Archive for Brewers
Free Agent Market: First Base and Designated Hitter
Today’s installment of our series on the coming free agent market takes a look at some of the first base and DH options that will be available. While the 2012 free agent class is pretty shallow overall, at first base (and DH, if you include it) there is some true quality and a bit of depth. At the top of the list are an old player, a player some people think will get old fast, and a player some people think is older than he says he is.
The NL Central: Powerhouse?
We know this much: The NL will send a team from its Central Division to the World Series. Who? We do not yet know. But: The fact remains that this circumstance is no less a surprise to many prognosticators, forecasting systems, and blathering media faces. I cannot recall any one credible source projecting the the NL Central as the team to send a World Series team into the fray — much less to two playoff-teams to the tourney.
Nonetheless, here we sit on the cold stone of pondering, staring into the abyss of unpredictability, the majestic, mysterious abyss of this:
A moon ago, we heard news of the impending Astro’s sale, which comes with a DH apparently, as the proud once-Colt .45s intend to move AL-wise.
This is bad news for the top chihuahuas of the NL Central who feasted on their weak division, and produced perhaps the two least-qualified World Series contenders in a long… long… long time.
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NLCS Scouting: Gallardo vs. Carpenter
Just look at that lovely mug.
Tonight’s NCLS matchup, pending the game isn’t rained out: Yovani Gallardo vs. Chris Carpenter.
The First Moves for Cubs GM Theo Epstein
News broke this morning that Red Sox President of Baseball Operations (the de facto Red Sox GM) Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs have agreed to, though not finalized, terms which will bring the Yale grad to Chicago’s Northside. The deal appears to be worth $20M over five years, but the Cubs will undoubtedly need to send compensation (say, a prospect or some Benjamins) the Red Sox’s way — which may well escalate the cost beyond what’s beneficial to the Cubs.
If the compensation package includes a number of significant prospects, this may well result in Theo Epstein starting from scratch as the Cubs GM. So, let’s assume he is starting with a largely depleted farm system (one that was half-depleted in the Matt Garza trade). What moves does Epstein need to make immediately? And no, extending John Grabow is not one of them.
1) Fill the Front Office
The Jim Hendry regime nearly took pride in how small their front office was. They had scouts, sure, but their “statistics department” had long consisted of one man, Chuck Wasserstrom, until Cubs owner Tom Ricketts doubled their staff, bringing in Ari Kaplan and presumably purchasing a few more bristles for their push-broom.
NLCS Statistical Scouting: Jackson vs. Marcum
Because I’ve been a horrible person and not included this in my past few articles, thanks to the Joe Lefkowitz Pitch F/x tool for the data in these posts.
Earlier I looked at today’s ALCS game, so now we move on to tonight’s NLCS matchup: Edwin Jackson vs. Shaun Marcum.
Is Shaun Marcum Burnt Out?
As Shaun Marcum takes the mound for Game 2 of the NLCS against Milwaukee tonight, the shadow of a 4.2 inning, seven run implosion against Arizona in Game 3 of the NLDS will loom large. But Marcum’s first playoff start is the only recent negative for the right-handed changeup specialist: Marcum has only put together two solid outings since the calendar flipped to September. After hanging seven innings of shutout, one-hit ball against the Astros on September 4th, Marcum has made five starts (including the playoff outing) for a total of 29 innings, 25 earned runs (a 7.76) ERA, a rough 18-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and six home runs.
The playoff start puts the 29-year-old’s innings total for the year at 205.1, a career high, just over the 195.1 he posted coming off Tommy John surgery last season. With Marcum, never a picture of durability, we must ask: Are these struggles just the struggles pitchers work through over long seasons, or is he burnt out after the longest season of his career?
Yuni Betancourt: Useful Shortstop?
Yuniesky Betancourt ranked dead last qualified amongst shortstops in 2011, racking up +0.5 WAR in 584 plate appearances. Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin reportedly scoured the trade market for upgrades prior to the July 31 Trade Deadline, but was unable to come to terms on a deal. And with no legitimate upgrade on the postseason roster, Milwaukee entered the 2011 postseason with the worst everyday shortstop in the league in their starting lineup.
Surprisingly, that has turned out to be extremely fortunate for the Brewers.
In a 1-1 game in the sixth inning of Game 5 of the NLDS, Arizona’s Chris Young made a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch in center field to rob Jerry Hairston Jr. of an extra-base hit and save the go-ahead run. That brought up Yuniesky Betancourt at the plate with two outs, runners on first and second, and Arizona’s ace Ian Kennedy on the mound.
Jeremy Hellickson: Strikeouts Cometh
Join me! The rabbit hole is suspiciously warm.
The Tampa Bay Rays are now down 1-2 in the ALDS, placing their hopes for a Rangers rout on the shoulders of rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. The so-called Hellboy takes the mound at 2:07 p.m. ET today, facing Rangers lefty Matt Harrison.
The match-up, to say the least, favors the Rangers. Not only does Harrison have the edge in FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.94), he has the added bonus of a seemingly normal BABIP (.290) and LOB% (72.3%). Hellickson has only an ERA edge (2.95); the rest suggests impending doom: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, .223 BABIP, and 82.0% LOB%.
Well, Hellickson does have at least one major thing going for him: A serious and unusual strikeout regression.
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Underappreciated Play: Greinke Picks Off Roberts
There was a certain level of anxiety around Milwaukee as the season wound down and Zack Greinke‘s first playoff start approached. I kept reminding my friends that Roy Halladay’s first playoff start was a no-hitter. But, of course, I was a bit worried myself, and it turned out that worry was warranted: Zack Greinke gave up four runs on three homers over his five inning start. It was good enough to keep the Brewers tied or in the lead throughout, however, and he lasted long enough to allow the Brewers to blow the game open in the sixth.
Plenty has been made of this big sixth inning, but I would like to highlight one play which has gone under the radar. Specifically, I am referring to Zack Greinke’s pickoff of Ryan Roberts in the top of the fourth inning.
The play can be viewed here.