Archive for Prospects

Minor-League Trading Arsenals – Pre-Deadline Update

Last week, we took a look at each AL and NL club’s arsenal of minor-league prospects, with which they could pursue coveted established big leaguers at the deadline. A number of transactions have been made since then, so an update would be useful in advance of the anticipated storm of moves likely to take place before the sands run out of the hourglass on Friday. Which teams are best positioned to acquire the remaining plums on the market?

As we did last week, we’ll rank the 30 minor-league systems based upon my midseason position-player and starting-pitcher rankings. If you aren’t familiar with my minor-league lists, here is a brief refresher. They aren’t pure top-prospect lists; they basically serve as follow lists, after which traditional scouting methods are used to tweak the order. Qualification for my lists are based upon a combination of performance and age relative to league/level. The younger a prospect is at each level, the less production is required to get him onto the list. At level-specific “optimal ages” (22 at AAA, 21 at AA, 20 at High-A, 19 at Low-A), a player qualifies regardless of performance. At level-specific, much older ages (26 at AAA, 25 at AA, 24 at High-A, 23 at Low-A), you can’t qualify for the list no matter how loud your performance. Only full-season league prospects are considered.

Read the rest of this entry »


Projecting the Prospects in the Troy Tulowitzki Trade

While many of you were snuggled up in your beds last night, Alex Anthopoulos and his henchmen were hard at work acquiring Troy Tulowitzki from the Rockies. You can read Dave Cameron’s piping hot take on the trade here and Kiley McDaniel’s scouting-oriented contribution on the three pitching prospects going from Toronto to Colorado here. Below, I’ll be taking a data-driven look at those same three prospects, as follow: Miguel Castro, Jeff Hoffman, and Jesus Tinoco.

Read the rest of this entry »


Scouting the Prospects in the Tulowitzki Trade

Lead Prospect Analyst Kiley McDaniel is currently scouting the East Coast Pro prep showcase in Tampa, Florida. What follows is a collection of scouting reports written by McDaniel concerning the three players traded by Toronto to Colorado in exchange for Troy Tulowitzki — compiled and updated to account both for recent developments and/or likely role with the Rockies.

Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies, FV: 55

In Hoffman’s offseason scouting report, I noted that he was in contention to go #1 overall until his elbow surgery just before the 2014 draft, in which he went ninth overall. He made his first pro appearance this year and started making buzz right away, showing big velocity in a late big-league spring-training appearance, then in extended spring training and in his regular season debut at High-A Dunedin (he was just promoted to Double-A in the last few days). In the video, the first game shown is when I saw Hoffman about a month ago and the second game is when our own Chris King saw his first start for Dunedin about a month before that.

I like to keep all the clips we have of a player in the official video on the FanGraphs YouTube page (now over 1 million views and 1,000 videos in less than a year) for reasons just like this, so we can see the changes over time. Notice from the third game in the video (the summer before he was drafted, in the Cape Cod League) how aggressive Hoffman’s delivery is (and the knockout curve at 3:00) and note that much of that is still there in the second game, his pro debut in Dunedin. Now look at the first game, the most recent one, and notice how much more upright, stiff and generally tall-and-fall his delivery is, rather than attacking the plate.

Read the rest of this entry »


Scouting the Prospects in the Cueto Trade

If you’re reading this, you already know that the Reds dealt ace Johnny Cueto to the Royals yesterday for three lefties: Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed and John Lamb. For an idea of where these Future Value (FV) grades would fall, check out the top-200 prospect list and the Royals prospect list from just before the season. For the big-league perspective on the deal, see Jeff Sullivan’s take, and for a more statistical look at these three prospects, Chris Mitchell has also published a piece at the site.


Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Cincinnati Reds, FV: 55

Read the rest of this entry »


Correa, Bogaerts and the Development of Power

The adage that power is the last tool to develop floats around every year when trying to explain why a certain prospect has or has not realized his raw power in game situations. When I first heard the idea, it made sense. A hitter’s power develops as he gets stronger getting into his early-to-mid-20s, and… that was enough for me. The problem with this concept is that many of these hitters whose power we expect to develop sometime in the future already have the ability, just not the means to use it regularly. It’s not, in other words, merely a matter of getting it done in the weight room. And oftentimes, the smooth-stroking high-average doubles hitter never gets any attention for his power, then becomes a home-run monster as he matures. As an evaluator you need to understand how that happens and when it applies to individual hitters.

For this noninclusive inquiry, I wanted to look at two hitters lumped into the first group, those believed to have the raw power to be legitimate home-run hitters and how that power has or hasn’t manifested itself in the professional game. In looking at how hitters are able or unable to tap into their raw power skills, we can have a better idea of how to evaluate whether other players will be able to develop those skills into tangible results. Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa provide two excellent examples of this paradigm. Bogaerts has shown he can hit for moderate power in the minors against age-advanced competition, but has not yet brought it to Boston in his young career. Correa has started to showcase his power in the early going this year, though prior to this season it was more projection than demonstration. He was touted as a five-tool prospect going into the draft, and our own Kiley McDaniel graded him out in October as having a present 60 raw power tool (65 potential) with a 55 potential game power ability, or approximately 19-22 homers per season.

Read the rest of this entry »


Nationals Righty Lucas Giolito Impresses, As Expected

Anyone who follows prospects knows that Washington Nationals pitching prospect Lucas Giolito comes with considerable hype. After being in consideration for the first overall pick in the 2012 draft before succumbing to elbow problems, Giolito has repeatedly shown the sort of form that put him in that conversation (one that, given the performance of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton to date, is frankly quite lofty).

I have seen Giolito twice over the past two years, and I’ve happened to take in two of his more notable outings. Last August, I witnessed him toss five scoreless innings working exclusively with his fastball and changeup, and last week, I watched him throw seven no-hit frames after entering in the second inning. As one might expect, the heralded hurler showed plenty of substance behind his acclaim in both outings.

Read the rest of this entry »


Hoffman and Reyes Among Minors’ Most Intriguing Arms

I’ve teased in the last few chats that some big updates on the various prospects lists will be out in a few weeks, but I wanted to address some of the most-asked-about prospects I’ve recently scouted in one piece as an appetizer for the big update.

Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

In Hoffman’s offseason scouting report I noted that he was in contention to go #1 overall until his elbow surgery, just before the 2014 draft where he went ninth overall. He made his first pro appearance this year and started making buzz right away, showing big velocity in a late big-league spring-training appearance, then in extended spring training and in his regular season debut at High-A Dunedin (he was just promoted to Double-A in the last few days). In the video, the first game shown is when I saw Hoffman about a month ago and the second game is when our own Chris King saw his first start for Dunedin about a month before that.

Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 7/14/15

12:05
Kiley McDaniel: I’m back home after a day full of BBQ and travel delays yesterday. Have an article I’m wrapping up on interesting pro prospects I’ve seen recently and the oft-teased big prospect update (TM) is also in the works

12:05
Comment From the real brian
Would prospect Earl Sweatshirt receive an odd Future Value?

12:05
Kiley McDaniel: I see what you did there

12:05
Comment From Phil
After starting the year terribly, Dominic Smith looks to be slowly turning things around. Have you seen anything encouraging in his swing, or is this just a short hot streak?

12:07
Kiley McDaniel: Caught a game of him in Florida and hope to get another on my next trip down later this month. Two scouts I talked to said he was the best hitter in the league and the raw power is still there, so this is just one of those “power will show up in games later” situations. The track record of really good hitters getting to that power is very positive, so as long as the contact is still good, I think it comes together. The pre-draft Todd Helton comp is still in the ballpark.

12:07
Comment From Bren
There are a lot of conflicting reports out there on Gavin Cecchini’s defense. Can you fill us on anything you might be hearing?

Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 7/7/15

12:03
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here and he’s slightly sunburned from some day HS tourney games yesterday

12:08
Comment From Bob Benson
Last week in his chat, Cameron mentioned that you two had discussed Hunter Renfroe and that you would be downgrading his prospect status. Can you elaborate on why?

12:09
Kiley McDaniel: There were some contact/approach concerns on Renfroe from back in his amateur days, but he hit so you couldn’t really factor that into his prospect status as much, unless you were really convicted it wouldn’t work at higher levels, which most scouts couldn’t do because all the tools are there.He had a yellow flag of a tough half-season at AA last year that we needed to pay attention to this year and he hasn’t really improved. Now those concerns are real and that Jeff Francoeur comp I got seems more real, too.

12:09
Comment From Nick C
Are the Mets in on any other international free agents not named Gimenez or Gregory Guerrero? I know they have little money left over after trade.

12:14
Kiley McDaniel: Most prospects under 500K don’t have a high profile, so I wouldn’t expect to hear much more. That said, if you look at the J2 boardhttp://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

the Mets did the best of any team at getting two high end players and staying under their pool, with the Braves just behind them. That’s the best you can ask for among the 20+ teams staying under their pool. You have permission to be happy about this.

12:14
Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
I live near a couple Frontier League teams. How much do MLB front offices scout/keep an eye on independent minor leagues like that one?

Read the rest of this entry »


Phillies’ Sleeper Righty Franklyn Kilome Has a Velo Spike

Phillies 6-foot-6 righty Franklyn Kilome works from a high 3/4 slot and has the size, arm speed, pitches, and mentality that you want in a starting pitcher. He has shown a huge jump not only in velocity, but also with the consistency of his secondary pitches. His long, lanky frame still oozes projection and the growth he’s shown with his stuff in less than a year has been exciting to watch.

Fastball 60/70

Last summer I had Kilome sitting mostly 89-92 while touching 93 mph on occasion, so seeing him routinely in the 93-95 range and touching 96-97 at times during extended spring training shows how quickly he is developing. The command is still not where it needs to be, but the growth he’s shown in one year is very positive. The fastball is heavy and has excellent sinking action, which is amplified with the good amount of downhill plane he gets by creating angles and letting his tall frame work for him.

Read the rest of this entry »