Read the methodology behind the ratings here. Remember that the grading scale is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

2012 Organizational Rankings

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago AL
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York Mets
#19 – Los Angeles Dodgers
#18 – Colorado

Miami’s 2011 Ranking: 17th

2012 Outlook: 53 (14th)

The biggest strength for the Marlins this year will likely be their lineup. While the team finished slightly behind the middle of the pack in wOBA at .311 (9th in the NL) last year, the progressions of Logan Morrison and Giancarlo Stanton, along with the expected bounce back from Hanley Ramirez and the acquisition of Jose Reyes should make this one of the better lineups in the league.

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I’m currently in Jupiter, Florida, as a guest both of (a) my 91-year-old grandfather and (a) the Miami Marlins of Florida. Today was Day 1 of 3 of my time here. I’ll be spending time on the backfields, watching some minor-league games and providing mediocre analysis on same.

Today, I watched mostly the High-A game between the Marlins and Cardinals — or, alternately, the Jupiter Hammerheads and Palm Beach Cardinals, of the Sally and Florida State League, respectively.

Regarding Grant Dayton
Left-hander Grant Dayton, 24, pitched for Miami and was generally excellent — although, perhaps, less excellent in consideration of his age. He threw what appeared to be four or five pitches, depending on how all the breaking balls are split up: a fastball at 88-91 mph, a cutter at ca. 85 mph, a slider at around 80 mph, and a change at 82-83 mph. There were a couple of breaking balls in the high 70s, too, so it’s possible that he was throwing a curve. In any case, the shape of the pitch was pretty similar to the slider.

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It is an exciting time for Miami Marlins fans. They have a brand new ballpark, a new star shortstop in Jose Reyes, and two new solid pitchers in Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle. They also have a new name in right field, Giancarlo Stanton, formerly Mike. At the tender age of 22, Stanton was ranked as the 3rd best right fielder in baseball by our own Jack Moore, trailing only Justin Upton and Jose Bautista. Reports are conflicting, but it sounds as if the Marlins are prepared to make a long-term offer to lock up their star slugger. Such a deal would follow in the footsteps of other young outfielders to sign extensions: Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, and the aforementioned Upton. Thus far, these deals have had extremely favourable returns for the franchises, and a Stanton extension would likely be no different.

Thus far in his career, Stanton has been worth 7.3 WAR in only 997 plate appearances, mainly on the strength of a .525 slugging percentage. Numerous scouts rank his power tool as an 80, and at his age, there is still room for improvement. The projection systems recognize this, as his projected wOBA’s for next season range from .372 to .395, with an increase in ISO in all systems except Marcel. Read the rest of this entry »

With disabled list information available going back 10 years, I have decided to examine some league wide and team trends.

League Trends

To begin with, here are the league values for trips, days and average days lost to the DL over the past 10 years.

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I have some concerns over the future of the Marlins organization. Management has given fans a reason to get excited with the recent signings of veterans Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle. What the club has not done, though, is focus on rebuilding from within at the same time. The Marlins organization has some interesting names but the depth is thin because of a lack of focus with both signing players on the international market and with acquiring high-ceiling talent through the amateur draft. The above signing of Reyes will also cost the Marlins a second round draft pick in 2012.

1. Christian Yelich, OF/1B
BORN: Dec. 5, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th

Yelich was the Marlins’ first round pick in 2010 and he started to blossom into a potential star player in ’11 during his first full season in the minors. Just 20 years old, he posted a wRC+ of 146 in 122 games at the low-A level thanks to a full-field approach with the bat. He projects to hit for both average and power. His frame suggests at future strength that could lead to 20-25 home runs once he matures as a hitter and learns to pull the appropriate pitches. Originally a first baseman, Yelich has taken well to the outfield, playing both left and center field. His arm strength is a little below average so left will likely be his permanent home and his above-average speed will allow him to provide excellent range. Yelich could eventually make Logan Morrison, another first-to-left conversion project, expendable. For now, though, he’ll move up to high-A ball but could see double-A by the end of the season.

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Athletes that I would call both “fast” and “huge” are relatively common in football. I will try not to embarrass myself by talking about football at length, but take a guy like the 49ers’ Vernon Davis — a very fast tight end who weighs around 250 pounds. Some baseball players are that heavy and heavier, but they are not known as “fast” players. That is obviously connected to the different skills required for “game speed” in the respective sports.

Like many fans, I find “big-boned” baseball players quite entertaining. For example, Adrian Gonzalez and Pablo Sandoval are both wonderful players. Overall, Adrian Gonzalez is probably superior, objectively speaking. However, subjectively, I would much rather watch Pablo Sandoval, and I would be lying if I said that his “body type” had nothing to do with it.

While special events sometimes happen, the big guys in baseball rarely pull off “speed moves,” especially the main move — the stolen base. Leaving the (obvious and no-so-obvious) reasons for this aside, I thought it would be fun to look at the the top stolen base seasons by “big-boned” players in baseball history.

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Spring Training is dangerously close these days, and once it starts, so do the position battles. All around Florida and Arizona you’ll see players fighting to win that last bullpen spot, platoon outfield job, rotation spot, etc. Many players who lose these battles will simply report back to Triple-A and work to get back to the show at some point, but others don’t have that option. They’re quite literally out of options.

To make a long story short, an out of options player is someone who has used up all three of their minor league options, meaning they were sent to the minors for at least 20 days in three different seasons. Once a player is out of options, he can’t be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers. As you probably know, a few of these guys will end up being traded over the next six weeks as their club looks to get some kind of return rather than lose them on the waiver wire for nothing.

MLB Trade Rumors put together a comprehensive list of this year’s out of options players, so let’s sort through the names to find some players that are useful, but just not to their current teams.

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For a catcher, the “tools of ignorance” is an endearing term used to sum up the challenges of the position in a neat and tidy phrase. Over the past three seasons, scouting well over 100 games and a few hundred prospects has led me to develop my own “tools of magnificence” as a handful of players have displayed 80-grade tools which are now seared into my scouting conscious.

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Just three days after Yoenis Cespedes toured their new ballpark, the Miami Marlins have reportedly offered the 26-year-old outfielder a contract.

The contract is allegedly for six years, but the financial details are shaky at this time. While the initial report suggested the deal was worth $40 million, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald is hearing the Marlins offered less money. Unless the Marlins have offered significantly less than $40 million, Cespedes’ contract will likely break the record for Cuban-born players. That slot is currently held by Aroldis Chapman, who received a six year, $30.25 million contract from the Cincinnati Reds.

Signing Cespedes would be a huge gain for the Marlins, who currently lack a true center fielder on their roster. The Chris Coghlan experiment was a disaster last season, causing the Marlins to turn to Emilio Bonifacio. While Bonifacio experienced a breakout season, much of his success was a result for a .372 BABIP, which was the second highest BABIP among qualified hitters last season. His defense has been acceptable in the outfield over his career, but he posted a -2.6 UZR in center this past season.

We don’t know what kind of defense Cespedes will play in center, but we have already taken our best guess at what his bat will produce. Jack Moore noted that Cespedes was probably less of a risk than other Cuban-born players, and Clay Davenport projected Cespedes’ stats based on his performance in the Cuban league. Based on Davenport’s research, Cespedes should hit .260/.325/.457 in the majors. Those numbers would put him in line with the average center fielder, who hit .261/.325/.406 this past season. What sets Cespedes apart from the typical center fielder is his power potential. Few center fielders are capable of hitting 20+ home runs each season. Even if Cespedes is a slightly below-average defender, his bat should make him the best option to play center on the Marlins.

While Cespedes is likely the Marlins’ best option in center, it’s unclear how soon he’ll be able to make an impact in the majors. At 26, he’s much older than the typical prospect, but he’ll likely need time to adjust in the minors before he’s ready to take on major league pitchers. Cespedes will already have to adjust to numerous lifestyle changes once he begins his professional career in the US, which, I would imagine, can be very stressful. If the Marlins promote Cespedes before he’s ready and he struggles, that’s one more thing Cespedes will have to worry about.

Still, Cespedes’ potential makes him an intriguing candidate for most major league teams. The Marlins, in particular, are in need of a center fielder, and Cespedes looks like an ideal fit for them. Even if he’s not with the team initially, he’ll definitely make an impact at some point this season. The race for the NL crown should be tight this season, and signing Cespedes strengthens the Marlins’ chances to contend for the division.

It is a simple question.

What is sabermetrics?

Not the history of it, but what is it, right now? What is, in our nerdiest of lingoes, its derivative? Where is it pointing? What does it do?

Last Tuesday I created no little stir when I listed the 2012 saber teams, delineating them according to their perceived embrace of modern sabermetrics.

Today, I recognize I needed to take a step back and first define sabermetrics, because it became obvious quickly I did not have the same definition at heart as some of the readers and protesters who gathered outside my apartment.

I believe, and this is my belief — as researcher and a linguist — that sabermetrics is not statistics. The term itself has come to — or needs to — describe more than just on-base percentage, weighted runs created plus, fielding independent pitching, and wins above replacement.

Sabermetrics is the advanced study of baseball, not the burying of one’s head in numbers.
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