It’s been a long offseason, one that has felt all the more drawn out because a number of high-profile free agents, including three of the top five in our rankings, remain unsigned. But spring training has begun in earnest and the thwack of baseballs hitting gloves has started to punctuate the air in Arizona and Florida. These power rankings give us a snapshot of where each team stands, though a lot could change between now and Opening Day.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the most important components of a team — its offense (wRC+) and its pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I’ve removed defense from the calculations during the offseason since defensive projections aren’t the most reliable. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections, which now include both the 2024 ZiPS projections and the 2024 Steamer projections. The result is a power ranking, presented in tiers below.

The Braves spent a lot of effort this offseason solidifying their place atop the NL pecking order. With an already strong roster, they were surprisingly busy this winter, making nine different trades, the majority of which looked more like an accounting ledger than a major league transaction record. In the end, they bolstered their pitching staff by adding Chris Sale and a handful of bullpen arms and filled the lone hole in their lineup with the mercurial Jarred Kelenic. They’re projected to win five more games than the Dodgers and should have no trouble running the table in the NL East again this year.

The Dodgers did all they could this offseason to try and topple the Braves from the top of the projected standings, signing two Japanese superstars, trading for Tyler Glasnow, and re-signing their franchise talisman. Despite all the money they’ve spent on revitalizing their once-depleted starting rotation, there’s still plenty of risk dragging their projection down. Their talent is undeniable, but it’s unclear how much of it will be healthy and available for the entire season.

The Astros remain the class of the American League despite a pretty quiet offseason. They addressed their biggest pitching need last summer when they reacquired Justin Verlander, though it remains to be seen how long he can fight off Father Time. Houston’s one big addition this offseason was to bring in Josh Hader to strengthen an already elite bullpen and help shorten games even further. The Astros also signed Jose Altuve, the face of their franchise, to a five-year extension that should keep him in Houston through the end of his career. With the rest of the AL playoff picture looking very crowded right now, the Astros stand above the fray as preseason favorites.

This tier really exposes the stark differences between the top teams in the American League versus that same group in the National League, which is not represented here. Even though the Astros are listed in the tier above, all six of the teams in this second tier could wind up being the best team in the AL by the end of the season, and this tier doesn’t even include the reigning World Series champions. It would be hard to imagine any of the next best teams in the NL surpassing the Braves or Dodgers this year. Hopefully that means the AL playoff picture will be crowded and exciting.

The Yankees entered this offseason at a bit of crossroads. Their 2023 season was derailed by injuries to their biggest stars, and they still have far too much money tied up in guys in the decline phase of their careers. They really needed to make a splash to keep up with the rest of the teams in the AL East. And make a splash they did. The one-two punch of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto rivals that of any other team in baseball, and they also managed to add depth in the outfield, with Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham, and the rotation, with Marcus Stroman. They’ve emerged as the slight favorites in their very competitive division.

The Rays traded Glasnow from their rotation, they won’t have Wander Franco in their lineup, and they’re still projected to finish second in the AL East with 86 wins. Not many other teams in baseball could survive losing two of their top players, much less project to be nearly as competitive. The depth of their roster is unrivaled, giving them plenty of leeway when the inevitable roster attrition begins to take its toll during the season. Unfortunately, their potential ceiling is a little lower without those same top contributors, making their chances of winning the division a little tougher.

The Twins, who cruised to a division title last year, look like they have a clear path to repeat. They still managed to improve their pitching staff and alleviate their infield logjam, even as they cut payroll. Despite the rosy projections, it still feels like the success of their season will hinge on the health of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis. If that trio is producing regularly, their lineup should be formidable. If not… well, the depth behind those three is rather lackluster.

For a brief moment, it looked like the Blue Jays had pulled off the heist of the offseason — and it involved sushi restaurants, flight trackers, and Canadian billionaires. Hearts across the north were broken when Shohei Ohtani did not step off that private jet in Toronto, and clothes rended asunder when he announced he’d be signing with the Dodgers a few hours later. Anything else the Jays did this offseason had to compete with that disappointment, which is why adding a couple of defense-first players and a 39-year-old designated hitter didn’t exactly generate a ton of excitement.

It was a long and winding road, and some of the individual moves didn’t necessarily make much sense in a vacuum, but the Mariners managed to red paper clip their way into a roster that looks roughly as talented as their squads from the past three seasons. Thanks to a young and talented pitching staff, Seattle is projected to have the best run prevention unit in baseball. That strength alone gives them a shot at toppling the Astros for the top spot in their division. Capping off their revamped lineup with Jorge Polanco gives their offense another middle-of-the-order hitter to help support Julio Rodríguez. They could use one more bat to lengthen their lineup, but that doesn’t seem likely.

After breaking out of their long rebuilding cycle with the AL’s best record last year, the Orioles have had an eventful offseason, though it took a while for the dominos to drop. As the calendar flipped to February, they traded for Corbin Burnes to give them an ace to lead their starting rotation. The very next day, news broke that John Angelos had agreed to sell the team to an investment group led by David Rubenstein. Hopefully, the change brings increased investment to the team, though it’ll probably take a while for those effects to be seen. Meanwhile, the roster looks as good as it did last year and Baltimore still has plenty of young talent on the cusp of making an impact in the big leagues.

The Red Sox don’t have a bad roster — and they were right to bring in Lucas Giolito, Tyler O’Neill, and Vaughn Grissom as complimentary pieces — but they don’t have a great one, either. The problem is that Boston plays in a division with four of the six teams in Tier Two, so it’s not enough to have a roster that is just OK. The Red Sox seem to be trying to straddle that awkward line between building toward the future and maintaining a roster that could luck into a Wild Card spot if enough things break their way.

The Diamondbacks have quietly had a strong offseason to support the squad that surprisingly won the NL pennant last year. They brought in Eduardo Rodriguez to bolster the starting rotation, re-signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr., traded for Eugenio Suárez, and signed Joc Pederson. They’re not splashy moves, but they do fill in some of the cracks that were exposed in the World Series once their good fortune ran out. They won’t challenge the Dodgers for the NL West crown, but they should be right in the thick of the Wild Card race again this season.

You can quibble about who they brought in, but the Cardinals had one job this offseason and they went right after it, signing Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson to revamp their starting pitching. Those three should be better than the patchwork staff that derailed St. Louis last season. Combined with a strong offensive core and solid bullpen, an improved rotation should be enough for the Cardinals to make last year a one-year blip rather than the start of a long decline.

By re-signing Aaron Nola and calling it an offseason, the Phillies have indicated they’re satisfied with running back the same group that has been so successful over the past two seasons. That’s not a terrible place to be in — back-to-back NLCS appearances is nothing to sneeze at — but it’s also not very aspirational. Of course, it’s hard to have higher aspirations when you have to chase down the Braves in the NL East, so another Wild Card berth will have to do.

It’s weird to see the Rangers this low in the rankings, but they’ve had a relatively quiet offseason for a team that just won a World Series. That said, they can look forward to their lineup continuing to be one of the league’s best, with a full season of Evan Carter and the eventual debut of Wyatt Langford. The problem is their pitching staff. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle are all expected to return from their respective injuries during the second half of the season. That should give them a formidable playoff rotation should they reach the postseason again, but the onus is on their healthy starters to hold down the fort for the first three months of the season.

There are five NL teams with projections sitting around .500 in this tier, with two more in the tier below, and they’ll all be fighting over one or two Wild Card spots. That should make for a dramatic race, though any one of those teams could begin to separate themselves from the pack by signing any of the free agents still on the market.

The Marlins have been very quiet this offseason — they’re the only remaining team who hasn’t signed a free agent to a major league contract. The moves they have made have been around the margins, bringing in some additional depth and utility types. Once again, they’re going to rely on their young and dynamic pitching staff to carry the load. It worked for them last year, though they benefited from some historic Pythagorean overperformance.

ZiPS actually likes Cleveland’s chances of challenging Minnesota in the AL Central, projecting the two teams to finish with the same record. That’s interesting, considering the Guardians enter this season with mostly the same players as last year’s team that missed the playoffs. But they’ve got a talented pitching staff that could carry them, and they’ll be calling on a couple of their prospects — Brayan Rocchio and Kyle Manzardo — to improve their lineup. It might not be enough, but Cleveland has the potential here to make for an interesting division race if things break right.

Boy, does the Brewers roster look different without Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff leading their rotation. In a wide open division, Milwaukee has opted to try and build toward the future while still hoping for a competitive season in the present. In addition to top prospect Jackson Chourio, the Brewers have a bunch of other exciting youngsters who could make an impact in the big leagues this year. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them right in the thick of the playoff race.

The Cubs stayed competitive until the final week of last season, but they’ve failed to address the big hole on their roster that opened when Cody Bellinger hit free agency. They did sign Shōta Imanaga, which should give them a boost to their starting rotation, and they also picked up Michael Busch from the Dodgers in a savvy little trade. There’s still time to re-sign Bellinger, but until they do, they look like they’re a hair behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.

The Giants finally added some oomph to their lineup by signing Jorge Soler to a three-year deal earlier this week. Along with newcomer Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco has brought in two solid offensive players to bolster its lineup. The Giants have capable starters across every position, and they have some decent depth, but they still lack the upside to push their projection above .500. They could go out and sign Blake Snell, which would certainly help, but they’re clearly not good enough to challenge the Dodgers for the division. They’ll be stuck fighting with the other high-variance teams in the NL for those last Wild Card spots.

After the death of owner Peter Seidler and a television contract that was suddenly up-in-the-air, the Padres cut payroll after spending lavishly during recent offseasons. The Juan Soto trade helped solve that issue while also restocking their starting rotation. San Diego still has plenty of talent on the big league roster, and top prospect Jackson Merrill is knocking on the door, but the Padres desperately need another outfielder, even after re-signing Jurickson Profar.

The Tigers have spent this offseason filling in the edges of their roster, with righty starters Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty being the standout acquisitions. They also handed out a big extension to top prospect Colt Keith; he’ll join the collection of young hitters already in the big leagues. If enough things break its way, Detroit could surprise in the weak AL Central. However, it’s more likely that the Tigers are another year away from the end of their rebuild.

The Reds have the enviable problem of having too many young infielders for not enough spots, and manager David Bell will have to figure out how to get them all regular at-bats while also juggling their development when the inevitable growing pains come along. Even with all that position player talent and the additions of Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, the projections peg Cincinnati to be right around where it finished last year. That’s not terrible, considering the Reds were in the playoff conversation right up until the last weekend of the season, but they’ll need to get a lot from their youngsters to rise above their current projections.

The Mets fell the furthest of any team in these rankings over the offseason. You get the sense that this year is being treated as an evaluation year by their new president of baseball operations David Stearns as he begins to put his stamp on the organization. There’s still talent on this roster, though. If some of their veterans return to form and Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty produce, the Mets could challenge for a Wild Card spot.

If the Mets are stuck in the limbo of not rebuilding yet, the Angels are even further out in the cold. They realized they couldn’t replace the production of a unicorn like Shohei Ohtani, so they didn’t try to do that this offseason. Instead, they brought in a pile of relievers and are hoping for a return to health from all of their key contributors on offense. Even if Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Taylor Ward all play full seasons, that still won’t be enough to compete in the crowded AL Wild Card race, and there aren’t many reinforcements coming up through their farm system, either.

Even though they’ve started to graduate some of their prospects, the Pirates are still a step behind the other teams in their division. Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes look like franchise pillars, but Pittsburgh doesn’t have enough to contend just yet.

After signing Bobby Witt Jr. to a franchise-record extension, the Royals face the difficult task of building a winning roster around him. Signing veteran starters Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to support a beleaguered pitching staff was a good start, but the Royals needed to do more than make incremental moves, and so far, they haven’t. Considering there isn’t much coming through the minor league system, either, Kansas City would probably be better off trading away Wacha and Lugo for prospects during the season to hopefully speed up this rebuild.

The A’s lost 112 games last year, but it’s hard to care about the product they put on the field because of their impending move to Las Vegas. The best thing you can say about Oakland’s roster right now is that it is not projected to be the worst team in the majors. Unfortunately, there’s a serious lack of upside on the big league roster and little high-end talent down on the farm. It’s possible that when (or, at this point, if) the A’s head to Vegas four years from now, they will still be one of the worst teams in baseball.

You’d think the Rockies would’ve learned a valuable lesson after striking gold with their under-the-radar pickup of Nolan Jones last offseason. But instead of working to find more under-appreciated, talented players who are blocked from getting regular playing time elsewhere, they spent this offseason acting as uninspired as ever. Maybe they expect to see some growth from Ezequiel Tovar and healthy seasons from Kris Bryant and Brendan Rodgers, but there isn’t much else to get excited about on this roster.

It’s a sad state of affairs. The most that White Sox fans can look forward to this season is that their team trades its two best players, Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr. for the package of prospects that could form the next great South Siders roster. Until they trade those two, the Sox will likely avoid being the worst team in the majors, but the bottom could fall out very quickly after the deadline.

At the end of this season, the Nationals will be one year closer to seeing the fruits of the Juan Soto trade in the majors. That’s the best that can be said about their roster as it’s currently constructed. Sure, CJ Abrams looks mildly interesting as a breakout candidate, and it isn’t the worst plan to bank on Joey Gallo, Nick Senzel, and Jesse Winker returning to form. But make no mistake, this organization is in a holding pattern until its ownership question is answered.

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The true offseason has yet to begin, as teams have begun their annual housekeeping on their rosters, but the big moves have yet to materialize. That means it’s the perfect time to see how they stack up against each other. Think of these power rankings as a glimpse at which teams are close to being ready for 2023 and which teams might have a lot of work to do before even thinking about next season.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are entirely powered by the 2024 Steamer projections at this point. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

While these offseason power rankings will continue to emulate the format from the past few years, I am working on a new format to the rankings for the 2024 regular season that will hopefully address many of the concerns voiced about the current methodology. I hope to have more to share about what these new rankings will look like in the months ahead. Anyway, to the rankings!

It’s a good sign when the team with the best regular-season record in 2023 is projected to have the best record again the following season. The Braves’ young core is locked up for years, and they look ready to dominate the National League for years to come. They’ve already addressed some needs in their bullpen by re-signing Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez, and they’ll likely continue adding to their pitching staff to cover for the loss of Kyle Wright to shoulder surgery. They’ve also got a need for more depth in the outfield. Still, those are small concerns; this roster as it stands would be an easy World Series favorite if the season started today.

The projections will always favor a deep and flexible team like the Rays because their ability to weather the attrition of a long season is easily accounted for in the data. Our current Depth Charts projections have Wander Franco taking the majority of the playing time at shortstop, but the step down to Junior Caminero’s isn’t that drastic. Their pitching staff looks set, with a full season from Tyler Glasnow and the return of Shane Baz hopefully in the cards. They’ll miss the trio of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs, but bringing in Aaron Civale at the trade deadline this year and the emergence of Zack Littell should give them a formidable rotation.

The version of the Astros we saw in 2023 was a diminished one compared to their dominant championship from the year prior, most of which can be attributed to injury woes that plagued them throughout the season. The majority of the core that drove so much of their success in ‘22 will be back next year, but they’ll need to add a bit of depth to their starting rotation. Justin Verlander will be 41 years old in 2024, and there’s no telling what they can expect from Lance McCullers Jr. Read the rest of this entry »

The race to the playoffs provided plenty of drama over the past month. The battle for a Wild Card spot ended up coming down to the wire in both leagues, and the AL West wasn’t completely wrapped up until the final day of the season. But we’ve finally made it to the main event, where anything can happen and underdogs can topple giants. Here’s a look at the 12 teams in the playoffs and how they stack up against each other.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. Since regular season records don’t matter in the playoffs, I’ve removed the factors for win percentage and expected win percentage from the calculations. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve made it to the final week of the season, and both Wild Card races are still up in the air. Unfortunately, MLB’s expanded postseason field has led to the elimination of tiebreaker games in favor of tiebreaker mathematics. So while we’re barreling towards a dramatic finish in both those playoff races, the regular season will be over for good on Sunday. The next edition of these power rankings will evaluate the playoff field next week.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

All the Braves needed to do over these last few weeks of the season was get to the postseason healthy and ready to make a deep run in October, but that plan has begun to unravel a bit. Last week, they placed both Max Fried and Charlie Morton on the IL, though the former should be ready for the NLDS since his injury is just a minor blister issue. Still, losing one of their best starters in Morton isn’t ideal as they head into the playoffs. In more encouraging news, Ronald Acuña Jr. became the fifth player to join the 40–40 club on Friday and is now the only member of the 40–50 and 40–60 clubs; he could even hit the 40–70 mark this week.

The Dodgers put the first nail in the Giants’ coffin, winning three of four against them last weekend. They’ve got a first-round bye locked up but probably won’t be able to chase down the Braves for the best record in baseball during this final week of the season. They’ll spend that time figuring out their playoff rotation and making sure everyone gets to the postseason healthy. To that end, it was encouraging to see Clayton Kershaw spin five shutout innings on Saturday, his second shutout performance in a row, coming off his shoulder injury.

After an up-and-down start to the month, the Rangers have now won five straight, including three against the Mariners last weekend. Injuries have thinned out their pitching staff, but they’ve finally gotten healthy on offense, activating both Adolis García and Josh Jung off the IL last week. Even with the lineup fully stocked, their bullpen may still be their downfall; Texas’ relievers have allowed 65 runs to score in September, tied for second most this month behind the Braves.

With the Rangers taking control of the AL West and the Blue Jays gaining ground in the AL Wild Card race, it seems like the battle over the final Wild Card spot will come down to the Mariners and Astros, both of whom were swept in three games last weekend. Neither team has been playing all that well this month, with nearly identical records (8–13 for Houston and 8–14 for Seattle), and now they’ll face each other three times in Seattle to start this week.

The Orioles suffered through three bullpen meltdowns last week, though they managed a series win in Houston and a split of a four-game series in Cleveland. They’re still in command of the AL East and should enter the playoffs as the top seed. Still, their bullpen hasn’t been as strong since losing Félix Bautista, their All-Star closer; since he went on the IL, Baltimore’s relievers have allowed 50 runs, 16th in the majors. More worrying is their collective strikeout rate, which has fallen to just 17.2% during that stretch. If the O’s want to make a deep run into October, they need their relief corps firing on all cylinders.

The Phillies survived their final gauntlet before the end of the season last week, winning two of three against the Braves and then sweeping the Mets in four games. That all but assures their entry into the postseason as the top Wild Card in the NL. Nick Castellanos blasted five home runs last week, and Bryce Harper chipped in three of his own. They’ve been overshadowed by some of the other powerhouses in the NL and spent a lot of the first half of the season floundering with Harper and Trea Turner scuffling, but they’ve come on strong during the second half of the season.

With a particularly tough schedule during the final week of the season, the Cubs desperately needed some wins against the Rockies last weekend to remain in the NL Wild Card race. They wound up sweeping them in three games and now head into their final six games against the Braves and Brewers tied with the Diamondbacks and a game ahead of the Marlins. Meanwhile, Miami has much easier opponents left on the schedule, though the Marlins will play all six remaining games on the road in New York and Pittsburgh.

That final NL Wild Card spot will almost certainly come down to the Cubs or the Marlins, but the Reds, Giants, and Padres have yet to be eliminated. Chicago’s good fortune last weekend put a damper on the potential miracle run the Padres appeared to be making over the last few weeks. San Diego and San Francisco enter this week tied in the standings, and a lot of things need to go their way if either team is going to sneak into the playoffs. It’s likely too little, too late for the Padres, but they’ve finally been playing up to the level of talent on their roster over the last few weeks. Unfortunately, their record in extra innings games dropped to 0–12 on Saturday, which snapped their eight-game win streak.

The Yankees have some real soul searching to do this offseason, but at least they might have figured out a piece of their starting rotation. Michael King has been utterly dominant since moving out of the bullpen, allowing no more than two runs in any of his seven starts this year. With injuries curtailing the production of many of their other starters this year, King’s emergence has been a huge positive sign to end a disappointing season.

That the Reds even have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs this late in the season has to be seen as a huge success after tearing everything down last year. And while Elly De La Cruz has really struggled with prolonged exposure to big league pitching, Cincinnati has plenty of other youngsters who are making an impact and who should form the core of a potent roster for years to come. The Reds have games against the Guardians and Cardinals this week and need a lot of help elsewhere in the standings to make things interesting for the Cubs and Marlins.

The Royals are ending the season on an incredibly high note; they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games, including five of six from the Astros, and thanks to late-season breakouts from Cole Ragans and Nelson Velázquez, they can head into next year with some hope for the future. Bobby Witt Jr. proved he was the core piece they could build around this year; all of a sudden, there’s some forward momentum for an organization that’s been stuck in reverse for too long.

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The Wild Card races in both leagues continue to be filled with drama as none of the teams vying for those playoff spots have created any daylight in the standings.

A quick aside before we get into the rankings themselves: there has been some discussion about the efficacy and value of these rankings, particularly the team quality metric I’m calculating. I won’t argue that it’s a perfect encapsulation of any given team’s relative strength or the right way to rank teams on a weekly basis, but I did want to share some historical data from last season. In 2022, team quality had a 97% correlation to a team’s final win percentage. In addition, team quality at the All-Star break had a 95% correlation to a team’s final record. The relationship hasn’t been as strong this season with team quality at the All-Star break having a 82% correlation to a team’s current record. It’s possible teams like the Orioles and Padres who are historically over- or under-performing their underlying stats are skewing the relationship and that’s a possible area of research this offseason. Anyway, I’m comfortable with the established relationship between team quality and actual wins to continue using it as a way to compare team strengths.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

With the NL East and a first-round bye into the playoffs locked up, the Braves are simply hoping to get to October with a healthy roster that hasn’t lost its edge. That’s why it’s important to not get too worked up about any extreme swings in results over these last few weeks of the season. Case in point: Atlanta took three of four from the Phillies in a potential NLDS preview early last week before allowing 36 runs across three games in a sweep by the Marlins over the weekend.

The Rays had an opportunity to take over the AL East lead after taking the first two games of their big weekend series against the Orioles. The two best teams in the AL ended up splitting that four game-series and head into this week locked into the same position, with Tampa Bay sitting two games behind Baltimore. One of the biggest reasons why the Rays have been able to keep pace in the division is a much improved bullpen locking down games behind a suddenly stable starting rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re getting to the point in the season where the majority of the teams in these rankings aren’t going to budge. There was a bit of movement at the top of the rankings where three teams are battling for two spots in the AL Wild Card race.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Braves became the first team to secure their postseason berth this season with a series win over the Pirates on Sunday. The man who delivered the game-winning hit? National League MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr. Atlanta now has a huge opportunity to affect the NL Wild Card race over the remainder of the season; the Braves play the Phillies seven times over the next ten days and have series against the Marlins and Cubs on the docket, too.

All of a sudden, the Dodgers are facing some real questions on their pitching staff. Julio Urías was placed on Administrative Leave last week after he was arrested and charged with felony domestic violence charges; he’s unlikely to pitch again this season. The team also announced that Walker Buehler won’t return from his Tommy John rehab this year, pushing his return to 2024. Clayton Kershaw seems to be feeling the ill effects of his shoulder injury; his last two starts featured a significant dip in fastball velocity, and his next start was pushed back to Friday in the hopes that he can bounce back physically. At least the Dodgers dodged a bullet after Mookie Betts fouled a pitch off his toe on Thursday; there was no major damage, and he was back in the lineup on Sunday.

With both the Mariners and Rangers faltering to begin September, the Blue Jays have taken advantage of their soft schedule to win seven of their nine games this month and vault themselves over those two teams in the AL Wild Card race. Davis Schneider has continued his surprising assault on big league pitching, and Bo Bichette came off the IL last weekend. They’ve got a huge four-game series against the Rangers this week, which should prove to be a test of how competitive they really are.

There’s nothing like a series win against the A’s to wipe away the memory of allowing 39 runs to the Astros. The Rangers were completely outclassed against Houston, another huge wakeup call amidst a protracted slide down the standings. To make matters worse, Adolis García hit the IL with a strained patellar tendon, though he’s expected to be back on the field before the season ends if everything goes well.

I understand: It’s weird that the Orioles, the team with the best record in the AL, sit behind four other teams in their league and in the third tier in these rankings. But no matter how you slice it — base runs, pythagorean record, or this team quality metric — they’re continuing to outperform their underlying stats by significant margins. Yes, they just rattled off a seven-game win streak that was finally broken on Sunday; yes, they’re getting contributions from all over their roster right now; and yes, they’ve barely skipped a beat since losing Félix Bautista a few weeks ago. But on paper, they’re not as strong as some of the other teams in the AL playoff picture, even if they’ll probably end up with the top seed and a first-round bye when the playoffs officially start.

Surprise, Trea Turner hit another home run on Sunday, his ninth over his last ten games. Unfortunately, the Phillies lost that game and the series to the Marlins. They’re still 4.5 games ahead of Miami and in control of the top Wild Card spot in the NL, but their schedule gets tough over the next two weeks; they won’t have an off day until the final week of the season, and they play the Braves seven times over the next ten days.

The Twins stood pat at the trade deadline, banking on the already assembled talent on their roster rather than trying to find marginal upgrades at the cost of future value. Their gamble has largely paid off, as they lead the AL Central by 7.5 games and have easily weathered a last-minute rally by the Guardians. The man leading the charge on offense has been oft-injured former top prospect Royce Lewis. He blasted three grand slams in an eight-game span and has been on fire since returning from an oblique strain in mid-August with a 170 wRC+.

In the midst of battling for an NL Wild Card berth, the Diamondbacks called up their top prospect, shortstop Jordan Lawlar, on Thursday. They’re hoping that infusion of youth can give them the boost they need to secure a playoff spot. While he collected just a single hit over his first three games, Arizona won a critical four-game series against the Cubs over the weekend. Those two teams will battle again this weekend in another three-game series.

In a disappointing turn of events, Yankees top prospect Jasson Domínguez tore his UCL and will require Tommy John surgery. The recovery period for position players is significantly shorter than for pitchers, as Bryce Harper proved this year, but it still cuts short a promising start to his big league career.

The Marlins have won eight of their last 10 games, including series wins against the Dogders and Phillies, to stay hot on the heels of the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race. Unfortunately, they’ll be making their postseason push without Sandy Alcantara and Jorge Soler, who were both placed on the IL last week. There’s no clear timeline for either, but it’s certainly possible they’ve both played their final innings this season. Those are some pretty significant hurdles Miami will have to overcome to continue playing baseball in October.

Things haven’t gone very well on the field for the Nationals, though probably better than expected since there’s a shot they’ll wind up ahead of the Mets in the NL East standings by the end of the season. It makes things all the more frustrating when off-field events reflect poorly on the organization on top of all the losing. That’s what happened last week, when a retirement ceremony for Stephen Strasburg was walked back by the team with the details apparently still being worked out. It was a bad look for the organization and a poor way to treat the superstar pitcher who almost literally gave his arm to win a World Series back in 2019.

After a sweep by the Blue Jays over the weekend, the Royals entered play on Monday with the worst record in baseball. Somehow, they’ve slipped behind Oakland with just eight wins under their belt since August 5. Thankfully, there are a few positive signs as the season winds down. Cole Ragans had a 26-inning scoreless streak snapped on Sunday, and in a particularly odd manner, too. He’s been dominant for Kansas City since coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade and looks like a key building block.

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We’ve finally made it to the last month of the regular season, and there are still a handful of exciting, drama-filled postseason races to hold our attention until the playoffs begin in earnest.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday’s games.

In a potential NLCS preview, the Braves and the Dodgers played four drama-filled games last weekend, with Atlanta prevailing in three of them. That series win all but guarantees the Braves will head into the postseason with the top seed in the National League and likely the best record in baseball should they advance all the way to the World Series. That might be putting the cart before the horse, but that’s the trajectory they’ve been on all season long, and anything less would likely be seen as a disappointment.

Instead of withering under the considerable amount of attrition they’ve suffered this year, the Rays have continued to put pressure on the Orioles in the race for the AL East crown. They’ve gone 17–9 since losing Shane McClanahan to Tommy John surgery in early August and 12–6 since Wander Franco was placed on administrative leave. They did suffer a bit of a stumble against the Guardians last weekend, though, losing their first series since August 8–10, then came up short against the Red Sox on Labor Day.

The Rangers began a huge series against the Astros on Monday with an ugly 13–6 loss. They did pick up a series win against the Mets early last week but just barely avoided a sweep at the hands of the Twins on Sunday with a walk-off win. Their only saving grace during this poor stretch of play has been the concurrent struggles of the Mariners and Astros. Seattle lost its series against the Mets last weekend, which was barely better than the sweep Houston suffered against the Yankees. These three teams are still separated by a single game atop the AL West.

The Phillies have solidified their place at the top of the NL Wild Card race with an excellent August where they went 17–10. The driver of the train? Bryce Harper, who has finally regained his power stroke after offseason elbow surgery and blasted eight home runs in a two-week span to close out last month. Not to be outdone, Trea Turner is in the midst of a 15-game hit streak, compiling 24 hits and 10 home runs during his torrid stretch. Since receiving a standing ovation on August 4, he has hit .364/.398/.764 (206 wRC+).

The Cubs had a big week with back-to-back series against the Brewers and Reds, the two teams directly ahead of and behind them in the NL Central standings. They wound up going 4–3 with a series win against Milwaukee and a series split against Cincinnati that included two heartbreaking walk-off losses. Justin Steele continues to bolster his stealthy Cy Young candidacy, and Kyle Hendricks has regained his pre-pandemic funk, while Cody Bellinger continues to power the offense.

Entering Monday, the Diamondbacks, Reds, Marlins, and Giants were all tied for the final position in the NL Wild Card race. Miami was idle, and Arizona and Cincinnati won their games yesterday. Unfortunately, San Francisco dropped its fourth straight to fall behind the pace by a game. The Giants are still reeling from all the injuries that have tested their depth, though they did activate Mitch Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, and Brandon Crawford off the IL. Even with all those reinforcements, their offense is ice cold; they’ve scored just four total runs during this losing streak and have been shut out in back-to-back games.

With the AL East well out of reach and the Wild Card a distant pipe dream, the Yankees called up a couple of their prospects last weekend to get them some valuable experience in the big leagues this month. Jasson Domínguez, their top ranked prospect, homered in his first major league at-bat against Justin Verlander and added a second dinger on Sunday as the Yankees swept the Astros. The wins are too little, too late, but the standout performances from the youngsters give New York a ray of hope during a lost season.

The Reds and Guardians were the big winners in the wacky waiver wire sweepstakes last week. It was a little surprising to see the Guardians claim three pitchers; they’re so far behind the Twins in the AL Central that their playoff odds are in the single digits. To their credit, they made the claims after winning a three-game set against Minnesota, then went out and won their weekend series against the Rays for good measure. Of course, in Lucas Giolito’s debut with Cleveland on Monday, he allowed nine runs — to the Twins no less! — in an ugly 20–6 defeat to start another critical series against the division leader.

Just a month after trading for a handful of guys in the hopes that they could salvage another disappointing season and make the postseason with both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout on their roster, the Angels wound up waiving five of those six trade deadline acquisitions in an attempt to get under the luxury tax threshold to improve their draft position when Ohtani inevitably leaves in free agency this offseason. It was a bizarre move with a cynical end goal, made all the more hilarious because apparently they wound up just a hair over the threshold anyway. At least Nolan Schanuel looks pretty interesting, as far as a first base prospect can be.

If you’re looking for a team to channel its inner Wario and create the most chaos for teams in the playoff hunt, look no further than the Mets. Twenty-three of their remaining 25 games are against teams looking to secure a playoff spot, with their two-game series against the Nationals this week the only exception. They played their role as spoiler well last weekend, winning two of three against the Mariners.

On the flip side, the Tigers have just nine games with playoff implications remaining on their schedule, and three of those are against the Guardians during the last week of the season. Detroit’s youngsters will still get valuable development time as they play out the string, but most of the team’s games will matter more for draft position than the playoff aspirations of their opponents.

The Rockies also have a chance to play spoiler down the stretch, with 22 of their remaining 25 games against teams with playoff hopes. They lost series to the Braves and Blue Jays last week and started a series with the Diamondbacks with another loss on Monday. Where the Mets actually have the talent to actually play spoiler, the Rockies seem to be a minor nuisance for those playoff-bound teams.

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After a week hiatus, the FanGraphs Power Rankings are back and there’s been a pretty big shakeup in the top tiers. And as we head into the final month of the season, there are plenty of exciting playoff races still up in the air.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: First, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After the recent collapse of the Rangers, the Braves now stand alone atop these rankings. They’re on cruise control right now, with the NL East locked up and a first round bye into the divisional round all but guaranteed. They’ve won 13 of their last 16 games, with six shutouts and just 2.9 runs allowed per game during this stretch. They’ve got a huge four-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers this weekend that could go a long way towards determining the top seed in the NL.

No team in baseball is hotter right now than the Mariners. As recently as mid-July, they were 10 games behind Texas, but they’ve lost just five games in August and have surpassed both the Rangers and the Astros to take the division lead in the AL West. It’s the first time the M’s have led their division this late in the season since 2003. The offense that had been so frustratingly inconsistent earlier in the season has exploded this month; they’re scoring more than six runs per game and lead all of baseball with a 147 wRC+ in August.

A 4-2 record last week marked the low point of the Dodgers’ August; those two losses were just the third and fourth of the month for Los Angeles. They’re being led by two guys who are suddenly challenging Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL MVP race: Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. The former is in the midst of the best full season of his career at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths. Betts, meanwhile, enjoyed an emotional return to Boston this weekend and extended his hitting streak to 15 games.

After starting the month with an eight-game win streak and 12 wins in their first 14 games in August, the Rangers have been in free fall since then. A win on Saturday snapped an eight-game losing streak, but they lost an ugly, 13-inning walk-off affair in Minnesota on Sunday. That dropped them to second place in the AL West, the first time they’ve been out of the top spot since April 8. Their bullpen in particular has been a sore spot during this stretch; Texas relievers have allowed 35 runs over their last 10 games, with six blown saves.

The Orioles were dealt a serious blow when their ace closer Félix Bautista was sidelined with elbow discomfort last week. Losing a pitcher of Bautista’s caliber would be a problem for any club, but for Baltimore, it’s a tremendous loss. So much of the O’s success this season has hinged on the success of their bullpen. Their shot at the playoffs probably isn’t threatened, but their grip on the AL East division lead is suddenly a little more tenuous.

With the Mariners budging in, the fight for the AL West crown is suddenly very crowded. The Astros have played second fiddle to the Rangers all season long, but now they have a third team to contend with. The ‘Stros offense has been frustratingly inconsistent this month; they’ve had just as many games where they score nine or more runs as they’ve had games where they score two or fewer. Kyle Tucker has been a rock in the middle of their lineup, and Jose Altuve has been fantastic since returning from his thumb injury, but Yordan Alvarez has been kept in check by various maladies, and both José Abreu and Jeremy Peña have been great disappointments this year.

The Brewers won their eighth straight game on Sunday and have now extended their lead in the NL Central to four games. They have a huge series against the Cubs on the docket this week, which could go a long way towards determining how close this division race is going to be down the stretch. Milwaukee’s offense has come alive lately, scoring more than seven runs per game after notching just three total runs during the three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers that immediately preceded this win streak. That’s a very good sign, as run scoring has been such an issue for them during this recent competitive window.

Thanks to a floundering offense and an extremely thin pitching staff, the Giants have fallen out of Wild Card position, sitting even with Cincinnati at a game and a half back of the Diamondbacks. The depth of their roster has been strained to the breaking point by a cavalcade of injuries. They have key series against the Reds and Cubs coming up over the next two weeks, and they desperately need some positive results in those matchups to stay in the playoff picture.

Meanwhile, the roller coaster the Diamondbacks are riding is currently back on the upswing. They started the month with a nine-game losing streak, but they’ve gone 12-3 over their last 15 games to get right back into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. They just won a huge four-game series against the Reds over the weekend, one that featured one of the most dynamic single plays you’ll ever see.

The teams in this tier are tangibly better than those in the tier below, but they’ve either fallen out of the playoff picture or are such long shots that they fit better as a potential spoiler than a true contender. The Padres exemplify this contrast; they’re underlying team quality is solid but they’re just too far back in the NL Wild Card race to truly make a run at it. Of course, being a good team that isn’t really good enough has plenty of rough implications for their future. The talent on their roster looked dominant on paper, but the actual results on the field have been disappointing to say the least. After getting swept by the Brewers over the weekend, you can probably put a pin in San Diego’s slim postseason hopes.

Speaking of teams at a crossroads, a 2-12 record over the last few weeks has sunk whatever last hopes the Yankees had of making a postseason run this year. If things keep going this way, they’ll finish in last place in the AL East for the first time since 1990; it would be their first losing season since 1992. To make matters worse, their future outlook seems pretty bleak unless they’re able to miraculously fill their aging roster with young talent. For the first time in nearly three decades, the Yanks are facing the decision to rebuild, or at least reset, their roster.

As if things weren’t bad enough for the Angels, Shohei Ohtani injured his UCL last week and is done pitching for the season (and perhaps next season, too, depending on the severity of the tear). That same day, they placed Mike Trout back on the IL after he played in just a single game thanks to renewed discomfort in his left hand. Los Angeles was already well out of the playoff picture thanks to a ghastly 7-17 record in August, but depriving baseball of two of its greatest talents is a tragedy.

In the midst of another lost season, the Tigers finally have something to give them a shred of hope: the breakouts of Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter. After a really rough introduction to the big leagues, the former first overall pick is finally close to living up to the hype surrounding his draft selection and ascent through the minor leagues. Meanwhile, Carpenter’s emergence has largely flown under the radar, but he’s been Detroit’s best hitter since getting called up last August. The Tigers have plenty of work left to do before breaking out of this rebuild cycle, but those two hitters give them another pair of building blocks to work with.

Things finally came to a head for White Sox executive vice president Kenny Williams and general manager Rick Hahn last week. The architects of the team for nearly two decades, both were fired from their roles, as Chicago has squandered a bunch of young talent over the past few years. The White Sox will head into next year in search of a new direction, though with Jerry Reinsdorf still in place as the team’s owner, it remains to be seen how different of a course they can chart.

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What a difference a week makes. With plenty of teams streaking up and down the standings, the playoff picture in both leagues is as murky as ever. We’re also at the point in the season where we can start thinking about which teams are positioned to play spoiler down the stretch.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rangers continued their red-hot August with series wins against the A’s and Giants last week. They’re just three games behind the Orioles for the best record in the American League and have held off the surging Astros and Mariners to maintain their grip on the AL West.

The Braves emerged from their most congested portion of their schedule with five wins in eight games last week. They outscored the Mets 34–3 over the first three games of their four-game weekend series before losing on Sunday night, 7–6. Matt Olson took over the MLB home run lead by blasting four last week; he’s now up to 43 on the season, already a career high.

All of a sudden, the Rays are facing all sorts of woes. On Saturday, they placed Shane McClanahan on the 60-day IL with a forearm injury that will cost him the rest of the season. For a team that’s already lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to season-ending injuries (not to mention the back issue that forced Tyler Glasnow to miss his start last week), it’s another unfortunate hit to the pitching depth. Then, on Sunday, reports emerged that Wander Franco was being investigated regarding some concerning social media posts.

The Blue Jays have struggled with consistency all season long; to wit, they split a series with the Guardians and lost a series to the Cubs last week, allowing the surging Mariners to come within a game and a half of the final Wild Card spot in the AL. With Hyun Jin Ryu back from his Tommy John surgery and Yusei Kikuchi in the middle of the best run of his career, Toronto optioned Alek Manoah back to Triple-A to continue working out his issues. Bo Bichette still looks like he’s a couple of weeks away from returning from his knee injury, though Jordan Romano and Kevin Kiermaier look like they’ll be back from the IL this week.

The Dodgers have lost just once in August and pushed their current win streak to eight games with a sweep of the Rockies last weekend. They didn’t have the splashiest of trade deadlines, but Lance Lynn has surprisingly provided some stability to a starting rotation that is only just now getting healthy again, and Clayton Kershaw was activated from the IL last week and contributed a solid start on Thursday. Los Angeles now has a commanding 8.5-game lead in the NL West, a shocking gap considering it wasn’t even in first place at the All-Star break.

Wednesday was a night of celebration for the Phillies: Weston Wilson crushed a home run in his first major league plate appearance; Nick Castellanos blasted two home runs, the second of which was his 200th career dinger; and as the headlining act, Michael Lorenzen fired a no-hitter in his first start in Philadelphia since coming over at the trade deadline. They couldn’t keep the good vibes going over the weekend, scoring just once over their final two games against the Twins. Still, the struggles of every other NL Wild Card hopeful have given the Phillies a three-game lead in that race.

The Giants barely avoided a sweep at the hands of the Rangers with a dramatic, walk-off win in the tenth inning on Sunday. That victory salvaged a 2–4 week and helped them stay 1.5 games ahead of the Marlins in the NL Wild Card race. That series against Texas began an extremely tough stretch of schedule against playoff contenders that includes the Rays, Braves (twice), Phillies, Reds, Padres, and Cubs before finally easing up in September.

The Padres are quickly running out of opportunities to turn their season around at the last minute. After a particularly lackluster performance in a losing effort in Seattle on Wednesday, there were some pointed comments from Juan Soto after the game. They bounced back in their first game against the Diamondbacks in a huge weekend series but lost on Saturday and Sunday and are now 5.5 games back for the final wild card spot. They’ll have another shot at Arizona this weekend, which now seems like a make-or-break series.

After an ugly 2–8 stretch to start the month, the Red Sox have gotten back on track with series wins against the Royals and Tigers last week. Trevor Story, Chris Sale, and Garrett Whitlock are back off the IL, and Triston Casas is powering the offense nearly singlehandedly. That’s a lot of last-minute reinforcements for Boston, which has a lot of work to do to get back into the AL Wild Card race.

The Angels showed some signs of life in a series win against the Giants early last week, but they were short-lived; the Astros handed them back-to-back 11–3 defeats over the weekend, and Los Angeles barely avoided a sweep with a close 2–1 victory on Sunday. The Angels’ postseason hopes are hanging by a thread, and they’re almost at the point where they need to start looking toward an Ohtani-less season next year. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to affect the playoff picture by playing spoiler down the stretch, but they need to find ways to get some of their youngsters more playing time to assess what they’re working with moving forward.

The four-way race for the final NL Wild Card spot ended this week with the Marlins a half-game ahead of the Reds and Cubs. They got there thanks to a series win against Cincinnati earlier in the week and then a dramatic series win against the Yankees capped off by a walk-off victory on Sunday. All four teams won their series over the weekend, though Arizona is at a significant disadvantage thanks to its slide down the standings earlier in the month.

The race for the final two protected draft lottery picks is probably going to come down to these five teams. They’re separated by just a single game in the standings, and each of them looks stronger than the bottom four teams in the standings (though the Nationals are actually ineligible to receive a lottery pick since they earned one last year). These five teams are also the most likely to play spoiler down the stretch, since all of them can put together a competitive performance on any given night.

If there’s one thing Rockies fans could enjoy about their team during these lean years, it was a winning record at home. Over the last decade, Colorado has posted a losing record in Coors Field twice, and one of those years was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. They’re at risk of losing that home field advantage this year, having gone 25–30 so far. They still have home series against the Diamondbacks, Braves, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, and Twins on the docket, which means they could play a significant role as a spoiler down the stretch — but only if they can turn Coors Field back into a tough place to play in.

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As we head into the dog days of August, the playoff picture in the National League continues to be pretty murky. Meanwhile, in the American League, the best teams continue to separate themselves from the chaff.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After going all-in on this season last weekend with their acquisitions of Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, the Rangers swept through last week with six straight wins. That’s given them a little bit of breathing room in the AL West. Unfortunately, their All-Star third baseman Josh Jung fractured his thumb on Sunday, potentially ending his season early. He’ll join Jonah Heim on the IL; suddenly, the best offense in the AL has suddenly sprung a few leaks. Read the rest of this entry »