Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 8/11/15 by Kiley McDaniel August 11, 2015 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty I’m back home after 3 weeks of travel and now I can buckle down on some fresh rankings that will be coming your way soon 12:15 Comment From groucho Thoughts on Alex Reyes? What do you think his ceiling is? 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: Saw him right before the DL stint and put up video and a report here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… There’s frontline upside if he can harness everything. 12:18 Comment From ceee With Anthony Alford starting to get a tone of attention in the Jays system with his HighA performance thus far this year, has it overshadowed what former first rounder D.J Davis has done in A ball? Eerily similar #’s, albeit one level lower. Does D.J Davis still have 5 tool potential/high upside? Or is Anthony Alford now the far and away better prospect? 12:20 Kiley McDaniel: I had Alford 9th in the system entering the season and Davis 30th: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… Alford is younger, performing better, at a higher level and is coming off a multi-year layoff from playing football. Davis’ improvement is encouraging, but Alford was a better than Davis when he was playing football and the gap is even wider now. He’ll be a top 100 prospect. 12:20 Comment From Xolo Colin Rea makes his big league debut tonight. What do you expect from him short and long term? 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: Just missed the Padres rankings and I’m told he’s improved this year. 4 pitches average to slightly above, nothing plus, cutter is best pitch, sits 89-92, hits 94, more command than stuff. Better version of Justin Hancock now due to feel/pitchability, who made the list before the season. 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: In fact, I think Rea is the best prospect by a good margin that didn’t make the Evaluating the Prospects series. Him and Matt Boyd were both pitchability guys that got more stuff this year, but Boyd’s improvement was bigger and he was better to begin with. 12:22 Comment From Michael Comfortable Kiley, any major league comps for yoan moncada’s upside? 12:23 Kiley McDaniel: There isn’t really a guy who matches the size/speed/position/bat speed/power profile, but he’s a top 10-15 prospect in baseball so just pick one of the better infielders in the league and that’s the kind of upside. 12:23 Comment From Pale Hose Hey Kiley. Are you forever stuck in evaluation and list mode? I am still holding out hope that we will get more content on the logistics, tools, and how-to of scouting. 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Once I finish cleaning the windows on the skyscraper, it’s time to start again. That said, I did do this 7 part series on the process last year, I just haven’t done the other 5-10 parts yet http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Also, the podcast may be for you since we talk about that stuff. Should be recording another one soon. 12:27 Comment From Minty When you scouted Joc, does his profile lend itself to prolonged struggles like this? Are you confident that he can turn it around? 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: He swings really hard and I think those guys always appear to be at higher risk of this sort of thing, whether that’s true or not. 12:27 Comment From Erix What kind of prospect is Connor Greene? Anthopoulos has mentioned him numerous times, but he seems to have fallen under most Jays fans’ radar 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: https://twitter.com/kileymc… Saw him a few weeks ago and he was better than advertised. 92-96, at least avg CB and CH, really clean delivery, although he’s skinny enough he may not add a ton of weight. Will be somewhere in the top 200, may be top 100. One of those projectable 40 FV arms that made the leap this year. 12:30 Comment From Impatient When should we expect to see the highly anticipated mid-season updated prospect rankings? Give the people what they want! 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: Given that I was out of a suitcase living at the field for the last 3 weeks, things had to get pushed back/changed a bit. I’ll have an updated post-deadline smaller list in the coming week or so, then the bigger update will come a little later. Showcase season just ended, so 2016/17 draft rankings will be coming along with them 12:31 Comment From EC Who was/is the better catcher: Schwarber or Harper? 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: Harper’s tools were way more impressive: quicker actions and with an 80 arm. Schwarber has lost some weight and gotten quicker than in college, but his arm is still about average and he’s always gonna be thicker and slower than you’d like a guy at this age to be, particularly since you know it’ll dampen the bat a bit. 12:32 Comment From Bren I’ve recently heard a prominent scouting publication say that Dom Smith is maxed out physically and therefore not likely to add much power. I know you’ve seen him and have gotten favorable reports, so that’s not all there is to this, right? 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: I saw him three times in the last month or two and he’s maxed out. The raw power is about 60 and he’s such a good hitter he doesn’t really get to it in games (or even show it a ton in BP) yet but there’s good reason to believe he will eventually. He’ll be fine. 12:33 Comment From Josh G Do you buy the AJ Pollock comparisons for Trent Clark? If not, is there another player you feel is a better comp at this point? 12:34 Kiley McDaniel: Clark is a LF with a slightly funny swing, above average raw power and elite bat to ball ability. Not a perfect comp out there, but closer to Hunter Pence than Pollock. 12:35 Comment From Matt If Anderson Espinoza was eligible for the 2016 draft where would he rank? 1-1 candidate? 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: He’d be in the mix but I’d bet his size would keep him from going first given the plethora of elite arms with elite size this year. He compares pretty well to Dillon Tate as far as stuff/projection (but obviously is less twitchy and 4 years younger), to give you an idea of where he’d slot in the 2015 draft. 12:36 Comment From MCG Is Sam Travis worth getting excited about as a Red Sox fan? His MiLB numbers aren’t horribly exciting, especially for power, but he’s in AA as a 21 year old. 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: Decent shot for 50 bat and 60 power, which is .260 and 25 homers, so you can decide if that’s worth getting excited about. 12:37 Comment From Andrew Gray What’s Vlad Jr.’s long-term defensive position? And when’s the earliest we could see him in Toronto? 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: Left field or first base, although arm strength can sometimes improve at this age it is fringy right now. 2019 or 2020 would make him 20 or 21 which has to be as quick as he could possibly do it. 12:38 Comment From Tim Are Groome and Pint above college guys at this early point in 2016 draft calendar? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: About to dive into that right now. Only college pitcher I think may be ahead of them is AJ Puk. Here’s what I had before the summer: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… Update coming in the next few weeks 12:40 Comment From Dunt Can Tim Anderson be a 4-5 win player at the next level? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: That’s the upside, but the plate discipline will dictate the whole thing 12:40 Comment From George Jack Flaherty struck out 12 batters over 6 innings in his latest start, does he have legit swing and miss stuff or is his stuff just too good for Midwest League hitters? 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: 50s and 55s for now, but projection and command with limited miles on the arm, so that may improve. 12:41 Comment From Candy LaChance Any info about Gabriel Mejia, the speedy CF for the Indians Arizona Rookie League team? Can he actually hit a little or is he just legging out a lot of weak grounders? 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: Good feel to hit, 70 runner 12:41 Comment From Kiley McSpaniel yip yiP!!! ruff!!! ruff!!! 12:42 Comment From Pete Francis Martes – Any update? Does he crack the top 100 or not even close. Thanks! 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: May be top 50. I was bummed to miss him by one day while I was in Cali. Talked to a guy that saw him and Dillon Tate this spring and he likes Martes more. Martes’ slider went from fringy to easy plus this year, sitting 93-97, hit 99 recently. 12:43 Comment From Mantis Toboggan, M.D. Hey Kiley, I really appreciate you doing these chats. I was hoping to get your thoughts on a couple of prospects that I recently added in a deep Dynasty League, those being Ruddy Giron and Victor Robles. 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: Robles is an easy top 100, may be top 50 prospect in baseball: dynamic quick twitch dude. Giron is more solid with a chance to be an everyday shortstop but is a long way off, like Robles. 12:44 Comment From Alex What is the best case scenario for Tapia? .300 with 15 HR and 20 SB? 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: Yeah something like that 12:44 Comment From Bill S. Preston Esq. What does C J Edwards’ future look like? I’m kinda concerned that his control problems might lead to a Carlos Marmol type of career….potentially unhittable, but not really reliable. 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: More feel than that. Doesn’t have the wacky delivery and has the stuff/command to start, but the body didn’t look like it would hold up. 12:45 Comment From Ian What’s your take on the Moncada’s 2nd half tear? 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: Doing now what people thought he would do all season, so good to see but really just recoups the value he had lost for the slow start 12:45 Comment From Proswagonist What’s the updated scouting report on Francis Martes look like? Is he now the Astros best pitching prospect? 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: Him and Appel are in the same range but heading in opposite directions 12:46 Comment From Schwarbgoatee What do you see Schwarber ultimately settling in as, and could he be a 300/375/500 guy for the Cubs? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: Eh not that good. Expect an upside more like .275/.350/.480 12:47 Comment From Jeff Any optimism based on Kyle Zimmer starting again? 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: Not expecting much anytime soon, but the upside has always been frontline starter, so you hope 12:48 Comment From Rick Thoughts on Phillies GCL line-up, specifically the recent international signings (Gamboa, Aruaz, Encarnacion, Martelo). Are there any potential difference makers in this group?? 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: Our man Chris King sees this team a lot and he’s all in on Adonis Medina, who is probably the best prospect in the group, Gamboa and Arauz are both guys as well. Phillies do really well with 6 figure Latin signings. 12:49 Comment From Josh G When does a guy no longer qualify as a prospect? Is it a certain number of MLB games/innings/plate appearances? Service time? 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: Officially, there’s a service time element, but I just use 50 IP and 130 PA 12:49 Comment From Bill S. Preston Esq. Have you been watching Schwarber’s progress (or lack thereof) behind the plate? Are you more or less confident in his ability to stick at C long-term? 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: Said from a year before he was drafted that he’s good enough to catch once or twice a week. He’s improved, but I don’t think he’s ever gonna be much more than that, due to the bat upside from keeping him fresh and the thick frame. 12:50 Comment From Brandon Greetings from the obnoxious kid at the Quakes ticket window last week! What’s De Jong’s floor/ceiling? He’s been on quite the roll since getting to Rancho 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: Thanks for the kind words! Avg FB/CH, above CB, 4th starter chance but funky enough that you don’t know if that’ll help the stuff play up or cause command/injury issues. 12:51 Comment From Pirates Hurdles How big of a step forward has Harold Ramirez taken this season? New found power, lower K rate as a 20 year old at A+. 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: Caught him for a game in Florida and liked what I saw. Another dude that swings really hard everytime like Joc and Pedroia et al but has the bat control to make contact. 12:52 Comment From EC Saw in a tweet of yours that Erick Fedde is “back.” How does that affect his stock? How’s he looking? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Pre-surgery stuff is showing up in games, so that’s potential 2/3 starter if it all works out, but likely ends up a notch or two below that 12:53 Comment From Christ Davis Trey Mancini having a huge breakout season in the Orioles farm system. What do you know about him? Could he develop into a starting first baseman? 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so. Long frame and longish swing but has plus raw and is hitting more than expected; I’d guess platoon bat, but that’s way more than his draft status would suggest. I liked him back to his days batting behind Jagielo in college and wondered why he didn’t get more attention from scouts. 12:55 Comment From Magic Jonestown What can we expect from Jose Peraza ROS? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: Speed, defensive ability, can bunt and slash but doesn’t have a great approach, in part because he could always speed his way on base in the minors 12:56 Comment From Josh G How surprised are you by Taylor Jungmann’s success thus far? Has he shown enough to improve his FV, or is the sample too small at this point? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: Reports at the end of last year said it was above average stuff and 3/4 starter was a chance if he could keep it up, which is what’s happened. I guess he’s a 50 right now, could be 55 one day. 12:57 Comment From Sal Do we see Moncada next year or is he more likely to make his debut in 2017? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: 2017 12:57 Comment From Franks Walk Is it bad that I want Moncada to bust hard? Nothing against the Red Sox, I just think a high profile, high cost international bust might spur some change in the system. 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: You’ll like him if you listen to this: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: You also may hate me 12:58 Comment From Justin Have you had a chance to scout Flaherty’s teammate Austin Gomber? 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: Saw him in college. big lefty, flashes three 55s, new velocity and stuff can be average on some days. Good chance to turn into a back-end starter 12:58 Comment From Jim What should my expectations be for Javier Guerra? Is this type of power surge legit? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: 12-15 homer upside, bat is a .260/.330 kind of upside, wouldn’t surprise me if both settle lower than that. Doesn’t really run, 50 speed at best, but defense could be +10 runs per year in the bigs, so he has a career almost regardless of his bat. 12:59 Comment From Mark Why do you choose questions asking about the same 10-15 prospects on a non-stop basis? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: It’s reflective of what’s being asked. There’s like 10 questions about Alford so it seems like people want to know what I think. I’m the people’s champion. 1:01 Comment From Ned Coletti Thoughts on Peraza as a shortstop? Seems like his allergy for walking isn’t a big issue if he gives you solid to plus defense at short with some hollow BA. 2nd part of question: any idea if that is Friedman/Zaidi’s plan? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: I think they saw a chance to acquire depth at the up the middle positions with positional versaility and speed. Like Austin Barnes and Kike Hernandez and all the depth arms they keep trading for/signing/drafting that can basically never be impact guys. They clearly are trying to leverage the money advantage for quantity and quality. They have no excuse to have a bullpen meltdown like 2014 with these resources, so you can see why. Peraza is emergency SS defensively, but that’s still some value versus a 2B-only guy. He’s fast enough that he’ll likely be fine in CF. 1:03 Comment From Peter Rank em, from highest upside to lowest. Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed, and John Lamb. All from the Cueto deal. 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 1:04 Comment From Phil I know he’s only 18 and in his first full season in A… but is Jomar Reyes worth getting excited about? A lot of local guys have been talking up his quick progress at Delmarva, to be hitting as well as he is and with a (likely) power increase to come. 1:05 Kiley McDaniel: Upside is huge. Massive raw power and huge kid with some feel to hit. There’s a chance it ends up something like Miguel Sano, but obviously isn’t at that top 25 prospect in baseball level yet. 1:05 Comment From Leprekhan Do you have any info on Randy Ventura out of the DSL? 1:05 Kiley McDaniel: Braves DSL kid. 80 runner, already has beat expectations and is kinda one dimensional for now, but knows how to use his speed and those types of guys tend to hang around for awhile. 1:06 Comment From Jimmy Johns Albies, Mateo, or Gleybe? Who do you think has the biggest upside? 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: I guess Mateo since he’s an 80 runner than can play short and hit 15 homers, but I’m most comfortable with Albies out of the group. Gleyber is in the mix as well. All three should be in the 20-60 range of the top 200 this offseason. 1:07 Comment From Tony Have you heard anything on Cody bellinger? Adam Laroche type ceiling? 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: Saw him this week. You can hope for that upside, yes. Similar type of body and swing. 1:07 Comment From Prospect Lover Kiley, Are there any stand out “Under age”, aka 17 on draft day and most of the season, in the 2016 draft that stand out to you. Ones that could go in the 1st 2 rounds? 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: Jason Groome could go 1-1 and is one of the younger guys in the class. Will have way more of these in a few weeks for you. 1:08 Comment From Ace Will Kevin Gausman put it all together eventually? 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: I think so 1:08 Comment From The Cincinnati Kid Where would you put Trea Turner on a prospect list today? Top 20? Top 10? 60FV now? 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: Probably 55, but that isn’t in stone yet. I’ve been on the high side on Turner since his freshman year at NC State. 1:09 Comment From Call Me Carlos the Dwarf Does Jose Reyes work as Jorge Mateo’s best case scenario? 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: Tools are similar but different kinds of players. Mateo takes a healthy hack and Reyes is more of a slasher. More risk/reward. 1:09 Comment From Proswagonist Which minor league level compares most closely to the SEC? It appears the short season leagues are pretty similar in talent. 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: For the tippy top SEC Friday matchup like LSU-Florida, it’s about Low-A. 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: But yes, scouts agree that most high end college games are akin to the advanced short season leagues 1:10 Comment From Josh G What are your thoughts on Demi Orimolye? Is his current production plus raw skill set enough to sniff the Top 200? 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: Not this year, but the tools are there. Only concern for me are cleaning up hitting mechanics. 1:11 Comment From Nomde Which of the Reds current rookie rotation (DeSclafani, Holmberg, Sampson, Lorenzen, or Iglesias) has the highest upside? Seems like Lorenzen, Sampson, and Iglesias still learning. 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: Lorenzen and Iglesias will both flash two + pitches at times but not consistently, so they have the highest upside 1:12 Comment From Ace Matt Duffy makes me very cynical towards prospect analysis 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: Imagine reading reports from a guy trying to pick the next Matt Duffy. He would think every fringy guy could be his ticket to being called a genius. It would be terrible. Also, I had Matt Duffy 11th in the system entering the year and mentioned Matt Carpenter in the report, so I gave you some indication he could beat expectations http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 1:14 Comment From Andrew Kiley, I’m interested in your thoughts on Kohl Stewart. Has has stuff taken a step backward in light of the lower K/9 rate? Where do you project him now in a rotation? 1:14 Kiley McDaniel: It has. Backend stuff now. Often, when the stuff downgrades, it doesn’t come back. 1:14 Comment From Derek Has Maikel Franco been a better hitter in the big leagues than you expected? Mainly regarding approach? Walking at nearly an 8% clip. 1:16 Kiley McDaniel: I liked him because I though there could be a Starling Marte esque ability to succeed with a low walk rate due to bat control and power (it was bat control and speed for Marte). Didn’t see Franco having a career best walk rate in his first half season in the big leagues, tho. 1:16 Comment From Ace Would you ever mention Daniel Norris in the same sentence as David Price ability wise? 1:18 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so. Price was 60-70 stuff and command and performance since around 19-20 years old. Norris just got the stuff and command together last year, then the command fell apart this year because the delivery has always been a problem. Norris has 55-60 stuff and no projection. Very hard to see him becoming Price level without something wacky happening. 1:18 Comment From Ace Is Rowdy Tellez a legit prospect? Have you watched him hit at all this year? 1:19 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, big guy that’s bat-only with no margin for error, but the power is plus and he has some feel to get to it. 27th in the system before the year, will obviously move up with all the traded guys ahead of him and the solid performance: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 1:19 Comment From GripsDude420 Sup Eno!!!!!!! I was peeping Bob Wickman’s pitch-type-peripherals and noticed that his v-mov is right up there with Pliny the Elder in terms of Avg ABV when taking into consideration of the overall hoppiness. What i’m getting at is Nyjer Morgan or Tim Spooneybarger in dynasty? 1:20 Kiley McDaniel: I don’t understand one word of this 1:21 Comment From Honey Nut Chirinos What are a few prospects you think we’ll be talking about more at the end the season that aren’t right now? 1:21 Kiley McDaniel: Francis Martes, Victor Robles, Anthony Alford, Brett Honeywell 1:21 Comment From FISHFAN42069 WEEKLY TYLER KOLEK FREAKOUT 1:21 Kiley McDaniel: That’s a good note to end on. Back to the rankings grind! 1:22 Kiley McDaniel: Oh and add Gilbert Lara to that above list.