What do these fellow batsmen have in common?
• Adrian Gonzalez
• Matt Kemp
• Emilio Bonifacio
• Michael Bourn
• Michael Young
Well, probably a lot, seeing as how they all share a profession, but today let us examine a particularly unique distinction: The fact that they collectively represent the top five BABIPs of the 2011 MLB season.
Let’s find out how much was luck and how much was repeatable.
Short term injuries litter the landscape of spring training, so it doesn’t usually mean too much when a player is shut down for a few days, as the Red Sox did Monday with Carl Crawford. This time, the consequences appear more serious, as the outlook is less bright for the 30-year-old coming off January wrist surgery. From manager Bobby Valentine, via the Boston Globe:
The Opening Day thing is probably not realistic. It’s not the calendar. He’ll be ready when he’s ready. As we talked about before he got here and we’ve reiterated that Carl loves to do a lot of stuff and it’s probably not in his best interest at this time to overdo it. It’s more work than his wrist needs at this time.
It isn’t known exactly how long Crawford will be out, although the thinking is he may need to start the season on the disabled list in order to take either a minor league rehab assignment or take extra at-bats in extended spring training to ready himself for the season. With just four playoff spots available for five very solid teams in Boston, New York, Tampa Bay, Texas and Los Angeles of Anaheim, how the Red Sox and their newest attempts at outfield depth respond to this first test could be key come October.
With disabled list information available going back 10 years, I have decided to examine some league wide and team trends.
League Trends
To begin with, here are the league values for trips, days and average days lost to the DL over the past 10 years.
Dare to dream.
On Thursday, we looked at Fielding Independent Offense (FIO) — as well as the Should Hit formula — and decided to toss stolen bases into the equation. The result were, let’s say, brow-elevating.
Today, we are going to put that result — the FIO formula — into action.
In the timeless words of Sir Samuel Leroy Jackson: “Hold onto your butts!”
Read the rest of this entry »
After spending more than 14 years donning the tools of ignorance, Jason Varitek is calling it a career. The veteran backstop will announce his retirement on Thursday according to The Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham, and he’s expected to remain with the organization in some non-playing capacity.
Varitek, 39, was the homegrown Red Sox player that didn’t actually grow up in their farm system. He was originally drafted 14th overall by the Mariners in 1994 and spent more than two years in their minor league system before being traded to Boston along with Derek Lowe in exchange for Heathcliff Slocumb at the 1997 trade deadline. That has to be one of the most lopsided deals of the last 25 years or so. Unlike Lowe, Varitek never played a game for the Mariners, instead topping out at Triple-A.
So far as Long National Nightmares go, the Theo Epstein Compensation Saga has been neither the longest nor most nightmare-y. However, in terms of handwringing and electronic ink spilt relative to notable developments, it’s been pretty formidable.
And, in fact, despite reports of a resolution late this morning, the matter will remain curiously unresolved even after today. According to the Red Sox official Twitter feed (and the entire rest of the internet), Boston has acquired 26-year-old right-hander Chris Carpenter and a player to be named later from the Cubs in exchange for a different PTBNL.
In terms of the actual value of the deal for either club, Dave Cameron provided the conceptual scaffolding for that conversation back in early October, noting generally that, whatever marginal value Epstein provided over, say, a “freely available” general manager such as White Sox Assistant GM Rick Hahn, it likely wasn’t worth an actual player.
Tim Wakefield wasn’t the best pitcher in Red Sox history (that’s Pedro Martinez), nor was he the most entertaining (guys like Bill “Spaceman” Lee, Luis Tiant and yes, Pedro, have that territory marked), but what he was one of the Nation’s favorites. For 17 years, he pitched, and acted, with the same stoicism. He never put himself above the game, and was always, always ready to take the ball, be it the top of the first, the bottom of the fourth, or the top of the 12th. He is set to announce his retirement today, but his legend will live forever.
Lest we forget though, his legend didn’t originate in Boston, but rather in Pittsburgh. Or, to put a finer point on it, Welland, Ontario. It was there that Wakefield began his transformation from banjo-hitting infielder to knuckleballer extraordinaire. The early results were promising — a 3.40 ERA in 18 appearances for the Bucs’ Low-A affiliate. Two and a half years later, he was in the Majors. He would finish third in the 1992 National League Rookie of the Year voting, despite not making his Major League debut until July 31. He built on his impressive two months in the postseason, winning two of the Pirates’ three games in the National League Championship Series against Atlanta, with both victories coming against Tom Glavine.
Intentional walks (IBB) are usually given to good and/or unprotected players in a lineup. Pitchers would rather face the next, weaker hitting batter. The IBBs lead to an inflated walk rate (BB%) for hitters. By removing IBB from a player’s BB%, a true walk rate emerges. A problem I noticed was that when a player’s IBB% increases so does their non-intentional walk rate (NIBB%). Here is an attempt at putting some numbers behind the assumption.
For fans wondering how new Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine will run the team, his recent comments on pitch counts and pitcher health could make fans of the Red Sox and/or logic cringe and make Red Sox pitchers fear for the health of their pitching arm. In a recent interview, Valentine made it clear that he was neither a fan of pitch counts nor innings limits on his pitchers. On the topic of pitch counts, Valentine offered:
The one thing that doesn’t compute is less is better. It doesn’t match. More is better.
Valentine is partially correct that there is little evidence to demonstrate that strict adherence to a pitch count prevents injuries to adult pitchers, but at the same time I am not aware of any studies that demonstrate that having a higher pitch count actually reduces the risk of injury.
Prospects have never been trendier amongst baseball fans than they are right now. The MLB Draft is now televised, most baseball blogs and online publications now publish at least a Top 10 Prospects list for each organization, and struggling fan bases such as that of the Kansas City Royals have begun to see their attendance rise as their prized minor leaguers begin to reach the majors.
The same can be said for their popularity within major league organizations, too.
Teams have begun pouring so much money into the draft that the new CBA contains specific limitations to curb the spending spree. Teams now often value control years more than overall talent and have become extremely cautious in parting with top prospects to acquire proven talent. This generalization goes for both big-market and small-market franchises, too, which is something that was not often said in previous years.
Which teams have benefited most from homegrown talent in recent years? Which teams have drafted amateur players and developed them into major league talent the best?
