If just for the sake of my writing, I set up a narrative for this series. The Tigers’ star power against the Athletics’ depth, speed, defense and bullpen. There have been a few asterisks so far, but surprisingly, the narrative has held. On Thursday, that narrative will meet Justin Verlander.
On September 18th, Max Scherzer was removed from his start after two innings because of shoulder woes. There might not be a more troubling word in the world of pitching than ‘shoulder.’ Once it goes, with it goes your velocity, which is much worse than the risk of temporary loss of playing time and control that the elbow offers. We had so much success predicting a low-scoring game for Anibal Sanchez yesterday, let’s wash off the template and start again. Did something happen in mid-September that fundamentally changed Scherzer’s game?
Tonight’s game three between the Tigers and Athletics features two starters that weren’t on their team’s active roster when the season began. But since Brett Anderson’s absence was due to injury, it was Anibal Sanchez that has given us a full season’s worth of stats to digest and so he’ll be the subject of our inquiry.
The fact that he’s given us stats all year isn’t to say Sanchez has been the same guy all year. If August Anibal shows up, the Athletics might be able to take advantage of their depth, defense and speed. If September’s version of the Tigers’ pitcher takes the mound, it will instead be the story of Detroit’s depth in the rotation that will end the series.
Episode 257
First, imagine FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron. Next, imagine all baseball. Now, imagine Dave Cameron analyzing all baseball. That’s precisely what follows in this episode of FanGraphs Audio.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 34 min. play time.)
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A series between two teams full of unique individuals doesn’t really fit into a nice plot with themes, characters and nemeses. But when in setting up this series, it still made sense to highlight the depth and undervalued skills on the Athletics and the top-heavy, star-driven status of the Tigers team. Two plate appearances from Sunday’s game two between these two teams seemed to encapsulate the overall matchup well, and highlight many of those same themes.
If you hadn’t been paying close attention to the Athletics and the Tigers, you might have a couple preconceptions about the matchup. Maybe “old, slow sluggers” vs “speedy upstart youngsters.” Or maybe “tradition” vs “moneyball two.” Or maybe even “offense and an ace” vs “pitching and defense.” Delve further into the numbers, though, and this matchup between the elephants and the tigers isn’t so easily monikered.
Let’s all go ahead and agree right now that the worst day of Josh Hamilton’s life probably had nothing to do with baseball. I’m not going to go into any detail, and you shouldn’t need for me to go into any detail. Who knows where Hamilton would even be were it not for having baseball in his life? Baseball, for Josh Hamilton, is a blessing, that which helps to save him from what he could otherwise become.
But in terms of just on-field baseball performance, Josh Hamilton on Wednesday might have had the worst day of his career. Hamilton, of course, has been through more devastating games, such as the last two in last year’s World Series, but those were devastating on a team level. On Wednesday, individually, Hamilton sucked, and as such he’s one of the players responsible for the Rangers still having to win another game before they can think about the ALDS.
Remember when the Texas Rangers were running away with everything and were on course to be the the Greatest Team in the History of Whatever? Well, this afternoon the As might just take the 2012 American League West title from them. Certainly the biggest factor in the Oakland’s success this year was the incredibly boring Moneyball movie (if only they had used the alternate script), but there are many other storylines to follow, from injured pitchers to rookie pitchers to Yoenis Cespedes‘ video to San Jose. Bu for all the wondering about what New Inefficiency the As may or may not have found, one thing worth investigating is how the As have maximized their runs scoring by turning back the clock to a strategy more common fifty years ago than it is now: platoons. How much of a difference has successful platooning made for Oakland?
It was almost too easy to call the demise of Ryan Dempster when he was dealt from the Cubs to the Rangers in July. DIPS theory will always have its share of headscratchers, but Dempster’s case was clear cut: with the Cubs, he managed a .242 BABIP and a 9.0% HR/FB compared to career marks of .301 and 10.5% respectively. Upon being moved out of one of the worst divisions and into one of the toughest — and one of the toughest parks to pitch in — Dempster has allowed a .319 BABIP and a 13.5% HR/FB. His ERA skyrocketed from 2.25 with Chicago to 4.64 with Texas. Simple stuff.
Now, thanks to a remarkable charge by Oakland, the Rangers are left with one last game to claim the American League West and avoid the dreaded Wild Card play-in game with Dempster on the hill. Even since being traded out of the cozy confines of the National League, Dempster has had success in the larger American League road parks. He allowed eight runs in six innings against the Yankees, but in his other five road starts, Dempster owns a 2.82 ERA with a 3.48 FIP, including 29 strikeouts against 10 walks in 28.2 innings.
The key difference between Dempster on the road — the Dempster we’ll see this afternoon in Oakland — and Dempster at home? Road Dempster attacks the strike zone.
A few weeks ago, I advocated for a wild card play-in game strategy that involved beginning the game with a reliever and relying heavily on a team’s bullpen to get them through. In that scenario, we used the Atlanta Braves as the example of how it could work. Well, we’re not yet to the wild card play-in game, but with Texas and Oakland going head to head for the AL West title in a few hours, we’re presented with another situation where skipping the starter makes a lot of sense – specifically, the Oakland A’s should try to maximize their chances of winning Game 162, and they can do so by diminishing A.J. Griffin’s role in today’s game.
Make no mistake, Griffin has pitched really well for the A’s since they called him up from Sacramento in late June. While his ERA is heavily dependent on an unsustainably low BABIP, his FIP and xFIP are both above average as well, as his 3.76 K/BB ratio is the kind of thing that usually leads to success. This isn’t a knock on A.J. Griffin – the A’s can simply maximize their chances of winning by minimizing the amount of batters he faces.