The Phillies and Cardinals split the first two games of their division series with each team winning in dramatic fashion. The teams now travel to St. Louis for two more contests after the Cardinals accomplished their goal of splitting on the road. However, both games could have turned out much differently had Charlie Manuel and Tony La Russa more actively managed their starting pitchers.

Kyle Lohse and Cliff Lee were each removed three batters too late, and as reactionary measures after the worst had already transpired. Being proactive in the manager’s seat is very important this time of year, when every out is crucial and a significant mistake can cripple playoff hopes. While Lohse’s implosion and non-removal seems more egregious given the nature of the Phillies comeback, the decision to leave Lee in the game for the seventh inning was just as ill-advised.

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The Cardinals steamrolled opponents in September en route to one of the biggest comebacks in baseball history. Trailing the Braves in the wild card standings by ten and a half games on August 24, they won 23 of 32 games, capturing a playoff berth on September 28, 2011: a date which will live in baseball insanity.

The Phillies, meanwhile, coasted through most of the regular season. Their 102-60 record marked a new franchise best, and that win total would have been even shinier if not for an eight-game losing streak directly after clinching in mid-September.

The regular season doesn’t matter anymore. Sure, the Phillies have home field advantage throughout the post-season — especially since the NL won the All Star Game — but playoff series are dramatic because anything can happen. The Phillies are a better team on paper, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cardinals advance to the championship series. The last time a team as hot as the Redbirds made the playoffs, the 2007 Rockies won a one-game playoff against the Padres and subsequently swept the Phillies out of the division series. That Rockies team went to the World Series. Everything clicked at the end of the month and they were able to parlay that late success into playoff victories.

The Phillies lost the second game of that division series primarily because reliever Kyle Lohse served up a grand slam to Kaz Matsui. Lohse was recently named the series opening starter for the Cardinals, adding another parallel. Matt Holliday now plays for the Cardinals, adding even another parallel. But unlike that series, where the 2007 Phillies were successful almost solely due to offensive exploits, this version of the team is built much differently, and forms a much more formidable foe. Here are the major takeaways to get you ready for this potentially very entertaining division series.

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Episode Eighty-Six
In which baseball sells itself.

Headlines
The Events of September 28th — Recapitulated!
The Saddest Story Ever — Told Briefly!
The 2011 Playoffs — Super-Previewed!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 45 min. play time.)

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The Phillies are the best team in baseball this season. Their pitching staff is amazing and the hitters are good. Here is a look at how many bad teams would need to be combined to make a team that would be comparable to the Phillies in talent.

Note: The WAR values used in the article are from 9/21 have changed a bit since I collected the data.

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Previewing the National League playoff rotations seemed like a timely and fun idea. Then I realized it would involve writing about the Phillies. What am I supposed to discuss? They’re boring — not “I’ll never have those 133 minutes I spent watching Moneyball back” boring, but “everyone knows they are good what am I supposed to talk about” boring.

Blogging about baseball is hard.

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Players who combine power and speed are fun. There, I said it. I know, shocking stuff. Most of the time such players are good, but not always. I didn’t find any bad offensive seasons with 30 or more home runs and steals, but once I lowered the standard to 20-20, well, let’s just say some guys could stand to take a few more walks. It’s a bit of a random collection, overall, so let’s take a look at the worst individual offensive seasons with at least 20 home runs and 20 steals.

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Joe Savery might be the best story of the 2011 season. The 25-year-old Phillies left-hander saw his pitching career bottom out last year — his record in Triple-A Lehigh Valley was a dismal 1-12 — and when this season began he’d been converted to a position player. By mid-year it looked like a successful transition, as the former collegiate two-way player was hitting .307/.368/.410 with high-A Clearwater, Fla. But earlier this week he made his big-league debut — as a pitcher.

The Rice University product went 5-0, with a 1.50 ERA, in 25 appearances in the minors after being moved back to the mound this season — a year in which the former first-round pick planned to give up his major-league dream so he could return to college this fall. He talked about his circuitous journey in an interview during the final weekend of the Triple-A season.

——

David Laurila: How would you describe your 2011 season?

Joe Savery: It’s been interesting. It’s also been a good year. I enjoyed being a hitter again — as well as playing the field, running the bases and sliding, all of the things I hadn’t done in awhile. It has also been very humbling, and exciting, that my arm has come back the way that it has.

DL: What is the story behind your position changes? Read the rest of this entry »

Philadelphia Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel is expected to decide soon that Roy Oswalt will be the fourth starter for the club heading into the postseason. The decision obviously would come at the expense of 23-year-old standout Vance Worley, whose rookie season has made some folks in the City of Brotherly Love wonder if he’s the real fourth ace in this star-laden rotation.

Certainly, Manuel’s decision would have been expected in April when the Phillies entered the season with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Oswalt on staff; but a flurry of ineffective starts — and two trips to the disabled list — have marred Oswalt’s season. Worley, meanwhile, now looks like the guy who should have been manning that fourth spot all along. His ERA is 3.00 — compared with Oswalt’s 3.66 — and Worley’s defense-neutral estimators all are about a third of a run better than Oswalt’s, as well.

So should Oswalt really be such a lock for that start? Well, here’s the way to tell: Tell both pitchers to warm up, and then put the radar gun on the 34-year-old’s fastball. If it’s above 91.5 mph, put in Oswalt. If it’s below — well, you know the answer.

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The Phillies entered the season with the makings of an historical rotation. With Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, their starting pitching was covered. The Braves entered the season with ridiculous pitching depth. They had a rotation filled with good major leaguers, another solid starter recovering from surgery, and some of the most renowned pitching prospects in the game waiting to make a dent.

It’s funny, then, that the performances this season from Vance Worley and Brandon Beachy — two prospects without much minor league fanfare — have helped elevate each rotation to another level.

Worley and Beachy weren’t exactly afterthoughts, but neither was expected to be a key contributor this season. In fact, Worley started the season in the minors and spent even more time on the farm when both Oswalt and Joe Blanton returned to the rotation. Fast-forward to early September and both pitchers have tallied 2.2 WAR in under 130 innings. Both pitchers are also making a big case for their inclusion in the playoff rotation.

Despite these similarities, the major difference in their production makes a comparison interesting. Worley relies on the called strike while Beachy has become a master of the whiff. Though each is fairly inexperienced as the final month of the season pushes on, their different approaches invites a discussion on the sustainability and predictive value of called and swinging strikeouts.

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In his final start of August, Cliff Lee went 8 and 2/3 innings without allowing a run. Lee plunked Miguel Cairo with pitch number 117, cuing Ryan Madson to get the game’s final out. Last night against the Atlanta Braves, Lee finished where he started, using only 100 pitches en route to his 200th strikeout and 6th complete game and 6th shutout of the season.

Lee is now at 106 batters faced without allowing a run — 29 and 2/3 straight scoreless innings across 4 starts. Wow.

Despite striking out an uncharacteristically low number of batters (6), Lee instead trolled the Braves hitters by inducing 14 ground balls (second only to his present season high of 17 in his complete game against the Cardinals) and allowing nary a walk.

Last night’s shutout makes complete game number 6 for ol’ Cliff Lee, pushing his statistics down to: 2.47 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 2.76 xFIP, and a 2.67 SIERA.

Lee ranks 3rd in ERA, 3rd in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, and 3rd in SIERA. And he now leads the majors in shutouts with 6, ahead of James Shields (4) and Derek Holland (4). In the NL, it’s not even close:

When it comes to the 2011 NL Cy Young race, it presently comes down to just three fellas: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Clayton Kershaw. Yes, one could make the case for the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and even Daniel Hudson and Matt Garza, but the Big Three are presently sporting Cy Young statistics, residing on a plateau of their own Manly Awesomeness.
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