently has an 8, which is where Minor himself would be were it not for the bad luck.
Florida (7) at Atlanta (5) | 7:10pm ET Starting Pitchers
Marlins: Alex Sanabia (4)
65.1 IP, 5.79 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 35.4% GB, 5.3% HR/FB, 4.67 xFIP, 1.1 WAR
Braves: Mike Minor (10)
39.1 IP, 9.38 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, .392 BABIP, 35.2% GB, 10.3% HR/FB, 3.86 xFIP, 0.6 WAR
Notes
• There are three teams whose respective playoff fates remain undecided: Atlanta, San Diego, and San Francisco. As of this morning, their respective postseason odds, per Cool Standings, are as follows: 59.7% (Braves), 83.0% (Giants), and 57.0% (Padres). Yeah, San Francisco has a higher chance of making the playoffs, but, speaking broadly, each of these three teams has an equal claim to the two remaining spots. Or, rephrased in Manglish: “Three go in. Only two come out.”
• Mike Minor is one of the 10-iest NERDs you’re ever gonna find. He has an above-average xFIP (3.86), has a way unlucky ERA (6.18), is posting an excellent 11.1% swinging-strike rate (while average for starters is around 7.7%, with a standard deviation of 1.9%), and is only 22 years old. Let’s give this guy a metaphorical high-five, huh?
• Osvaldo Martinez is the young shortstop who’s taken over in the absence of Hanley Ramirez, currently suffering from a sore elbow. Martinez is actually an interesting player. First, here’s what he did as a 22-year-old at Double-A this season: .300/.370/.399 (.334 BABIP), .355 wOBA, 111 wOBA+*. Also, there’s this fact: Martinez was shot in a drive-by last September in his hometown of Carolina, Puerto Rico. In this year’s Prospect Handbook, Baseball America gives him high marks for his makeup, too.
*wOBA+, courtesy of StatCorner, is park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average.
Other Notes Seattle (2) at Texas (7), 8:10pm ET
• If we’re lucky, Greg Halman will start in the outfield for Seattle tonight. Who’s Greg Halman? Well, here: imagine a player with unending athleticism but absolutely no clue at the plate. That’s Greg Halman. In 465 Triple-A PA this season, he hit 33 HR and was 15-for-19 on SB attempts. Here were his relevant batting stats: .243/.310/.545 (.315 BABIP), .364 wOBA, 111 wOBA+. That also includes a 37:169 BB:K, meaning that Halman struck out in 39.9% of his ABs.
Chicago Nationals (2) at San Diego (10), 10:05pm ET
• Have you ever read Jim Collins’ The Last Best League? If not, you should. Also, if not, here’s the thing you should know about it: it’s a “season with”-type book (a la Seven Seconds or Less or Rammer, Jammer, Yellow Hammer) about the Cape Cod League. Finally, if not, here’s the last thing you need to know: Tim Stauffer is, like, the star of the book. He was the fourth-overall pick in the 2003 draft. Then he had arm problems. Now he’s starting this super-important game.
If I Had My Druthers
• I’d write a “season with”-type book featuring Colby Lewis and Andres Torres and maybe Manny Parra.
• It’d mostly be about all of us playing volleyball together.
• Just Some Guys Playing a Harmless Game of Volleyball, Is All would be the commendably succinct title.
Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.
Notes
• I’m not a smart man, nor do I probably even know what love really is, but I get that this series is an important one. As of Thursday afternoon, here are your respective postseason odds, per Cool Standings. For the Giants of San Francisco: 42.8% (Division), 13.6% (Wild Card), 56.3% (Overall). For the Rockies of Colorado: 3.8% (Division), 3.0% (Wild Card), 6.8% (Overall).
• If not proof, the Rockies’ rather limited chance of making the postseason represents at least a modest case study in the capacity of narrative to create a gap between appearances and reality. My guess is, you ask your average smart, basebally person, and he’ll give Colorado something better than a 10% chance of making the postseason. And not only that, but even knowing that Colorado has only a 6% chance of making playoffs, I’m guessing that same smart, basebally person is still excited about this weekend’s series. The narrative (division rivals, separated by only three games, featuring pretty great pitching matchups) makes the series far more appealing than the numbers would otherwise suggest. Nor am I suggesting at all that this is a bad thing. I’m suggesting we digest this information and use it for good. Like saving puppies, or something. Yeah, something like that.
• Jhoulys Chacin has been better this year than any reasonable person could’ve possibly anticipated. See his strikeout rate up there (8.83 per nine)? That’s a higher mark for him than at any point during his minor league career. CHONE projected him this way before the season: 7.01 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 5.02 FIP. ZiPS said this: 5.46 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, 4.79 FIP. Conclusion? Computers don’t know even one thing about baseball. It’s a fact!
Other Notes Florida (7) at Milwaukee (9), 8:10pm ET
• Brewer prospect Mark Rogers makes his first-ever MLB start tonight. Rogers is a former first-rounder (2004) who missed literally all of the 2007 and 08 seasons. Here are his numbers this season from Double-A Huntsville: 111.2 IP, 8.95 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 0.24 HR/9, 3.58 FIP. Unfortunately for Rogers, StatCorner pegged his tRA+ at only 95 — even at Double-A.
Cincinnati (7) at San Diego (10), 10:05pm ET
• It’s sad, and equally true, that righty Chris Young’s last good season was 2007. He made at least 30 starts each season between 2005 and 2007. In the three years hence, he’s made 34 starts — including only two this season. What’s his contribution likely to be for San Diego’s playoff run? Really, it’s hard to say. He pitched a grand total of 6.1 IP in rehab. He had 4 K and 2 BB. That’s fine, but it’s just not a lot of information.
Pop Quiz Question
Is Carson Cistulli the type of man to avoid shameless self-promotion?
Answer
No, no, no.
Why I Bring It Up
Because I composed an ode to a couple of this weekend’s bigger football games and fooled Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats into publishing it. (Sucka.)
Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.
Colorado (6) at Arizona (8) | 9:40pm ET Starting Pitchers
Rockies: Jeff Francis (7)
95.2 IP, 5.74 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, .313 BABIP, 47.2% GB, 8.2% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP, 2.1 WAR
Diamondbacks: Ian Kennedy (5)
185.0 IP, 7.83 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, .265 BABIP, 36.5% GB, 10.8% HR/FB, 4.29 xFIP, 2.4 WAR
Some True Facts
In the event that you didn’t notice, reader, allow me to point out now that one of tonight’s starters — specifically, Ian Kennedy — has the last name Kennedy. The intelligent person you are, you’re assuredly aware that, since Massachusetts joined the Union, almost every last senator from that state has shared this surname (i.e. Kennedy). Amazingly, a few haven’t. “Who are they?” you’re definitely wondering. It’s this question that I intend to address in what follows.
Though it actually wouldn’t take long to catalog all non-Kennedy senators in Bay State history, in the interest of brevity, I’ve chosen the five with the awesomest-sounding names. For each former senator, I’ve also included his dates and some shockingly brief — but super essential — notes on his respective accomplishments. (All facts stolen directly, shamelessly from Wikipedia.)
Name:Tristram Dalton, 1738 – 1817 Notes: First-ever senator from state. Elected to Continental Congress, in 1783 and 1784, before creation of Senate. Elected Whitest Living Person three times running during mid-80s.
Name:Prentiss Mellen, 1764 – 1840 Notes: Lived most of life in giant, northern part of state lost in poker game (i.e. Maine). “Studied” “law” at “Harvard” — which, I think we all know what that means, amirite?
Name:Rufus Choate, 1799 – 1859 Notes: As senator, opposed annexation of Texas. As lawyer, once successfully defended client on grounds that accused was sleepwalking when he murdered his wife. Was told, at young age, that he had a “face made for radio” before said technology was even imagined.
Name:George Frisbie Hoar, 1826 – 1904 Notes: Argued in the Senate in favor of Women’s suffrage as early as 1886 and opposed the Chinese Exclusion Act, too. Basically, crusaded on behalf of marginalized populations for entire life. Also, gave new meaning to the term “Frisbee Whore,” if you know what I mean.
Name:Leverett A. Saltonstall, 1892 – 1979 Notes: So, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so rich. I mean, sooooooo rich. Like, rich enough that it’s surprising he ever died.
Actual Baseball Notes
• On a per-inning basis, Jeff Francis is currently in the midst of his best major league season. He’s been on the DL for about 2.5 months, so you won’t see it in gaudy totals, but he’s currently allowing fewer walks per nine and inducing more ground balls per ball-in-play than ever before.
• The Rocky starters, as a whole, have been excellent. Per our leaderboards, Colorado has the third-lowest xFIP among starting pitchers, with a 3.94 mark. Moreover, their rotation is remarkably solid: Jorge de la Rosa, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Hammel, Jhoulys Chacin, and Francis all feature xFIPs between 3.49 and 3.91.
• Colorado’s postseason odds, per Cool Standings, as of yesterday afternoon: 6.5% (Division), 3.5% (Wild Card), 10.0% (Overall).
Rufus Choate is disappointed in you.
Other Notes Florida (7) at Milwaukee (9), 8:10pm ET
• It’s one of your last chances to see Mike Stanton, who’s done this so far in his rookie campaign: 348 PA, .243/.316/.505 (.299 BABIP). .349 wOBA, 119 wOBA+, 1.8 WAR.
Seattle (1) at Toronto (7), 12:37pm ET
• Felix Hernandez will likely only make a couple more appearances this season en route to making a legitimate case for Cy Young honors despite currently standing at only 12-11.
• There isn’t, but there should be, an award for Awesomest Pitch of the Year. Lookout Landing documents what would likely be a contender for said fictional award.
Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.
Notes
This is surprising to me: Rodrigo Lopez has made 30 starts for Arizona this season. That’s only the second time he’s reached the 30-start threshold in his career, with the only other time coming in 2005. The difference between the early- and mid-decade version of Lopez and this one is about a strikeout per inning and three to five percentage points in groundball rate (with the present iteration coming out worse in both). That’s also the difference, it turns out, between a league-average and replacement-level innings eater. Lopez is the latter now.
A Decisive Decision
How bout we never talk about Rodrigo Lopez in this space again, okay? I realize it’s my fault this time, and I’m sorry. Nor do I intend to disrespect Lopez himself, who I’m sure wants really badly to be good at baseball. It’s just, generally speaking, Rodrigo Lopez represents a Type of player — capital-T, per my main man Carl to the Jung — of little interest to the baseballing enthusiast: he’s older (but not old-old), borderline replacement-level, and plays for a team that’s way out of contention.
In short, there are a lot of things I’d rather think about than Rodrigo Lopez.
Things I’d Rather Think About Than Rodrigo Lopez
• Juice
• Appellate Law
• Mexico, Entire History Of
• All the People I Know Named Tim
• Frank Tanana
Consolation Prize
As a consolation prize, I offer you these true facts:
• While currently the second-youngest team in the league (average batter age of 26.8), the D’Backs are also one of the most powerful (currently fourth in park-adjusted HR/FB). The Diamondbacks are like the child king of the majors.
• Nor does that really even count Brandon Allen, who’s also young (24) and powerful (25 homers in 469 PA at Triple-A this season). This game will be markedly more interesting with him in left field.
• Troy Tulowitzki.
Other Notes Atlanta (5) at Philadelphia (4), 7:05pm ET
• Tommy Hanson (7) and Roy Oswalt (9) are your pitchers.
• Philly’s postseason odds, per Cool Standings: 88.5% (Division), 11.4% (Wild Card), 99.9% (Postseason).
• Atlanta’s postseason odds, per Cool Standings: 11.5% (Division), 74.2% (Wild Card), 85.7% (Postseason).
Seattle (1) at Toronto (7), 7:07pm ET
• Blue Jay prospect Kyle Drabek was pretty good in his major league debut last week. Line: 6.0 IP, 26 TBF, 5 K, 3 BB, 11 GB on 18 BIP (61.1%).
• Unfortunately, the Mariners are one of the teams in this game.
Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.
