Monday’s part one piece discussing the trade value of Mets third baseman David Wright using a rumored deal that he could head to Anaheim for Peter Bourjos-plus was met with mixed reactions as New York fans rushed to defend their white knight in the face of statistical analysis. In all, it proved to be an excellent conversation starter and segue into part two looking at the Mets continued need for young arms, even with the duo of Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler, as well as the financial freedom dealing Wright allows.

Few organizations boast two top pitching prospects the likes of former first round picks Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. As pitchers like Johan Santana and maybe Mike Pelfrey potentially move onto new organizations in the near future, it’s comforting to know the next wave isn’t far behind. Add Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia to the mix and the downside potential of the four young pitchers appears to be two starters and two back of the pen arms at a minimum.

Zack Wheeler Video After The Jump

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On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:

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Angel Pagan is a man of extremes. If his name isn’t the perfect indication of that, his stats are. According to Jon Heyman, the New York Mets plan to offer Pagan a contract before the Decemeber 12 arbitration deadline. While this decision would have been a no-brainer as recently as a year ago, the 30-year-old outfielder is coming off a down year — where he failed to replicate the success of his 2010 breakout. With the Mets hoping to get younger — and cheaper — is keeping Pagan around the best decision?
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After finishing the season 77-85 and watching their superstar, Jose Reyes, about to test the free agent market, the New York Mets appear poised to embark on a true rebuilding effort. Recent reports out of New York suggest that Sandy Alderson believes 2014 or 2015 is a more realistic window for contention for his club, which leaves third baseman David Wright’s future with the organization in a state of flux.

He is owed $15M next season and has a club option of $16M ($1M buyout) remaining on his contract. That makes him incredibly expensive for a team that does not have aspirations of legitimate contention during that time frame. His wOBA has also decreased every season since 2007 and only hit .254/.345/.427, which has caused some folks to start asking if Wright is nearing the tipping point of his career.

For a team wishing to amass young talent to bolster a farm system that is not bursting at the seams with talent — especially given the unfortunate injury to Jenrry Mejia — listening on offers for David Wright could be wise. If they can get Wright to waive his opt-out clause and give an acquiring team two years of team control, this offseason could be the best chance for the Mets to garner impact talent in return for the third baseman, and though the organization could retain Wright to appease fickle fans and drive attendance, Alderson and company should evaluate the market for their third baseman this winter.

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As the hot stove league kicks into full gear, Mets third baseman David Wright has taken center stage as reports have the Anaheim Angels a potential trade partner. With centerfielder Peter Bourjos rumored to be on New York’s wish list along with a couple of pitching prospects, Mets fans seem to believe Wright, one of the better players in franchise history, is worth significantly more in return.

On Twitter, I’ve asked a number of followers why with answers ranging from “Wright is the Mets Derek Jeter” to “CITI Field has depressed his value”. With Mets fans screaming “The fence, the fence” much like “Tattoo” screamed “The plane, the plane” on “Fantasy Island”, it seems as if Wright’s return to the seven-to-eight win player he once was is just around the corner. And while I can somewhat buy the park being a factor in Wright’s diminishing returns, outfield fences have little to do with Wright’s -31.1 UZR over the past three seasons.

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Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

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With the season nearing its end (and my team out of the playoffs), I believe it is time to start thinking about the offseason, and more specifically; trades. Trading is something that has been deeply studied in economics and international finance and it may be informative to employ economic theory to baseball. The law of comparative advantage is one such theory, and I am going to try and apply it to baseball in away I haven’t yet seen.

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We had so much fun hanging out in San Francisco that we thought we’d do it again. This time, we’re bringing together Mets and Yankees (and, really, any baseball) fans for one of the last days they can all enjoy baseball — together.

And, sure, we’ll leave some football on one of the televisions, okay.

On Sunday, September 25th, we’ll blow the horn for FanGraphs East and announce happy hour drinks and our own private space for our particular brand of nerdery. Come to Amity Hall any time after one PM eastern, and we’ll be hanging out, talking baseball and enjoying happy hour prices. And there will be a ton of togetherness because really how much can you hate a Mets fan right now. Oh! Also, come downstairs. We’ve got the downstairs bar.

And this is who will be hanging out:

David Appelman, FanGraphs Dark Overlord, so dark
Mike Podhorzer, Serious about (fantasy) baseball, RotoGraphs
Eno Sarris, Fan of Graphs, Fan, Not and Roto
Niv Shah, ottoneu founder and Cleveland Midges fan
Craig Glaser, Bloomberg Sports’ goggled superhero and Mets fan
Amanda Rykoff, espnW contributor, beer lover and Yankees fan
James Kannengeiser, professional curmudgeon and Amazin Avenue writer
Chris McShane, Amazin Avenue backbone, ready to dance
Eric Simon, Amazin Avenue head honcho guy, generally nice dude
Mike Axisa, aka “Mike from RAB, FanGraphs & Trade Rumors,” you know, just Mike
Ben Kabak, River Avenue Blues!
Joe Pawlikowski, music lover, FanGraphs escapee and River Avenue Blueser

So I’m sure there will be some enjoyable conversations. Exciting even.

If you are under 21 years old, you may come to the event, but you’ll have to check in with me. The bar may want you to wear a bracelet to identify you. Annoying, but at least you’ll get to hang out and have burgers and sodas.

In 2009, the Savannah Sand Gnats boasted the best starting staff across the New York Mets organization. With Historic Grayson Stadium within walking distance, I scouted 50 or so of their games that season which included starts by each of their starting pitchers. Among the pitchers i saw was Chris Schwinden, who is scheduled to debut Thursday for the Mets.

On that staff, I nicknamed one pitcher “family night” and took the night off from scouting whenever he pitched. That player was Chris Schwinden, who was considered a non-prospect by not only me, but by contacts I spoke to who watched him in person.

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Jose Reyes will become a free agent this offseason. The Mets’ shortstop looks to make quite a bit of cash, but his recent injuries might limit what teams are willing to pay.

From 2005 to 2008, Reyes averaged 157 games a year. During that time, he averaged 5.2 WAR per season and accumulated the thirteenth-highest combined WAR among all players. His wOBA was .347.

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