In this, their long-overdue rebuilding year, the Chicago Cubs have redefined terrible on the North Side. They currently sport an Major League Baseball-low 24 wins and have a dreadful duo of punchless offense and impotent pitching.

But they are not without trade chips as they approach a dark second half. Bryan LaHair and Jeff Samardzija — who possess an attractive blend of affordability and upside — and Ryan Dempster, Geovany Soto and David DeJesus will all get a number of inquiries as the deadline approaches. But the team is particularly eager to sell one asset more quickly than the others. His name is Alfonso Soriano.

Signed to a double-albatross contract — awarding the 36-year-old an $18 million salary through 2012, 2013 and 2014 — Soriano has no hopes of playing at a value commensurate with his income. However, he’s not without his strengths, and for certain teams looking for a power-hitting righty, Soriano might be the right fit.
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Heading into Tuesday’s games, the White Sox and Indians sit half a game apart atop of the American League Central division, with the expected division-winner Tigers five games back. This morning, Chris Cwik addressed the White Sox’ need to upgrade at third base to stay competitive in the division. The Indians need an upgrade as well–a big, powerful upgrade.

The Indians’ 32-27 record is a bit misleading. Cleveland’s scored only 261 runs and allowed 277, putting the team’s Pythagorean record at 28-31. The Tigers have nearly the same split and sit at 28-32 in the standings. The White Sox, on the other hand, have scored 291 runs and allowed 256, putting their 32-26 pretty much in line with their expected record.

Cleveland’s offense is doing somethings well. The Tribe has the highest walk rate (9.8%) and the lowest strikeout rate (16.2%) in the American League, putting them third in the league in on-base percentage (.329). But the Indians’ wOBA (.314) ranks only ninth. Why? A complete lack of power.

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If you hadn’t guessed from my first piece on Midwest League prospects, the league is simply loaded with talent. Taking that statement one step further, few would argue it was the best prospect league in all of minor league baseball at present. In this installment, seven more prospects ranging from the relative unknowns to household names (if there is such a thing when it comes to prospects).

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On Tuesday, Dan Szymborski utilized his ZIPS projection system and the standings as of Monday night to re-cast the projected standings for the end of the season in a piece for ESPN Insider. In those standings, the Detroit Tigers were still listed as the projected winners of the AL Central, nudging out the Indians by a two game margin with their projected final total of 87 wins.

Since that article was posted, the Indians completed a three game sweep of the Tigers, even beating Detroit with Justin Verlander on the mound this afternoon. The sweep widened the Indians lead to six games (with 118 to go), and made the Indians the new favorites to end the year as the division winners.

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Shin-Soo Choo is a BABIP wizard. Sort for batting average on balls in play since 2008, and sitting there in second place is Choo. After four years of BABIPs in the high .300s, he dropped back to earth in 2011 but still finds himself above the league norm these days. Even with over 2000 plate appearances under his belt, it’s fair to ask: what does Choo’s true-talent BABIP look like?

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With the closest Midwest League stadium five hours away, my providing first hand scouting coverage of that league is difficult to say the least. Fortunately, a contact has been kind enough to provide me the scouting scoop on more than a handful of the league’s top prospects. These aren’t exact quotes, but summaries of conversations had over the course of the first two months of the minor league season. Read the rest of this entry »

Cleveland’s 5-3 win over preseason divisional favorite Detroit may have finally garnered their current divisional lead some attention. What is at least somewhat surprising about Cleveland’s lead is that some of their seemingly more significant pieces have performed poorly — one thinks particularly of the supposed top of their starting rotation (Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson). However, the offense has been playing well, relatively speaking. They currently have the best wRC+ out of all the teams in the division.

Cleveland’s good hitting so far this season can be credited to Carlos Santana, the resurgence (at least in walk rate) of Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Kipnis starting the year in the majors, and yet another early-season hot streak by Jack Hannahan, Cleveland’s most valuable hitter to this point in the season has been shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera had a excellent 2011 that led to a nice extension, but most observers (as well as projection systems) expected regression. So far, that has not happened. Cabrera has been even better in the young 2012 season (153 wRC+ compared to 118 in 2011). How is he doing it, and to what extent is it sustainable?

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Episode 183
David Laurila (@DavidLaurilaQA), curator of FanGraphs’ Q&A Series, talks both to Indians rock-and-roll pitching coach Scott Radinsky and also closer Chris Perez.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 19 min. play time.)

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Casey Blake has retired. While some might think of him as the “veteran presence” the Dodgers acquired for Carlos Santana (Colletti!), Blake had his other moments.

Blake did have some good seasons with both Cleveland and Los Angeles, and went to the playoffs with both teams. He was rarely exceptional, but he generally provided good value for a guy who did not become a major-league regular until he was 29. In memory of his career, let’s look at his three biggest hits according to Win Probability Added.

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Coming off a six-win season in 2010, right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez disappointed on the mound last year, splitting time between the Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Indians. His velocity dropped significantly. The dominating stuff that made him a Cy Young candidate seemingly disappeared. He became rather ordinary and frustrating for two separate fan bases. It all resulted in a below-average 4.68 ERA.

Hope for improvement existed for 2012, however. His 3.67 FIP suggested Jimenez pitched much better than his earned run average indicated — largely due to the fact that his BABIP and LOB% were both worse than his career averages — and his 88 FIP- indicated that he ranked better than league average on the mound.

Fast forward to 2012, and we clearly see that the potential improvement for Ubaldo Jimenez simply has not come to fruition. In fact, the 28-year-old continues to deteriorate on the mound. His stuff is declining precipitously, and his peripheral numbers are trending in the wrong direction.

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