Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

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The corner outfielder often gets lumped into the mix with the first basemen / designated hitter types. You might call that part of the market the ‘last piece saloon.’ But, Raul Ibanez aside, corner outfielders need to be able to run a little bit, too.

Oh, would you look at that, Ibanez is a free agent. But who needs a corner outfielder at all? Depending on how they put their team together, the Braves could maybe use another outfielder. The Red Sox have an opening, but after their last high-priced acquisition in the outfield, and their plethora of in-house options, it might not be a priority. Both Chicago teams are a maybe, with the NL version more probable. Do the Dodgers have any money? The Giants will sign one for sure. The A’s will wait for a bargain, as they always do. The Mariners have to be considered dark horses for any piece of offense. The Nationals could try again. That pretty much defines your market, and it’s a pretty decent one in terms of demand.

What does the supply look like?

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A pitcher even finer than even these two upstanding gents!

Quick! There’s no time to waste!

Name the five best FIP- seasons in the history of MLB. (Minimum, a scant 20 IP.)

I’d imagine your list includes Eric Gagne‘s crazy 2003 and Pedro Martinez’s nutso 1999 season. And you’d be correct. But there’s another modern-day pitcher you’d have only guessed if you had cleverly looked at the title of this post:

1) Ed Cushman, 10 FIP- (1884, year of our lord)
2) Henry Porter, 13 FIP- (1884)
3) Eric Gagne, 20 FIP- (2003)
4) Sergio Romo, 25 FIP- (2011)
5) Pedro Martinez, 30 FIP- (1999)

I imagine there are a number of baseball fans who, like myself, had not even heard of Sergio Romo until they made him their setup man while playing Baseball Mogul 2008.

We’ll learn his name because he might be one of the greatest late-blooming relievers in the history of the game.
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With the season nearing its end (and my team out of the playoffs), I believe it is time to start thinking about the offseason, and more specifically; trades. Trading is something that has been deeply studied in economics and international finance and it may be informative to employ economic theory to baseball. The law of comparative advantage is one such theory, and I am going to try and apply it to baseball in away I haven’t yet seen.

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Join me! The rabbit hole is suspiciously warm.

The Tampa Bay Rays are now down 1-2 in the ALDS, placing their hopes for a Rangers rout on the shoulders of rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. The so-called Hellboy takes the mound at 2:07 p.m. ET today, facing Rangers lefty Matt Harrison.

The match-up, to say the least, favors the Rangers. Not only does Harrison have the edge in FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.94), he has the added bonus of a seemingly normal BABIP (.290) and LOB% (72.3%). Hellickson has only an ERA edge (2.95); the rest suggests impending doom: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, .223 BABIP, and 82.0% LOB%.

Well, Hellickson does have at least one major thing going for him: A serious and unusual strikeout regression.
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Pablo Sandoval hit for the cycle during the Giants’ 8-5 victory over the Rockies last night, ably and entertainingly broken down by Jeff Sullivan here. It has been quite a journey for Kung Fu Panda, who went from exciting young Giants third baseman to bench player during San Francisco’s run to the World Championship in 2010. Criticized by the organization for his weight, he came into 2011 slimmed-down and has returned to his impressive pre-2010 performance level. What makes the timing of the cycle so interesting is that it comes so soon after reports surfaced that he has gained back much of the weight he lost during the off-season. Sandoval is a big guy, but is he the biggest-boned player to hit for a cycle since the beginning of FanGraph’s play-by-play data (1974)?

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The MLB season is drawing to a close, which means it’s about time for rampant speculation about next year’s free agents. One of my favorite off-season storylines is that of the east Asian baseball markets both giving and absorbing talent.

This past off season, we witnessed the likes of Chad Tracy, Wladimir Balentien, and Micah Hoffpauer head west to the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league while Japan sent Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Ryan Vogelsong Minnesota and California’s way.

Let’s look at the present NPB league statistics, so we can start writing our wishlists and dreaming about next year’s rosters.

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We knew the Giants were going to miss Zack Wheeler when they pulled the trigger on the deal to acquire Carlos Beltran. Brian Sabean was sacrificing a piece at the future for the sake of the present. Many of us thought the pain would at least be dulled by a postseason appearance and a shot at defending their 2010 championship. It’s OK, though. We all make mistakes. Myself included:

The Giants’ addition of Beltran should put the NL West title squarely in the bank for San Francisco, as they already hold a three-game lead over a flawed Arizona team. Beltran will replace Nate Schierholtz in right field. The 27-year-old right fielder has been serviceable so far, posting a 109 wRC+, but Beltran has been worth nearly three more wins this season and could be an upgrade of as much as two wins over the next 50 games and change remaining.

Whoops.

Fast forward to September. The Giants have dropped 11.5 games in the standings and, depending on your source, have between a 0.2% and 0.3% chance of winning the National League West. Beltran’s play hasn’t quite been what the Giants were hoping for — the 34-year-old has a .296/.333/.463, good, but not superstar-level — and he’s spent much of his time in San Francisco injured and on the pine, missing 14 games and only playing in 28.

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It’s clear the Giants are in desperation mode. Now seven games out with 19 to go, they’ve jettisoned their disappointing veterans and have called on hands onto the deck. Wednesday night, facing righty Aaron Harang in San Diego, two of those callups were in the game. Did their inclusion on the lineup card actually constitute a mistake on the part of the Giants? Has their search for lightning in a bottle set them astray?

First, the more obvious head-scratcher. Perhaps on the basis of his Tuesday night home run, 27-year-old rookie Brett Pill was inserted into the sixth spot. Pill is a righty. Brandon Belt is a lefty. Harang is a righty. So that’s strike one for the managerial team in San Francisco.

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Going into this season, ZiPS projected Madison Bumgarner to have a 3.93 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP built on the back of a 5.84 K/9 and a 2.78 BB/9. It’s safe to say that he outdid those conservative numbers this year. Was this more about improvement or consolidation of talent? In other words, did Bumgarner say the same in the face of regression, or did he take fundamental steps forward this season?

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