One Night Only!
This edition of One Night Only is like watching paint dry — on the canvas of one of Picasso’s masterworks, that is.
(NERD scores in parentheses.)
Colorado (6) at Arizona (9) | 9:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez (8)
202.2 IP, 8.53 K/9, 3.64 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 49.0% GB, 4.4% HR/FB, 3.73 xFIP, 5.9 WAR
Diamondbacks: Rodrigo Lopez (3)
184.1 IP, 5.13 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, .300 BABIP, 37.6% GB, 12.9% HR/FB, 4.71 xFIP, 0.8 WAR
Notes
This is surprising to me: Rodrigo Lopez has made 30 starts for Arizona this season. That’s only the second time he’s reached the 30-start threshold in his career, with the only other time coming in 2005. The difference between the early- and mid-decade version of Lopez and this one is about a strikeout per inning and three to five percentage points in groundball rate (with the present iteration coming out worse in both). That’s also the difference, it turns out, between a league-average and replacement-level innings eater. Lopez is the latter now.
A Decisive Decision
How bout we never talk about Rodrigo Lopez in this space again, okay? I realize it’s my fault this time, and I’m sorry. Nor do I intend to disrespect Lopez himself, who I’m sure wants really badly to be good at baseball. It’s just, generally speaking, Rodrigo Lopez represents a Type of player — capital-T, per my main man Carl to the Jung — of little interest to the baseballing enthusiast: he’s older (but not old-old), borderline replacement-level, and plays for a team that’s way out of contention.
In short, there are a lot of things I’d rather think about than Rodrigo Lopez.
Things I’d Rather Think About Than Rodrigo Lopez
• Juice
• Appellate Law
• Mexico, Entire History Of
• All the People I Know Named Tim
• Frank Tanana
Consolation Prize
As a consolation prize, I offer you these true facts:
• While currently the second-youngest team in the league (average batter age of 26.8), the D’Backs are also one of the most powerful (currently fourth in park-adjusted HR/FB). The Diamondbacks are like the child king of the majors.
• Nor does that really even count Brandon Allen, who’s also young (24) and powerful (25 homers in 469 PA at Triple-A this season). This game will be markedly more interesting with him in left field.
• Troy Tulowitzki.
Other Notes
Atlanta (5) at Philadelphia (4), 7:05pm ET
• Tommy Hanson (7) and Roy Oswalt (9) are your pitchers.
• Philly’s postseason odds, per Cool Standings: 88.5% (Division), 11.4% (Wild Card), 99.9% (Postseason).
• Atlanta’s postseason odds, per Cool Standings: 11.5% (Division), 74.2% (Wild Card), 85.7% (Postseason).
Seattle (1) at Toronto (7), 7:07pm ET
• Blue Jay prospect Kyle Drabek was pretty good in his major league debut last week. Line: 6.0 IP, 26 TBF, 5 K, 3 BB, 11 GB on 18 BIP (61.1%).
• Unfortunately, the Mariners are one of the teams in this game.
Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.
pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I must really enjoy boring baseball. I keep tuning in to watch the Orioles play. All really low pNerd and tied for the fourth worst tNerd. There were points in the season where I didn’t mind missing games, but they’ve been winning regularly and against good opponents since the beginning of August.
Are you from the Baltimore area Piccamo?
Maybe like with park factors we can one day get advanced NERD metrics which takes into account regional preferances. This wouldn’t necessarily just be a boost to home team either, there are probably times when the local fans are much more bored with a team than the national ones. I think Dave recently wrote that he has little interest in watching Mariner’s games right now but from a national perspective they still interest me — fastest games in the league, Felix’s Cy Young candidacy, Ichiro… –, there was probably a point that Maryland fans where much more interested in Washington than Baltimore and now I imagine that has shifted even though nationally or internationally the games in Baltimore might not be all that compelling compared to the other storylines this September.
I live in NoVA these days, but grew up in MD/Southern PA. A regional preference would be much harder to determine and would require relentless polling. Probably not worth the effort at the moment.
I think that manager personalities make a game more entertaining, but is also hard to quantify.
If you google “Frank Tanana Juice”, the first result is a fellow’s blog post entitled, “Major League Baseball’s First All-Booze Team”.
http://open.salon.com/blog/t_michael_stone/2010/07/10/major_league_baseballs_first_all-booze_team
I have a hard time understanding why the Phillies are a 4 NERD team. The system seems pretty flawed.
It really is amazing that I’m debating the merits of a Carson created system named nerd.
B, you’re almost definitely correct: the score for the current iteration of the Phillies is probably too low. This is mostly attributable to the injuries the team suffered — Chase Utley’s, Jimmy Rollins’ — and to the fact that Wilson Valdez has compiled over 300 PA in meantime, thus bringing down the overall score for the team considerably.
Also, it’s because there’s no adjustment for awesome facial hair (see: Werth, Jayson) or general handsomeness (see: Utley, Chase).
Team NERD 2.0 will almost definitely have an adjustment for recent performance or injury or something, but it’s unlikely to be unveiled before the end of the season.
Until then, we must employ Good Judgment!
Mind if I take credit for the “recent performance” part of Team NERD 2.0? I’ll introduce myself with “Mr. Piccamo, contributor to Carson Cistulli’s NERD 2.0”.
I made the same argument in another one of the One Night Only posts. It was about how Josh Johnson was still commanding a very high nerd rating, even though the slump he was in made him worth a lot less than a 10 on the NERD scale.
No love for Timmy Stauffer in One Night Only! Cistulli!
also, pretty sure Lilly pitches for the Dodgers now, unless the Cubs are playing the weirdest in season split squad double header ever.
“Rodrigo Lopez represents a Type of player — capital-T, per my main man Carl to the Jung — of little interest to the baseballing enthusiast”
For people who haven’t read much Jung can we get a few notes on this? Is it actually helpful to talk about Jung at Fangraphs or just a cute sidenote?
Well, the Mariners do have Ichiro, doesn’t that make a Blue Jays/Mariners game with Drabek pitching more watchable? Ichiro is one of the rare players who even at an advanced age remains fascinating for our community game to game and season to season (look at the passion for Ichiro hall of fame discussions throughout the years at various saber pages…) and his glove, bat, and speed adds a lot of enjoyment for the rare Mariner’s game I can pick up from afar.