…since 1974, when our play-by-play database begins.

On Monday, I posted about the three worst double plays ever according to Win Probability Added (WPA). From 1974 through yesterday’s games, there have been 89072 double plays caused by groundouts (I’m leaving out other sorts of double plays as, from the hitter’s perspective at least, they have more to do with dumb luck). Of those, only 51 have a positive WPA. However, it does happen from time to time, and while the shifts aren’t as dramatic in terms of WPA, the circumstances make them more interesting (at least to me) than the negative WPA occasions.

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The Chicago Cubs general manager, Jim Hendry, has been described by many as a lame duck, but team owner Tom Ricketts may want to get out the hunting rifle now before the situation deteriorates any further.

Hendry took over the Cubs GM position midway through the 2002 season and has never quite assembled the impressive major league team comparable to the impressive farm system he built in the late 1990s. Once touted for assembling a farm system that included future stars like Corey Patterson, Mark Prior, Eric Patterson, Felix Pie, Rich Hill, and (hey, mildly positive ones!) Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano, Hendry is now widely considered a neither great nor terrible GM.

His on-the-field product reflects that dichotomy:

His great times (2008, 2004) have been great; his good times (2003, 2007, 2009) have been okay; and his bad times (2005, 2006, 2010, 2011) have been numerous.

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Whence we last examined yonder batting orders, we came away with several expected observations (Jose Bautista plays baseball like a video game, the Oakland Athletics do not care much for scoring runs, Rick Ankiel and Ian Desmond are not feared hitters, and so forth) as well as a number of curious findings (the Cubs lead-off combo was tops in the majors, the 7th hitters on AL teams were worse than the 9th hitters, NL managers effectively managed the bottoms of their lineups, and such).

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Late last night, news broke that the Mets had traded closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers (along with $5 million to help off-set his contract) for two players to be named later. My immediate reaction to hearing the news was twofold: what a no-brainer trade for the Mets, and not a half-bad for the Brewers either.

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Sometimes the idea comes to you just after the fact. Sometimes it’s so obvious that you can’t believe that it didn’t occur to you before you wrote the article. Almost immediately after pressing Publish on yesterday’s article on the Mariners putrid offense, a few friends and I started talking about the issue. That’s when one friend said it. Couldn’t Carlos Beltran help the Mariners in every conceivable way? Why, yes he could. While it’s unclear what the Mets seek for their right fielder, and it’s equally unclear what the Mariners are willing to spend, the two make a perfect match for a trade. Adding Beltran’s bat and glove could be the difference for the M’s in the AL West.

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In light of Jason Bay’s recent hot streak — he’s hitting .307/.374/.466 over the last month — and two homerun game last night, some fans are beginning to wonder if the pre-Mets version of Jason Bay is finally beginning to show up. After all, Bay had posted above a .385 wOBA in four of the five seasons prior to signing with the Mets; his bat can’t disappear overnight, can it? Considering that Bay has now played 155 games with the Mets, take a look at how his line compares with the average for the rest of his career:

When you look at his numbers in this light, his problem becomes immediately obvious: his power has completely evaporated. He’s still walking at a similar rate (10-11%), striking out at a similar rate (25%), hitting around 90 singles per 600 PA, making contact with a similar number of pitches (75%), and having balls fall in for hits at around his career average rate (.320 BABIP). Literally the only difference between the Old Bay (mmm!) and New Bay is his utter lack of power: his homerun total has plummeted, dragging his batting average down, and he’s also hitting fewer doubles. While Bay used to be good for 30+ homerun per season, the Mets have only gotten a total of 43 extra base hits out of him so far.

This conclusion leads me to two important questions: how much is Citi Field to blame for Bay’s loss of power, and is Bay’s recent surge a sign of good things to come?

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While trade season primarily involves contenders raiding also-rans for useful players, we always hope for that trade that makes us go: what? When the Red Sox traded Manny to the Dodgers in 2008: What? (Which was preceded, of course, but a much louder what when it was reported they traded him to Florida.) We don’t see those very often, because they often involve high-profile players with big contracts, which complicates matters. Chances are we won’t see any jaw-dropping moves this off-season, but that doesn’t preclude us from writing about possibilities.

Today we’ll hold a bad contract swap meet. There aren’t too many huge, horrible contracts out there — that is, contracts that a team would dump if possible and not really miss the player’s production. The entrants, with the year their contracts expire and the money they’re owed beyond 2011 (assuming options declined):

Boston Red Sox: John Lackey (2014, $47.85m)
New York Mets: Jason Bay (2013, $39.26m)
San Francisco Giants: Barry Zito (2013, $46m)
Chicago Cubs: Alfonso Soriano (2014, $57m)

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Nothing is set in stone, but Ike Davis has some torn cartilage and a bone bruise in his ankle that is not healing. He’ll face some more tests and try to run in three weeks, but if he can’t, he’ll be facing season-ending surgery. It’s possible that season-ending surgery will be of the bone-chilling microfracture variety. Let’s pause for a second until the cacophony of “snakebit” and “woe is us” coming from Queens dies down.

There, that’s better. It’s upsetting though, of course. And the one of the main complaints may have some merit. With this story so familiar in recent years, it does seem merited to wonder if the Mets medical staff is doing their jobs correctly. You could take the words “Ike Davis” out of this situation and slide in “Carlos Beltran” and only the joint in question would be any different.

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Just ten days ago, FanGraphs borrowed an idea from ESPN and held a Franchise Player Draft. When all was said and done, I think all of the FanGraphs contributors were ultimately happy with their picks. Though we felt good about our franchise players, many of the readers were quick to point out players they felt were snubbed. Of all the names mentioned, Jose Reyes has become the one player I’m surprised wasn’t selected during the draft. Still only 28, Reyes appears to have put his injuries behind him and he’s well on his way to his best season as a pro. Despite that, we decided he wasn’t worthy of a selection in the Franchise Player Draft. Is Jose Reyes making us look like fools?
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There was some grumbling in Milwaukee when Chris Capuano signed with the New York Mets. After all, the 32-year-old lefty was a popular Brewer who had just survived his second Tommy John surgery in order to put up 66 decent innings as a long man and sixth starter last year. In the end, though, the grumbling died down to a whimper, because there were two unassailable reasons that “Cappy” was allowed to walk. For one, the pitcher himself preferred the chance to make a major league rotation, a chance that the Brewers didn’t necessarily offer.

They didn’t offer that chance because they already had another, younger, Chris Capuano on hand: Chris Narveson.

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