Judging from the reception to my game preview from last Friday, it seems there are other people out there like me: they like knowing a pitcher’s repertoire and attack plan before watching a game. Since it seemed to be a hit the last time around, I’ll try and provide quick little game previews for each new pitching matchup this postseason.

….That is, I’ll keep it up until everyone gets sick of hearing from me.

So without further ado, let’s take a look at today’s early game: Max Scherzer and Derek Holland.

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In Game 1 of the ALDS, C.J. Wilson wasn’t in top form, and the Rangers started in a 1-0 hole. The Rangers recovered in short order, taking the next three games to advance to the ALCS, but the margins were small, as the offense failed to produce a consistent attack. Now, Wilson has a chance to start the Rangers off on the right foot once more. He may need to be very good, as the Rangers’ hitters are unlikely to break free from their slumber against Justin Verlander.

Jim Leyland’s big gamble paid off, and the Tigers will oppose Wilson with Verlander in Game 1. While Verlander had far from his best start in Game 3, and the umpire seemed determined to help him win, he did have good stuff — he generated 18 swinging strikes, tallying at least four swooshes of air on every one of his offerings save his curveball. That could spell trouble for a Rangers attack that was fairly meek against the Rays. Yes, Adrian Beltre smashed three homers in the decisive Game 4, but he only had one other hit in the series. Four hits must have seemed like a lot to Mitch Moreland, Michael Young and Nelson Cruz, who as a trio combined for four hits. As it was for much of the second half, the offense was carried by Ian Kinsler and Mike Napoli.
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Prior to last night’s decisive ALDS game, Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland remarked of that Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner “had been really pesky” at the plate. I am not sure exactly what Leyland meant, but I have my own idea about what it means to be “pesky” at the plate. Usually, people mean that a “pesky” hitter is hard to strike out. That is part of it for me. However, when I think of Brett Gardner plate appearances, I think of not only a lot of contact, but a lot of pitches seen in general, both because of contact and simply taking pitches. So, let us say farewell to the Yankees by looking at the five most Gardner-esque, “pesky” hitters of 2011. To the junk stat laboratory!

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With an FIP a full half-run less than the South Atlantic League leader, to suggest that Rangers pitching prospect Cody Buckel excelled would be an understatement. Statistically, the young right-hander, whose pitching mechanics aim to emulate Giants Tim Lincecum, successfully utilized a four-pitch mix to overwhelm both younger and older hitters at the level. So why then was he only considered the 19th best prospect in the league ranking behind Colorado Rockies Tyler Matzek, who combined for a 6.22 ERA in 2011? The answer lies in Buckel’s upside projection, which falls below that of his higher velocity, bigger-bodied counterparts.

Video after the jump

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Join me! The rabbit hole is suspiciously warm.

The Tampa Bay Rays are now down 1-2 in the ALDS, placing their hopes for a Rangers rout on the shoulders of rookie right-hander Jeremy Hellickson. The so-called Hellboy takes the mound at 2:07 p.m. ET today, facing Rangers lefty Matt Harrison.

The match-up, to say the least, favors the Rangers. Not only does Harrison have the edge in FIP (3.52), xFIP (3.85), and SIERA (3.94), he has the added bonus of a seemingly normal BABIP (.290) and LOB% (72.3%). Hellickson has only an ERA edge (2.95); the rest suggests impending doom: 4.44 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, .223 BABIP, and 82.0% LOB%.

Well, Hellickson does have at least one major thing going for him: A serious and unusual strikeout regression.
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Throughout the Rangers-Rays series so far, one of the overriding narratives has been, “This Rangers offense is so good, can the Rays possibly contain them?” And unlike other points the media loves to harp on, this is a fair question; the Rangers do have one of the most potent offenses in the majors (.348 wOBA, 2nd best overall), and their lineup is chock full of dangerous power hitters (210 home runs, 2nd most in majors). Meanwhile, the Rays have a strong pitching staff in James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and Matt Moore, so the drama creates itself; power versus power, which side will win?

But if you’re a loyal FanGraphs reader, you’re probably already asking yourself a very different question: “Wait, what about Park Factors?” It’s one thing to look at a team’s raw offensive numbers and declare that they have a dominant lineup, but you always have to consider the context. The Ballpark in Arlington is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors, so maybe their offense is overrated? But no, even when you adjust for those effects, the Rangers still have an offense 13% better than league average — tied with the Yankees for 2nd best in the majors.

Yet, now that the action is moving from Arlington to St. Petersburg, everyone harping on the Rangers’ offense is in for a surprise. For the next two games of this series, these two teams are going to be much more evenly matched on offense than most people assume. The reason why? Tropicana Field.

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Baseball is a game of mysteries: Who invented the game? Why do scouts use a scale ranging from 20 to 80? And what were the Marlins thinking when they chose their new team logo?

Yet these mysteries are but mere blips on the proverbial radar when compared to what happened tonight. It was the first game of the ALDS — and following an Elvis Andrus walk — Josh Hamilton dug in with no outs, down by eight runs in the bottom of the sixth inning. And then did the unthinkable.

Josh Hamilton bunted.

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The list of umpires scheduled for the LDS has been released. As much as they should not be a factor in the games, several of their decisions will ultimately be scrutinized this postseason. The following is a look at which umpire strike zones are most likely to get notice and affect the game.

I am not going to get into any discussion on if the umpires and their strike zones are good or bad. They are their own individuals. The more I look into the subject, the differences can be some of the 2% that can be exploited to gain an advantage over other teams.

At the beginning of the season, I rated which of the umpires are the most hitter and pitcher friendly. Here is a look at each umpire, their rating and what series and game, for now, they are to umpire. I know there are only five games, but I included the last umpire in case there are any changes. The umpires at the top of the list are more hitter friendly and those at the bottom are more pitcher friendly:

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For being an exact rematch of last year’s ALDS, the roles of the Rays and Rangers have been reversed since last season. Last year, the Rays were the favorites; they were loaded with talent in Matt Garza, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena, and a pre-Boston Carl Crawford. They won 96 games and beat out the Yankees for the AL East title, while the Rangers won 90 games and reached the postseason for the first time in over a decade. The Rangers were underdogs, but underdogs with a dominant starting rotation and a gutsy, scrappy* attitude.

*Yeah, I just used scrappy in FanGraphs post. I should probably hand in my resignation now.

This season, though, it’s the Rangers who enter the postseason having won 96 games, and they are undoubtedly the favorites in this series. While Vegas has the two teams as a close matchup — odds for the pennant: Rays 4/1; Rangers 13/4 — the Rangers simply have the better team here. They have one of the best offenses in the majors (.348 wOBA), and they are very balanced team, good against both righties and lefties. Their starting pitching staff shouldn’t be overlooked, as they have three starters with sub-4 ERAs and FIPs in C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison. They aren’t going to be an easy team to walk through.

Meanwhile, the Rays have a mediocre offense (.320 wOBA) and have been carried into the postseason primarily on the wings of their pitching (3.58 ERA, 4.03 FIP) and defense (2nd in majors in UZR, 1st in DRS). They got hot down the stretch, going 17-10 in September and beating up on the Yankees and Red Sox, so this year they’re the club with the “intangibles” going for them.

But let’s dig in a bit deeper and take a look at some of the potential key matchups on either side. Both clubs have hidden strengths that could prove to be the deciding factor in the series.

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Episode Eighty-Six
In which baseball sells itself.

Headlines
The Events of September 28th — Recapitulated!
The Saddest Story Ever — Told Briefly!
The 2011 Playoffs — Super-Previewed!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 45 min. play time.)

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