The Marlins are having another firesale. Their most recent now-for-future trade sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis in return for four players, with hard-thrower Sandy Alcantara and fast-runner Magneuris Sierra as the primary pieces coming back. Eric likes both enough to give them 50 FV grades, as their carrying tools make it likely they’ll be MLB players in some form, and if they make any kind of strides, they could become impact players in Miami.

Up front, I will say that I’m not a huge fan of these kinds of bets. Alcantara is arm strength without performance, which is the basic profile of every guy who got taken in the Rule 5 draft this morning. Sierra is extremely fast but isn’t yet clearly an elite defender, so the questions about his bat are problematic. And while I understand that he was 21 last year, began the year in A-ball, and probably shouldn’t have faced MLB competition at that point in his development, I would like to present some very-small-sample Statcast numbers that are kind of scary.

500 players put at least 40 tracked balls in play last year. 497 of them hit their fly balls and line drives harder than Magneuris Sierra. The two that didn’t were pitchers, and not just any pitchers; two of the worst-hitting pitchers alive. Dickey has a career wRC+ of -4. Gonzalez has a career wRC+ of -36. These are the guys who hit the ball in the air like Magneuris Sierra just hit the ball in the air.

Jeff often talks about how looking at what a player does even once can show that the ability is there, if not the consistency. By looking at max distance, perhaps we can see something about what a hitter is currently capable of offensively, even in limited samples. Magneuris Sierra hit a ball no further than 331 feet. Six of the seven guys below that total were pitchers; the other one is basically out of baseball.

And if you’re wondering if this arbitrary cutoff just excludes a bunch of other big league hitters in the mid-330s, well, nope. After Sierra is Gio Gonzalez again (333 feet), then Marco Hernandez (341), then Kenta Maeda (348), then Travis Jankowski (351). Sierra was 20 feet short of the mark put up by an elite speed/defense guy who couldn’t hit well enough to stay in the big leagues.

Same idea as the max distance, but EV would give him credit for hitting it hard even if he hit it on the ground. Some guys just need launch angle changes, after all, so if he was hitting hard ground balls, that’s worth knowing. But, again, nope.

It’s five pitchers and Ronald Torreyes in Sierra’s territory. Torreyes is a utility infielder who is hanging around because he makes a lot of contact. Sierra doesn’t even really do that.

So, yeah. Magneuris Sierra is 21. These samples are tiny. Guys develop. He’s fast and might turn into an elite defender. There are lots of caveats here.

But if it’s me, and I’m trading a guy like Marcell Ozuna, I want some real stuff in return. Given what he just did in the Majors, I think it’s fair to wonder if he just falls outside the barrier of Major League offensive quality. Running is great, but Terrance Gore isn’t really a big leaguer. And if I’m the Marlins, I’d be pretty worried that I just traded for the next Terrance Gore.

With Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna having been dealt, the Marlins might as well go all the way and sell everything they can.

Half-measures have no value at this point, in this process. This is an everything-must-go sale. The Marlins are bottoming out with or without Yelich, so they might as well cash in on his considerable value now for younger pieces that could conceivably be part of the next competitive Marlins team. And while the notion of a “competitive Marlins team” seems merely like a hypothetical at the moment, it could become a reality in the wake of a rebuild. That rebuild likely wouldn’t reach its apex until after 2022, though, the club’s last year of control over Yelich.

The Marlins have one of the weakest systems in baseball, and the returns from the Stanton and Ozuna deals are unlikely to elevate the team’s farm into the upper, or even middle, tier of the rankings.

While there are some reports suggesting that Miami intends to keep Yelich, that makes little sense at this point. The Marlins do seem open to fielding offers.

The club’s new ownership group has been criticized for dumping Stanton’s contract and trading Ozuna while failing to receive a single top-100 prospect in the process. Ozuna and Stanton combined for 96 home runs and 12 WAR last season.

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The Miami Marlins received a quartet of prospects – OF Magneuris Sierra, RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Zac Gallen, and LHP Daniel Castano — from St. Louis in exchange for All-Star outfielder Marcell Ozuna on Wednesday afternoon. Sierra and Alcantara ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, on our recent Cardinals farm system audit, while Gallen ranked 18th. Castano didn’t make the list, which has full reports regarding everyone I discuss below.

Alcantara reached the majors in 2017 but had a somewhat disappointing season, posting a 4.44 ERA at Double-A and a lower strikeout rate relative to his 2016 numbers. He throws hard, 95-99 as a starter and 98-101 in relief, and had one of the more promising curveballs in the minors entering this season. But Alcantara’s repertoire was tinkered with this year. Though he was throwing the curveball early in the season, it was scrapped in his major-league appearances in deference to a mediocre slider, perhaps because Alcantara was exhibiting a higher arm slot when he threw his curveball. In his 2017 Fall League run, Alcantara was utilizing both a curve and slider, though neither was very good. His changeup, which projects to plus, is now his best secondary pitch.

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You could say that, in recent years, the Cardinals and Marlins have dealt with opposite strengths and weaknesses. Even leaving ownership issues aside, the Cardinals have fielded teams full of pretty good players, with precious few great ones. The Marlins, meanwhile, have had their great players, but they couldn’t surround them with any depth. With the Marlins presently tearing down, it made all the sense in the world for the Cardinals to try to get their ear. And although the Cardinals ultimately couldn’t get Giancarlo Stanton to waive his no-trade clause, Wednesday they’ve settled for a powerful alternative. The newest outfielder in St. Louis is none other than Marcell Ozuna.

This is the kind of trade the Cardinals were lined up to make. This is a form of talent consolidation, and the team might not be finished. The Cubs are just within reach, and the Cardinals aren’t happy missing the playoffs two years in a row. They made it a mission of theirs to acquire some form of impact bat. From the Marlins’ side, this was inevitable, unavoidable. This is how a rebuild proceeds, and the years ahead will be ugly. With luck, the Marlins will have a promising 2021. With luck, the Cardinals will have a promising 2018.

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At some point today, it will probably be announced that the Cardinals have acquired Marcell Ozuna from the Marlins, likely for some combination including Jack Flaherty and Sandy Alcantara. Ozuna isn’t quite Giancarlo Stanton, but St. Louis wants another good outfielder, and they have the pitching the Marlins are looking for.

But yesterday, it came out that the Orioles are willing to listen to offers for Manny Machado. They also are looking for arms, and reportedly want a pair of MLB-ready pitchers in exchange for their franchise player. While the Cardinals infield is more crowded than their outfield, Machado would still represent a substantial upgrade for them at either SS or 3B, and it’s fair to assume they kicked around the pros and cons of pursuing him as their big bat acquisition.

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In a few hours, the Yankees will hold a press conference here in Orlando to officially welcome Giancarlo Stanton to their organization. They landed the reigning NL MVP just 24 hours after he vetoed trades to the Giants and Cardinals and said New York was one of just four destinations he would approve a trade to. Left with minimal leverage, Derek Jeter and Michael Hill engineered a trade with Jeter’s old club, sending Stanton to the Bronx for Starlin Castro and a couple of low-level prospects.

The reaction to the decision has been almost universally negative. The Marlins’ new ownership group began their tenure by behaving much like the old one, dumping their best player to cut payroll. Instead of hope and change, it looks like more of the same in south Florida.

But while Jeter has made a number of apparent missteps since taking over as the head of the organization, and made some mistakes with the Stanton negotiations specifically, I think it’s also worth pointing out that, on a pure baseball level, the Marlins seemed to come out okay here.

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Today, the Marlins acquired two prospects, RHP Jorge Guzman and SS Jose Devers, as part of the package sent from New York in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton. Below are scouting reports on those prospects as well as thoughts on whom, within New York’s system, might represent a competent stopgap replacement at second base for the spot vacated by Starlin Castro, who was traded to Miami as part of the deal.

Miami’s New Prospects

Houston signed Jorge Guzman in June of 2014, just before the end of the 2013-14 international signing period. He was a bit older than most other IFA signees but still spent his first pro season in the Dominican Summer League. The following year, 2016, he split the season between the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues and began to generate some buzz around baseball as he was seen by a larger number of pro scouts. In November of 2016, he was traded to New York as part of the package for Brian McCann, which also included RHP Albert Abreu. Guzman was seen as a premium arm-strength lottery ticket at the time, sitting 95-97 and touching 102.

In 2017, Guzman went to the New York-Penn League and threw strikes with a 96-102 mph fastball and plus slider. He struck out 88 hitters in 66 innings. His changeup is still raw, and scouts don’t like his stiff, hunched posture during his delivery, but he throws strikes and has a chance to start. He could have an 80 fastball and 70 slider at peak, which alone could make him an elite reliever. If Marlins player development can improve his changeup, or develop a different third pitch, his ceiling as a rotation piece is quite high. He enters his age-22 season in 2018.

Jose Devers is a shortstop who hit .245/.336/.342 as a 17-year-old in the GCL this year. He has an immature but projectable 6-foot frame, and his physical composition is such that scouts think he’ll fill out and add strength as he matures. He has precocious feel for hitting but currently lacks the physicality and swing plane to do any real damage with the bat. Devers’ actions and arm strength are such that scouts think he has a chance to be an above-average defensive shortstop, so he doesn’t necessarily have to develop an impact bat to profile as a big leaguer. There’s a perfect-world outcome in which Devers’ frame develops in that Goldilocks zone that affords him the physicality necessary to punish the baseball even as he retains the agility to stay at shortstop, though it sounds like a swing tweak might also be necessary for such an outcome.

I have a 50 FV on Guzman, which means he’ll garner heavy consideration for this offseason’s top 100, and a pretty aggressive 40 on Devers based largely on his frame, athleticism, and natural feel to hit. Where does that rank on our yet-to-be-released Marlins list? Well, 2016 first-rounder Braxton Garrett — low-to-mid 90s, above-average curveball, above-average changeup, chance for plus command — would be soundly ahead of Guzman if he hadn’t required Tommy John in June. Brian Anderson and the newly acquired Nick Neidert are both relatively polished prospects who I think can be average big-league regulars, but neither of them can touch what Guzman’s ceiling looks like if he develops a good third pitch.

Trevor Rogers, Miami’s 2017 first-rounder, is a huge 6-foot-6 lefty with a mid-90s fastball, but his breaking ball and strike-throwing are behind Guzman’s right now, and Rogers is already20 years old despite having been a 2017 high-school draftee. I think TJ recovery rates are such that I’d still rather have Garrett if given the choice between all of these guys, but there’s an argument to be made for Guzman as the No. 1 guy in this system. He’ll likely rank somewhere in the back third of our top 100.

The Yankees’ Internal Options at the Keystone

The Yankees can patch the hole created by Castro’s departure with some combination of Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada. Wade failed to do much in a meaninglessly small big-league sample, but his scouting report remains the same as it did a year ago. He’s a plus runner with an all-fields approach to contact and sound ball/strike recognition. He lacks the power to profile as an everyday player anywhere other than shortstop (where Wade’s glove would be average). With superior talents at short in the upper levels of the organization, the Yankees began moving Wade around the diamond during the last few seasons. He began seeing work all over the outfield during the 2016 Arizona Fall League and got reps at six positions in 2017, including first-time action at third base.

Estrada is also a capable defensive shortstop who could be plus at second base. He, too, has doubles power, insufficient for everyday reps at second base, but he grinds out tough at-bats and played well enough in the heavily scouted 2017 Arizona Fall League that he likely would have been a Rule 5 pick had New York not added him to the 40-man roster this offseason. Both project as quality utility guys, with Wade offering more versatility and Estrada offering better defense at short, but they’ll be fine at second base in a pinch until Gleyber Torres is ready.

The Yankees have acquired reigning National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins in exchange for Starlin Castro plus prospects Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. A possible $30 million in cash would also be included in the event Stanton chooses not to opt out of his mega-contract following the 2020 season.

Below are the KATOH projections for the prospects received by Miami. WAR figures account for each player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings. In total, my KATOH system projects these prospects for a combined 5.9 WAR (5.2 by KATOH+) over their first six years in the majors.

*****

Jorge Guzman, RHP (Profile)
KATOH: 3.3 WAR
KATOH+: 3.2 WAR

Acquired from the Astros last winter in the Brian McCann trade, Guzman dominated the New York-Penn League in 2017. He struck out a league-leading 33% of opposing batters this past season and walked just 7%. The end result was a 2.30 ERA across 13 starts. At 21 years old, Guzman wasn’t particularly young for short-season ball — especially for an international signee — but his performance was off the charts. As a result, KATOH has him as a top-150 prospect. Guzman is obviously several levels away from the majors, but there is a lot to like.

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After Giancarlo Stanton rejected deals to the Cardinals and Giants, the Yankees sensed opportunity and have reportedly reached an agreement to acquire the NL MVP. While the Shohei Ohtani decision Friday was the most anticipated news item of the offseason, this is a stunning and fascinating development.

sources: yankees and marlins have a deal for giancarlo stanton

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 9, 2017

Source: Giancarlo Stanton trade agreement is in place between #Yankees and #Marlins, but deal is still pending Stanton’s consent and Yankees approval of physical. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 9, 2017

The stove is piping hot.

Already in possession of the only player to rival and exceed Stanton’s power and frame in Aaron Judge, the Yankees now have each of the game’s Statcast Gods — if Stanton approves the deal. Complete details are not known regarding the return for the Marlins. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, this is something.

#Yankees in play for Stanton, sources tell The Athletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2017

Sources: Yankees making progress on a trade for Giancarlo Stanton. One source cautioned nothing done. Another was confident it’s moving toward that. Either way, momentum for Stanton to Yankees is significant.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2017

#Yankees are indeed making a move to try to land Stanton. Deal coming into focus

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 9, 2017

After Stanton vetoed the Giants and Cardinals, and reportedly listed just four teams he’d accept trades to, the Yankees are turning into opportunists. Pretty clearly, they weren’t interested at the price SF/STL were willing to pay, but with those teams out of the running, it’s pretty easy to imagine Brian Cashman calling his former shortstop with an offer that is totally just helping out a former friend and not at all taking advantage of an executive who might be in over his head.

The Yankees already have an overcrowded outfield, with Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Aaron Judge as the penciled in starters, Jacoby Ellsbury a pretty decent (if overpaid) fourth OF, and Clint Frazier hanging around in case anyone gets hurt. While Ellsbury could be included in the deal as a salary offset, the Marlins were reportedly looking to avoid taking on money in the pre opt-out years, hoping that any financial commitment remaining on their books would be wiped out if Stanton did indeed exercise his option after the 2020 season.

And even if the team added Stanton, Ellsbury still has his usefulness as insurance for Hicks in center, so perhaps Brett Gardner and his easily movable $11M 2018 salary (with a cheap $12.5 million 2019 option) is more likely to be going back to Miami, since the Marlins wouldn’t have a hard time then flipping Gardner elsewhere in a separate move.

If the Yankees acquired Stanton, Frazier would also become somewhat redundant, so perhaps the Yankees would send back a pair of outfielders, consolidating their depth into a better starting left fielder. Of course, the primary downside of this plan would be that — barring a decision to totally punt CF defense — acquiring Stanton makes signing Bryce Harper less likely next year, and many have long speculated that Harper is going to end up in pinstripes. But if the Marlins are legitimately desperate and the Yankees can get Stanton for something in the low $200M range without parting with a ton of young talent, they’d very likely be better off making a deal now rather than trying to win the bidding for Harper next year.

It’s been a nutty 24 hours. It doesn’t sound like things are slowing down any time soon.

Update.

Best of luck, AL East lefties.