Maybe there’s is a better way to predict how well a hitter is doing? Rather than glancing at his OBP and SLG and OPS or his wOBA and wRC+ and then mentally calibrating that number according to an inflated or deflated BABIP, maybe we can find a simple means of combining the key elements into a single formula.

Well, I believe I have stumbled onto just such a formula.

Th’other day, when I was trying to solve the mystery of the Tampa Bay Rays and their utterly broken run expectancy chart, I began ruminating about the relationship between walks, strikeouts, and an ability to create runs. You see, the Rays tend towards true outcomes: lotsa walks, lotsa strikeouts. So, for some strange reason — be it bad luck or bad hitter-type chemistry — the Rays seem to have an inability of reaching a standard run expectancy with the bases loaded.

Anyway, I began to investigate this trifle and produced an interesting comparison:

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Today, the Rangers traded Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter to the Orioles for setup man Koji Uehara. Some might balk at the asking price, but it’s become obvious that neither Hunter nor Davis were going to figure in to the Rangers’ future plans. And Uehara might end up at the cheapest way for the Rangers to upgrade their late-inning relief.

It’s true that there are a lot of years of control left on the young players that the Orioles acquired. Both can be free agents in 2016 at the earliest. But it’s also true that both players had muted upside.

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The Rangers are rolling on all cylinders these days. Their +92 run differential is fourth-best in the Majors, and they are 11 games over .500 since the start of June. As Carson noted the other day, they have received good production out of center field, and really that translates to every other spot in the lineup as well. And while the Rangers’ bullpen has pitched better during the past two months, it still remains the team weakness… perhaps the team’s only weakness. As such the Rangers have been linked to both Heath Bell and Mike Adams as potential bullpen reinforcements, though it is widely thought that Bell is more likely to be dealt, so let’s focus on him. Would acquiring Bell be the proverbial final piece of the puzzle for the Rangers?

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A few nights ago I flipped over to a Ranger-Blue Jays game just in time to catch a plate appearance by Rangers’ second baseman Ian Kinsler. Toronto’s announcers were talking about how Kinsler, despite doing well this season as the Rangers leadoff hitter, is not ideal for the spot. Whenever the phrase “ideal leadoff man” comes up, you know that Rickey Henderson’s name is about to come up, and indeed, it did. So even while complimenting Kinsler’s good season, the announcers somehow thought he wasn’t quite right for the leadoff job despite being a good baserunner and getting on base at a good clip. What are they talking about? What exactly is the “ideal leadoff hitter” if a guy who gets on base and runs well isn’t?

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Both the New York Post’s Joel Sherman and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweeted yesterday that they believe the Texas Rangers are the most — or, at least, one of the most — active teams in pursuit of the excellent, and likely available, Carlos Beltran.

In a vacuum, acquiring Beltran makes total sense. Despite concerns about his knee (not something to be overlooked) and the possible limits it’s placed on his defensive range (which appears to have declined from “excellent in center” to merely “good enough for right”), Beltran remains an offensive force. In fact, so far as the numbers indicate, Beltran is having the best offensive season of his career, his line of .289/.389/.514 (.309 BABIP) good for a 151 wRC+ in this season’s deflated run environment.

In the context of the Rangers, however, the pursuit of Beltran is a bit puzzling. If we assume that the optimal use of deadline trading is to improve a team’s present talent as much as possible (something that’s accomplished most easily by addressing weaknesses) then the Rangers stand little to gain by adding Beltran — or any outfield-type, really. Last year’s MVP Josh Hamilton is healthy again and manning left field. After dealing with his own injuries, Nelson Cruz is back, too, and ensconced in right. Michael Young, meanwhile, has basically locked down the everyday DH role, hitting .333/.369/.494 (.361 BABIP) with a 135 wRC+.

This, of course, leaves center field.

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Whence we last examined yonder batting orders, we came away with several expected observations (Jose Bautista plays baseball like a video game, the Oakland Athletics do not care much for scoring runs, Rick Ankiel and Ian Desmond are not feared hitters, and so forth) as well as a number of curious findings (the Cubs lead-off combo was tops in the majors, the 7th hitters on AL teams were worse than the 9th hitters, NL managers effectively managed the bottoms of their lineups, and such).

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Realistically, for Brandon Webb, Wednesday’s news was probably less a matter of “if” and more a matter of “when,” as it appears Brandon Webb’s recurring shoulder injury will shut him down for the remainder of the season. This just adds to his depressing injury history, going back a mere two years:

May 14, 2011 Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right shoulder surgery).

March 31, 2011 Right shoulder surgery, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 22).

November 2, 2010 Missed all 162 games (right shoulder surgery).

April 17, 2010 Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right shoulder surgery).

April 4, 2010 Right shoulder surgery, early September.

April 12, 2009 Right shoulder injury, early September.

April 8, 2009 Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.

Webb’s swift collapse under the burden of injury serves as yet another reminder of the fragility of the athlete, and even more striking, the fragility of the pitcher. Webb was among the pitching elite ever since winning the 2006 Cy Young award, a season in which he posted a 7.0 WAR thanks to a 3.18 FIP and a similarly excellent 3.10 ERA. After posting two similarly excellent seasons in 2007 and 2008, it looked like the Diamondbacks had themselves one of the games’ most consistently great pitchers. That is, until opening day of the 2009 season, where Webb only managed four innings and would throw his last pitch in the Major Leagues to date.

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Josh Hamilton thinks his eye color is the cause of his hitting problems during day games, and at least one optometrist agrees with him. After initially thinking it was just talk, the idea that there could be some scientific explanation that explained his problems made this story more interesting. So, the next natural step was to look at some data.

On Friday, we asked you guys to come up with blue-eyed players, and you responded with enthusiasm. Over the weekend, I went through that thread and looked at all the nominated players, compiling a list of guys who might make for a useful comparison to Hamilton. I left out players who played a significant part of their career in a dome, for instance, and left out guys who were noted sunglass/tinted contact lens wearers, as we wanted to measure the performance of light eyes in day light with as few compounding factors as possible. Overall, I came up with 25 players who fit the criteria. It doesn’t sound like a huge number, but those guys combined for over 47,000 day-time plate appearances and over 100,000 night time plate appearances in their careers, so sample size shouldn’t be a problem.

The results? Well, you probably won’t be too surprised.

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The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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Padres outfielder Will Venable was sent to the minor leagues today. Amazingly for a 28-year old with a .224/.293/.291 line and a neutral-looking .300 BABIP, it’s actually worth wondering if he deserved this fate. His case may help us understand something about focus and areas of improvement — because Will Venable has actually made some improvements this year, but perhaps not in the right areas.

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