Whether fair or not, being a first round pick carries lofty expectations. In the case of Phillies prospect Larry Greene, my assumption was that the young outfielder would be the best player on the field when seeing him play about a month ago. To my surprise, he wound up being the third best prospect on his own team behind shortstop Roman Quinn and third baseman Mitch Walding whom I’ve written about recently.
Video after the jump
With the trades Tuesday of Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino to the Giants and Dodgers, respectively, two-thirds of the Phillies’ opening-day outfield is now plying its trade in California. For a team that found itself in last place at the deadline, the move wasn’t a particularly surprising one. However, the Phillies aren’t a typical sort of last-place team. They entered the season with the majors’ second-highest payroll, at about $175 million. Moreover, they’ll enter 2013 with a little under $130 million committed to just seven players: Cliff Lee ($25 million), Cole Hamels ($24 million), Roy Halladay ($20 million), Ryan Howard ($20 million), Chase Utley ($15 million), Jonathan Papelbon ($13 million), and Jimmy Rollins ($11 million).
With the absence of Pence and Victorino, manager Charlie Manuel was compelled on Tuesday night to deploy a lineup against the Nationals that included Juan Pierre (in left), John Mayberry (in center), and Laynce Nix (in right) — with Domonic Brown making an appearance as a pinch-hitter. The arrangement worked this once, with the aforementioned triumvirate going 6-for-14 with a walk (in a game started by Stephen Strasburg, no less) and the Phillies beating the East-leading Washingtonians by a score of 8-0 (box). That said, none from Pierre or Mayberry or Nix is likely the answer over the course of a full season — especially if the question is, “Who are some starting outfielders on your World Series-winning club?”
And yet, a World Series-winning club is still what it appears as though the Phillies intend to be in 2013. With the exception of the aforementioned deadline trades of Pence and Victorino, the moves made by general manager Ruben Amaro over the last couple years have been decidedly of the “win now” variety. The retention of Cliff Lee (whose name was invoked in trade rumors) at the deadline and the decision to sign Cole Hamels to a six-year, $144 million contract extension both suggest that Amaro has not abandoned the idea of a playoff-contending Phillies squad in 2013.
Because I’m curious (and because that maybe means at least one other person on the internet is, too), I’d like to consider here, in a very basic way, if the Phillies are in a position to contend for the playoffs in 2013 — and, if they’re not at the moment, how they might put themselves in such a position.
As both managing editor Dave Cameron and large swaths of the internet have noted, outfielder Shane Victorino has been traded by the Phillies to the Dodgers. Despite the fact that he’s probably a superior defender to Matt Kemp, it’s unlikely that Victorino will push the incumbent Kemp to left field. (This is what’s known in legal terms as the Derek Jeter Precedent.)
It stands to reason that, owing to how Bobby Abreu has played a considerable amount of left field for the Dodgers this season, that installing Victorino as the club’s full-time left fielder will make a not-insignificant contribution merely in terms of runs saved over the Dodgers’ final 58 games of the regular season.
“How much of a difference, though?” the curious reader might be wondering. “This much of one,” the irresponsible author is now answering, in the form of the following, mostly haphazard calculations.
Okay, they didn’t actually get him for nothing. To acquire the Phillies center fielder (who will almost certainly play left in LA), the Dodgers gave up 25-year-old reliever Josh Lindblom and enigmatic right-handed pitching prospect Ethan Martin. Reports are that the Dodgers felt comfortable moving Lindblom after acquiring Brandon League from the Mariners last night, but in reality, they should have always been comfortable trading Josh Lindblom for value, because Josh Lindblom is simply not a particularly valuable player.
Over the last two years, Lindblom has thrown 77 innings in the big leagues and posted a 2.91 ERA, so on the surface, he appears to be a good young relief pitcher. In reality, though, there are warning signs everywhere.
Source:Cliff Lee is in play in trade talks today. Rangers obviously the most logical landing spot, with 3B Mike Olt as possible centerpiece.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 30, 2012
With the unnerving (and, it should be noted, unexpected) success of the first edition of Hypothetical Trade Theater, in which the author suggested that Jean Segura and someone resembling (or actually being) right-handed pitching prospect Ariel Pena would likely be part of an Angels’ trade package for then-Brewer Zack Greinke, the same author now presents a sequel — in this case, in response to suggestions that the Texas Rangers might have interest in Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee.
The latest rumor around Shane Victorino comes from Cincinnati, where one Reds insider claims the club turned down a deal that would send Logan Ondrusek to Philadelphia straight up for Victorino. Ondrusek appears a decent long-term bullpen piece, but for a team in the Reds’ position — fighting for the playoffs and with a mediocre 102 wRC+ out of its left fielders — Ondrusek seems like a pittance to pay for Victorino.
But then again, maybe the Reds didn’t want a short-side platoon outfielder. That’s what Victorino has been this season, hitting a tremendous .312/.393/.570 (159 wRC+) against lefties but flailing against right-handers with a .234/.294/.328 (68 wRC+) line. Victorino has presented to buying teams a switch-hitter in name only. If the Reds report is true, his one-dimensional bat is scaring teams away.
I’ve written quite a bit this year on trends in pitcher aging, specifically velocity loss and gain. In the last iteration I focused on the odds of pitchers gaining velocity back after a season where their fastball dropped by at least 1 mph.
In that piece I listed a few pitchers to keep your eye on given that their velocity was down from 2011. In June, I wrote about CC Sabathia for ESPN and noted that the big lefty is likely beginning to “age”, as the odds are quite a bit higher that pitchers over the age of 30 do not gain their velocity back once they’ve lost it.
After thinking about it a while it occurred to me that there is of course the chance that these pitchers will gain their velocity back by the end of the year (as I noted in both pieces). We know that, generally speaking, pitchers gain velocity as the season goes on. Temperatures rise, and so too do fastball velocities. If this is the case I wondered at what point in the season we can say with greater certainty that a pitcher is throwing as hard as he is going to throw. Is there a particular month where a velocity decline is more likely to translate to or predict a full season velocity decline?
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The Phillies had a decision to make — give Cole Hamels a really big contract or trade him for prospects and watch him sign with someone else over the winter. They chose Door #1, giving Hamels a six year, $144 million contract that is the second largest deal for a pitcher in Major League history, coming in only behind the seven year, $161 million deal for CC Sabathia. As with any big contract (especially for a pitcher), this is a pretty big risk, but answering the question of whether it was worth it requires a look at the specifics of both Hamels and the Phillies situation.
There’s no question this is close to the going rate for premium pitchers. At $24 million a year for six years, this puts him in the same AAV tier as Sabathia and Cliff Lee and just a notch above the deal that SF gave Matt Cain a few months ago. Hamels wouldn’t have gotten less than this in free agency, so it’s not an overpay in terms of what the market would have yielded. The price for premium pitching has been firmly established at $22 to $24 million per year for five to seven years.
So, for this to be an overpay, you have to believe that Hamels is not actually a premium pitcher. And, really, the only way to come to that conclusion is if you still judge pitchers by wins and losses.
The scouting highlight of my time in upstate, New York was not 2011 first rounders Taylor Guerrieri (Rays) or Larry Greene (Phillies). Nor was it Red Sox 2012 first round pick Deven Merrero. How about 2011 second round picks Roman Quinn (Phillies) and Williams Jerez (Red Sox)? No. Without a doubt, the most impressive few minutes of my five games scouted in New York was the batting practice display put on by Phillies third base prospect Mitch Walding. So frequent were the balls leaving Falcon Park, home of the Auburn Doubledays, that I was compelled to find the distance down the right field line as I kept having flashbacks of Asheville and its sub-300 foot porch.
Video after the jump
The Philadelphia Phillies are going to make a big play to keep Cole Hamels. The team is planning to offer Hamels a six-year, $130 million extension in the coming days, according to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman. Since 2006, Hamels has been a mainstay in the Phillies rotation, accumulating an ace-like 25.7 WAR for the team over that period. Hamels is set to be a free-agent at the end of the season, which is why the Phillies are making a play to keep him now. If Hamels declines, it’s more than likely he’ll be traded so the Phillies can receive something of value for him before he hits the market. And even though the Phillies reported offer is more than fair, Hamels should reject it.