Archive for Teams

It looks like Shane Victorino is going to get three years and $37.5 million from the Boston Red Sox… to be their right fielder. A year after most of his game showed decline, but his defense remained mostly intact, Victorino will be used at a position that is mostly known for bat-first guys. It’s not all that bad, though. For one, the current Red Sox centerfielder is only under contract for one more year. And for two, Victorino’s drop-offs came in ways that might not be so dire.

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The Royals hunt for a quality young starting pitcher is the worst kept secret in baseball. At various times over the last few weeks, the team has been rumored to be considering trading Wil Myers, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Billy Butler in an effort to obtain a hiågh quality arm, preferably one with multiple years of team control and a bright future. Over the last few days, the rumors have shifted from primarily being about Myers to focusing more on Butler, with both the Mariners and Royals identified as potential fits based on their needs for offense and a potential ability to part with young pitching.

Personally, I don’t see much of a fit with Seattle, a team that already has a young right-handed DH in Jesus Montero. The Mariners also don’t really have the kind of Major League ready young arms that Kansas City is looking for in exchange, so while the theory might work, the teams don’t really line up in terms of exchangeable assets.

The Orioles are another story. After non-tendering Mark Reynolds, their best DH options on the roster are currently Wilson Betemit and Steve Pearce – not exactly the kind of firepower that a team with playoff aspirations is looking for. In terms of need at DH and desire to add an impact bat, there probably isn’t a better fit for Butler than Baltimore.

The question is more along the lines of what would go back to Kansas City in return. The Orioles have a significant amount of talented young pitchers, but they don’t have the kind of established Major League performer that the Royals seem to favor. Their best young arms — Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman — are still considered prospects, and their Major League young arms all come with significant question marks. However, given Butler’s actual trade value, perhaps that kind of unestablished big league arm is actually a worthy return.

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When the Angels allowed Dan Haren to walk away for nothing, the immediate speculation was that he’d look to stay on the West Coast. There seemed to be a natural fit with the Padres, and though there were lingering questions regarding Haren’s health, it was clear he was going to get a shot somewhere, and it was clear he was going to be in some sort of demand. Haren seems to have found a home now, on Tuesday, and it isn’t on the West Coast at all — it’s on the opposite of the West Coast, as Haren has an agreement with the Nationals for a year and $13 million.

The immediate implications are twofold. One, the Nationals have an agreement with Dan Haren! Two, with Haren, the Nationals would be removed from the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, almost certainly. Greinke had been linked most often to the Dodgers, Angels, Nationals, and Rangers, and Haren would round out the Nationals’ starting rotation, eliminating the need. Not that the Nationals were considered a favorite for Greinke’s services, but one less suitor is one less suitor, even though the Dodgers are all the suitors a free agent needs.

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Last week, I reported on local TV contracts for all 30 major-league teams. The article’s lede was the Dodgers’ potential $6 billion-to-$7 billion deal with Fox Sports West that was slated to start in 2014 and would run for 25 years. It turns out the Dodgers and Fox did not come to agreement by last Friday’s deadline. Under their existing contract, the Dodgers can make one final demand by this Friday, which Fox can either accept or reject outright. If that doesn’t lead to an agreement, the Dodgers are free to negotiate with others. Time Warner Cable is waiting in the wings.

Whomever the Dodgers ultimately cut a deal with to broadcast the team’s 162 games, expect the deal’s value to stay in the $6 billion-to-$7 billion range. But it may not be a straight-cash deal. As Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported, the Dodgers may end up with a significant ownership interest in Fox Sports West or another broadcast partner, much like the Rangers’, Angels’, Astros’ and Padres’ new deals.

At first glance, a part-equity deal would seem to counter some of the outrage elicited by the all-cash deal, which was estimated to net the Dodgers $240 million to $280 million per year in broadcast-rights fees. But in reality, an all-cash deal is better for the league as a whole, because rights fees paid to the Dodgers (as opposed to profits from an equity stake in a regional sports network) would be included in a team’s “Net Local Revenue” — essentially the bundle of money subject to MLB’s Revenue Sharing Program.

Or would they?

Remember the Dodgers have something of a sweetheart provision when it comes to local TV fees and revenue sharing: As part of the former owner Frank McCourt’s bankruptcy proceedings, the court ruled the Dodgers’ new TV contract would be “valued” at $84 million for purposes of revenue sharing. In other words, if the Dodgers go with a straight-cash deal, only the first $84 million in yearly fees will be subject to revenue sharing; the rest can be pocketed for the team’s own use. The result will be the same if L.A. goes the partial-equity route, as long as the cash payments exceed $84 million per year.

But put aside the Dodgers’ $84 million revenue cap. The revenue-sharing program in the current collective bargaining agreement is designed to capture a significant portion of the additional cash teams will rake in with the new local television deals. In fact, the revenue-sharing language in the current CBA changed fairly dramatically from the CBA that was in place from 2007 through 2011. Remember that the first wave of new TV contracts came in late 2010, when the Rangers and Fox Sports West reached a 20-year, $1.7 billion deal to commence before the 2015 season. It appears that deal was very much on players’ and owners’ minds when the current CBA was negotiated in 2011.

A few weeks ago, I explained the current revenue-sharing program in this post. If you didn’t read that post, do it now, as I won’t repeat that detailed discussion here. Here’s the basic outline:

• Teams share their “Net Local Revenue” — essentially all money made from baseball operations other than money earned through MLB’s Central Fund.

• The Central Fund includes revenue generated by MLB’s national TV contracts, MLB Advanced Media (which operates MLB AtBat, MLB.tv), licensed merchandise and the All-Star Game.

• Under the Base Plan, every team contributes 34% of its Net Local Revenue to the pool, which is then divided equally among all 30 teams.

• The Supplemental Plan adds an additional 14%, putting the total percentage of Net Local Revenue shared at 48.

• Teams do not contribute and receive revenue from the Supplemental Plan by equivalent percentages. Instead, each team pays into the pool or receives from the pool in accordance with its Performance Factor. For example, the Yankees’ Performance Factor in 2012 is 27.7%; the Royals’ is -8.2%. In other words, the wealthiest teams pay the most. The least wealthy teams receive the most.

• Starting in 2013, big market teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, White Sox, Giants, Phillies, Blue Jays, Nationals, Braves, Rangers and Astros) will forfeit an increasing percentage of revenue-sharing proceeds, but those forfeited funds will be funneled back to most of those same teams according to the Performance Factors.

Not exactly the biggest news of the winter meeting, but the Rangers agreed to sign Joakim Soria to a two year contract today, and Danny Knobler suggested that it would be in the $8-$9 million range, and Alden Gonzalez adds that Texas got a team option for a third year in the deal as well. This is a bit of an unorthodox move, as Soria had Tommy John surgery in April, and is unlikely to be ready for the start of the 2013 season. In general, guys coming off surgery have to settle for one year deals, then get bigger contracts once they’ve proven they’re healthy. Ryan Madson, for instance, just signed a one year deal with the Angels, and his timeframe is pretty similar to Soria’s.

However, just because it’s unusual doesn’t make it a bad idea. Often times, these one year deals turn out to be good value buys for the signing team, as the injury issues serve to drive the player’s leverage — and consequently, his price — significantly below what similar healthy players are signing for. Under the previous free agent compensation system, a team could extract one year of value from a good reliever, then collect draft pick compensation after they walked in free agency the next year. Now, though, the qualifying offer drastically reduces the chances of compensation for a relief pitcher, which drives down the team’s incentives to churn the bullpen each winter.

So, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if two year, low AAV deals become a bit more common, as teams try to get a low cost healthy season as the benefit to paying for the cost of rehab. Even if Soria only throws 20-30 innings in 2013, having him potentially available for the postseason and then having him locked in for $4 or $5 million in 2014 could make this a pretty nice bet for Texas, and the overall guarantee is low enough that it won’t be a killer even if Soria never does return to previous form.

And, of course, with a 38-year-old Joe Nathan lined up to closer in 2013, injury or performance issues are always possible, and this gives the Rangers a secondary option for the second half of the season if Nathan needs to be replaced. Given the high cost of closers at the trade deadline, making this kind of deal now to prevent yourself from having to pay those exorbitant rates later could end up saving the team value in the long run, especially if Soria returns to form and can provide value as the team’s closer in 2014 and 2015.

There’s not a whole lot of question right now regarding just who is the top free-agent starting pitcher available. When in doubt, follow the Dodgers. It was thought that re-signing Zack Greinke would be the Angels’ main offseason priority. They’re still interested, but they might be priced out. The Dodgers are in there and flashing their wallets. The Rangers might be just as interested. The Nationals are involved to some kind of extent. Greinke is the available free-agent ace, and everybody else is, at best, second-tier.

For the teams looking for quality starting pitching that miss out on Greinke, there are alternatives, who could be signed or traded for. Ryan Dempster is a free agent, and a good deal older than Greinke. Kyle Lohse is a free agent and he’s going to cash in to some degree. Among trade candidates, R.A. Dickey could be tremendously valuable, James Shields could be similarly valuable, and Jeremy Hellickson might or might not be extremely valuable, depending on your interpretation of his statistics. But there’s another quality free agent, the same age as Greinke, who could be of nearly as much value for a considerably lesser cost.

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Angel Pagan just signed with the San Francisco Giants. $40 million for four years might seem like a slight overpay in terms of years, but this is obviously a team trying to win now, and they did just make a little extra coin that they can spend in order to stay competitive.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Similar justifications were probably made when Aubrey Huff helped power the Giants to their first World Series title and was subsequently signed to an ill-fated deal. This is Angel Pagan, though. Not Aubrey Huff.

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The Mets have been talking to R.A. Dickey about a contract extension for months, and since he’s still unsigned, there are clearly some issues that aren’t so easy to resolve between the two sides. So, they’re weighing all of their options, and the primary option for a team with a player who is a year from free agency is to trade him. Given that Zack Greinke is the lone free agent hurler who is viewed as a clear impact starter, the Mets could theoretically take advantage of a seller’s market, and shopping Dickey as a fall-back plan for the teams who don’t get Greinke might end up bringing back real talent.

Word from Jayson Stark today is that the Mets have “gotten serious” about trading Dickey and he could potentially be moved during the meetings here in Nashville. That would probably require Greinke to sign here as well, as maximizing Dickey’s return would likely involve pulling a Greinke runner-up into the bidding. Assuming Greinke does choose between a large paycheck in LA or a large paycheck in Texas, what could the Mets reasonably ask for in return for one year of a 38-year-old knuckleball specialist?

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Way back in Ye Olden Days of 2008, Geovany Soto was the Cubs’ Rookie of the Year catcher. He hit for average, power, drew walks, and played acceptable defense behind the plate. He was just 25 years old. The best seemed to be to come.

Four years later, Soto got non-tendered by the Rangers, then reportedly turned around and signed a one-year, $3 million contract with them. For a contending team like Texas with a sizable payroll budget and in need of a catcher, the issue is not so much about the money. Rather, given the dearth of other catching options either internally (especially with Mike Napoli reportedly signing with Boston) or externally, the issue is whether Soto is good enough to be a regular starter for the Rangers in 2013.

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In October, Alex Rodriguez was terrible when he did play, and he didn’t play all that much because of said terribleness. As Jeff noted during the ALCS, Rodriguez looked noticeably diminished after he came off the disabled list, especially against right-handers, and the contact issues suggested that he very well might not be 100% healthy.

Well, no more need to speculate – Joel Sherman reported this morning that A-Rod had surgery on his left hip and will be sidelined for 3-6 months. The end of that timeline would put him on track to return to the field in June, and given the lingering nature of hip problems, it’s probably not in the Yankees best interests to assume that he’s going to be back to 100% any time in the near future. In reality, Rodriguez is now a 37-year-old who has had surgery on both hips, and his body seems to be entering the stage where he’s unlikely to be able to be a full-time player going forward.

That leaves Brian Cashman with a role player who is due $114 million over the next five years. The only winner in this might be Ryan Howard, who is no longer the owner of the worst contract in baseball.

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