Archive for Teams

Major League Baseball handed down suspensions as a result of the Dodgers-Diamondbacks brawl on Tuesday night, and Ian Kennedy got the headline penalty, as he’ll be unable to pitch for 10 days after he decides to strategically drop his appeal. And, looking at the Diamondbacks schedule, that will almost certainly happen on Monday, and Kennedy will become the latest starting pitcher to be suspended by MLB without actually being punished in any real way.

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There exists, widely, a mistaken understanding of the relationship between effort and quality. It’s true that something that takes considerable effort is more likely to be good, but the former doesn’t necessarily beget the latter. Something that’s bad is bad, regardless of how much was put into it, and in this way the ends tend to be of greater significance than the means. But there is, though, a strong relationship between effort and remarkability. Something that takes a lot of work is of interest on those grounds alone, no matter the product or result.

Wednesday’s was a fairly ordinary game between the Indians and Rangers in Texas. It was 5-1 Indians going into the bottom of the ninth, and it was 5-2 Indians at the end. Vinnie Pestano worked the ninth, and he had reason to sweat, given that he was pitching in Texas in June. But Pestano also had a particular plate appearance against Jeff Baker that lasted not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, but 15 pitches. That was the first plate appearance of the bottom of the ninth, and it’s also, as of now, the longest plate appearance of the season. Because of how much was put into this showdown, it needs to be discussed. While it might not have been a plate appearance of high quality, it was undeniably remarkable.

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One of my favorite toys here on FanGraphs is the Past Calendar Year split. I like the rolling 365 day line, as it gives us a good view of what a player (or team) has done in the equivalent of the most recent full season they have played. Because the MLB season started earlier this year, the totals don’t work out to exactly 162 games, but it’s close enough to give you the right idea at least.

Just for fun, here are the win-loss records for every team in the American League, using the data from the past calendar year filter.

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Part of this is the easy part. The Tigers are good and the Astros are bad, and that much you knew. That much you’ve known for weeks, or months, or years I guess depending on things. The Tigers lost on Wednesday, but they lost because of Jose Valverde and James Shields, and they still have a comfortable lead in the American League Central. I’m writing this before there’s a Wednesday Astros result, but by the time you read this they probably will have lost, because they’re bad. Maybe I’m going to come away looking like an idiot, but win or lose, they’ll be in the AL West basement. The Astros were supposed to be terrible, and they’re ahead only of the Marlins, who’ve recently received a healthy new Giancarlo Stanton.

Now, the Tigers don’t have the best record in baseball. That belongs to the Cardinals, and the Tigers are a good distance behind. They’re also behind a bunch of other teams, and tied with the Orioles. Meanwhile, while the Astros have been dreadful, they do have a better record than those Marlins, and they’re theoretically within striking distance of the Cubs. Neither of these teams looks to be extreme. But by one important metric, the Tigers are on pace to be one of the best teams in a very long time. And the Astros are threatening to be one of the worst.

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Before R.A. Dickey struck out five Giants over 8.1 innings of scoreless ball in early June, we sat down for a brief second to talk about his health, his knuckler, his new situation, and what he’s learned this year.

Eno Sarris: The last time we talked a while back, you were having a great season that had something to do with your fast knuckleball. You were throwing those more than ever, and hitting top speeds with them. I took a look recently and it looks like you’re throwing them a little slower this year. Does that have something to do with your back?

R.A. Dickey: I would think so. I started the year not healthy and that’s contributed to me not being able to step on the gas a little bit more. Recently, over the last week and a half, I’ve felt better than I have all year.

Sarris: What exactly is wrong?

Dickey: I’ve had an upper back issue, whenever I extend, it would bite me pretty good. I’ve had to back it down.

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The nation will remember Stephen Strasburg’s major-league debut. Strasburg started his first game on June 8, 2010. That’s not the part people will remember. People will remember the overwhelming dominance, the standing ovations, the 14 strikeouts in seven innings with not one single walk. Gerrit Cole, as Strasburg was, is a top flame-throwing pitching prospect, and Cole just made his own major-league debut in the month of June. Cole’s not as hyped, and his outing didn’t match up to Strasburg’s, in terms of baseball-y sex appeal. But Cole needed just 81 pitches to pitch to 27 batters, and the Giants had only one run on the board when Cole walked off the mound to an ovation of his own. With the lofty expectations placed on top prospects, it’s easy for them to disappoint, but one start in, Gerrit Cole hasn’t disappointed.

I thought we might take a quick look at Cole’s Tuesday night command. Or, at his command over a selection of pitches, like I’ve done with Mariano Rivera and with Carlos Marmol in the past. This isn’t for any diagnostic purposes; this is just for fun, and so we can look at Cole in a way that maybe you didn’t, yesterday, if you were watching. As a prospect, Cole had a few question marks, those being his command and his secondary stuff behind the impressive heater. In Triple-A he threw 63% strikes, pretty much right on the league average. Tuesday, he threw 59 strikes out of 81 pitches, with 19 first-pitch strikes to 27 batters. In that regard it was a surprising outing. In that Cole was effective, it was not.

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I’m going to come right out and say this is another FanGraphs article about batter pace. That is, the average amount of seconds between each pitch thrown to the batter, as determined by PITCHf/x time stamps. I haven’t gone to this well in a while, and I know it doesn’t appeal to everyone, since pace doesn’t mean much when it comes to determining future or present performance. Pace is a peripheral detail, and while I personally occasionally find it fascinating, you’re free to leave now. I’m not misleading you about what’s to follow.

Go to the batter leaderboards and sort them by pace, in descending order. Or don’t, and let me tell you what you’ll find anyway. You’ll find Carlos Pena at No. 1, which isn’t unusual, because Pena has always taken forever. Then you’ll find Troy Tulowitzki, then Kelly Shoppach, then Robinson Cano, then Travis Hafner. These are some pretty different players, and it’s hard to know on the surface what to make of this. But one of these things is unusual. Historically, these have been four slower-than-average hitters. Also, there’s Tulowitzki.

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If you interrogate some of the career-best numbers Adam Lind is putting up this year, you get a complicated answer full of maybes and what abouts: he’s swinging less, making more contact, and has a more even batted ball mix. If you interrogate Adam Lind about the numbers he is putting up this year, you get belly laughs and a more intuitive blend of changes in approach and mechanics. The two don’t necessarily blend perfectly, but they do combine to paint the picture of a slugger coming into his own.

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Luis Valbuena struggles against fastballs, and is Michael-Jackson-bad against all other pitches. In an alternate world in which the Cubs actually cared about the difference between 61 and 65 wins, Luis Valbuena does not get 303 plate appearances last season. But in this world, where the Cubs are suppressing arbitration clocks and dropping bench players into starting roles, Luis Valbuena gets 303 PA. Barring something magical, do not put Luis Valbuena on your fantasy team in 2013.

That was me. I wrote that very review of Cubs third baseman Luis Valbuena for his 2013 FanGraphs+ fantasy profile. At the time, Luis Valbuena had a career .224/.292/.343 slash and a 73 wRC+. On the merit of some impressive defensive output in 2012, he had managed to increase his career WAR to a sterling -0.3 wins through 1109 PA.

Nothing outside of some solid PCL numbers suggested Valbuena could be a solid third baseman in 2013. So far, I’ve been quite wrong.
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Joey Votto didn’t pop up on Monday. Of course he didn’t. It’s not because he didn’t play — he did play, and he batted four times. The first time, he grounded out. He’s human. The second time, he singled on a liner. He’s a talented human. The third time, he flew out. He’s still human. The fourth time, he walked. He’s human, but less so than us. I remember, back in the old days, I was excited to get my hands on line-drive percentage. Batted-ball data! Could you imagine! Since then, I’ve taken a big step back, since LD% has seemed littered with flaws. One flaw is that Joey Votto’s career LD% isn’t 80%. There’s no way that’s correct.

Pick something there’s been one of this year. There have been more Astros sweeps of the Angels this year than there have been Joey Votto infield pop-ups. There have been more Travis Wood grand slams this year than there have been Joey Votto pop-ups. There have been more Jesus Montero triples this year than there have been Joey Votto pop-ups. There have been more home runs ruled non-home runs then reviewed on instant replay and still somehow ruled non-home runs this year than there have been Joey Votto pop-ups. That is, according to the data we have here on FanGraphs. Votto’s historically been unbelievable in his pop-up avoidance, and the pages will tell you his 2013 total is a big empty zero. We’re getting into the middle of June. Vernon Wells has hit 17 pop-ups, and Votto’s still sitting at none.

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