One Night Only!

This edition of One Night Only is definitely speaking before it thinks.

Note: It appears as though the Braves organization is attempting to besmirch the good name of the author: they’ve bumped ahead Mike Minor by a day and, instead, will be starting Tommy Hanson tonight. It’s actually not much of a downgrade, so far as NERD goes. Hanson currently has an 8, which is where Minor himself would be were it not for the bad luck.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Florida (7) at Atlanta (5) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Marlins: Alex Sanabia (4)
65.1 IP, 5.79 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 35.4% GB, 5.3% HR/FB, 4.67 xFIP, 1.1 WAR

Braves: Mike Minor (10)
39.1 IP, 9.38 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, .392 BABIP, 35.2% GB, 10.3% HR/FB, 3.86 xFIP, 0.6 WAR

Notes
• There are three teams whose respective playoff fates remain undecided: Atlanta, San Diego, and San Francisco. As of this morning, their respective postseason odds, per Cool Standings, are as follows: 59.7% (Braves), 83.0% (Giants), and 57.0% (Padres). Yeah, San Francisco has a higher chance of making the playoffs, but, speaking broadly, each of these three teams has an equal claim to the two remaining spots. Or, rephrased in Manglish: “Three go in. Only two come out.”
• Mike Minor is one of the 10-iest NERDs you’re ever gonna find. He has an above-average xFIP (3.86), has a way unlucky ERA (6.18), is posting an excellent 11.1% swinging-strike rate (while average for starters is around 7.7%, with a standard deviation of 1.9%), and is only 22 years old. Let’s give this guy a metaphorical high-five, huh?
• Osvaldo Martinez is the young shortstop who’s taken over in the absence of Hanley Ramirez, currently suffering from a sore elbow. Martinez is actually an interesting player. First, here’s what he did as a 22-year-old at Double-A this season: .300/.370/.399 (.334 BABIP), .355 wOBA, 111 wOBA+*. Also, there’s this fact: Martinez was shot in a drive-by last September in his hometown of Carolina, Puerto Rico. In this year’s Prospect Handbook, Baseball America gives him high marks for his makeup, too.

*wOBA+, courtesy of StatCorner, is park-adjusted wOBA relative to league average.

Other Notes
Seattle (2) at Texas (7), 8:10pm ET
• If we’re lucky, Greg Halman will start in the outfield for Seattle tonight. Who’s Greg Halman? Well, here: imagine a player with unending athleticism but absolutely no clue at the plate. That’s Greg Halman. In 465 Triple-A PA this season, he hit 33 HR and was 15-for-19 on SB attempts. Here were his relevant batting stats: .243/.310/.545 (.315 BABIP), .364 wOBA, 111 wOBA+. That also includes a 37:169 BB:K, meaning that Halman struck out in 39.9% of his ABs.

Chicago Nationals (2) at San Diego (10), 10:05pm ET
• Have you ever read Jim Collins’ The Last Best League? If not, you should. Also, if not, here’s the thing you should know about it: it’s a “season with”-type book (a la Seven Seconds or Less or Rammer, Jammer, Yellow Hammer) about the Cape Cod League. Finally, if not, here’s the last thing you need to know: Tim Stauffer is, like, the star of the book. He was the fourth-overall pick in the 2003 draft. Then he had arm problems. Now he’s starting this super-important game.

If I Had My Druthers
• I’d write a “season with”-type book featuring Colby Lewis and Andres Torres and maybe Manny Parra.
• It’d mostly be about all of us playing volleyball together.
• Just Some Guys Playing a Harmless Game of Volleyball, Is All would be the commendably succinct title.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD