Obviously it is the horse talking.
News broke Monday night that the Texas Rangers signed once-great, maybe even possibly still-great, reliever Joe Nathan to a 2-year contract for $7M a year, plus a $9M option.
FUN FACT: Over the last two years, Joe Nathan and I have the exact same WAR — we both have been worth precisely 0.0 wins! Which makes us ask: Why did the Rangers choose Nathan?
Jeremy Hellickson is the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year. Despite the fact that Hellickson finished with just 1.4 WAR — good for eighth among AL rookie pitchers — he managed to beat out some other very qualified candidates for the award. The BBWAA has come under fire for some of their selections in the past, and Hellickson’s selection might spark the same debate once again. That said, Hellickson did have a fine season, and there were obvious reasons to select him as the most valuable rookie in the league. Whether or not you agree with the methodology, this is how Hellickson managed to take home the award.
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On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:
The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?
Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:
Yesterday afternoon, Jayson Stark considered the question, “Is the MLB’s competitive balance a joke?” His answer was a rather blunt no:
MLB’s competitive balance is NOT a joke.
It beats the NFL.
It beats the league formerly known as the NBA.
And … I can prove it.
Stark’s method of proving it — plucking facts from the recent playoff series and comparing them generally to the NFL and other major leagues — was less than rigorous. In general, I agreed with his assertion: Parity in the MLB exists naturally far more than any other sports league.
HOWEVER, if my foot has less gangrene than your foot, does that mean I don’t need a doctor? No. I probably still need a doctor, and I probably need to stop playing barefoot tag on Rusty Nails Pier.
Relative success does not necessitate absolute success. And frankly, I feel the “parity” in the MLB indeed has a gangrene of sorts, a disease that is causing only specific segments of the league to rot while the rest hum along uncaring.
Of course, it is one thing to suspect something and demand more research, but it is another to pull the sabermetrician stocking over your head and answer that suspicion with a Falcon Punch of data.
Let’s do just that.
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It’s no secret that the Tampa Bay Rays need to trade a starting pitcher this offseason. They have seven starting pitchers that could potentially fit in their 2012 rotation: David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Alex Cobb, and top prospect Matt Moore. Trading one of these players would allow the Rays to fill in other holes on their roster — first base and catcher are concerns — while freeing up room for Matt Moore to slide in. The only question is, who do the Rays trade away?
The Rays could approach things from two directions. They could trade away one of the trio of Niemann, Davis, or Cobb, as those three are most expendable and the one-two-three punch of Price, Shields, and Moore would be quite sexy. Or the Rays could do what most people assume they will do: trade away James Shields. Shields is one of the most valuable trade chips in baseball, so he would return a large package while also freeing up $7 million in payroll space.
All these rumors glance over two pitchers: Jeremy Hellickson and David Price. Helly isn’t likely to be moved due to his high ceiling and team-controlled salary, but David Price presents an interesting conundrum. If the Rays are considering trading Shields, Price should also be on the market…and the Rays might be better off trading him.
Yesterday, Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein announced the Chicago Cubs and manager Mike Quade have parted ways. Kudos to Theo Epstein for not doing what we all expected him to: Fire Quade immediately.
It appears Epstein — like he has approached most everything in his young Cubs reign — decided to withhold judgement until he had fully investigated the matter himself. Like Joe Maddon is wont to say, “Tell me what you think, not what you heard.”
Quade’s managerial time with the Cubs was both short and possibly undeserved. Taking the helm when Lou Piniella suddenly retired in 2010, Quade inherited a team that was predisposed towards failure. But, despite that, the team went 24-13 to close out the season. That was enough proof for Jim Hendry to vault Quade not only into the manager discussion, but the manager’s chair:
If the Cubs didn’t get hot in late 2010, does Mike Quade
even get an interview for manager? Probably not.
One of the best pitchers available this off-season may have just been pulled off the market. With Matt Moore expected to grab a spot in the rotation, many expected James Shields to be available this off-season. That may no longer be the case, however, as CBS Sports’ Danny Knobler reported the Tampa Bay Rays are “dead-set against trading Shields.” While the Rays could choose to trade a starter other than Shields to free up a spot for Moore, Shields would provide the best return. With Moore ready to enter the rotation, are the Rays making a mistake by taking Shields off the market?
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MLB’s Awards Week, with all of its attendant celebrations and arguments, is in full swing. It is also a good time to see just how bad the worst players in the league were. But, as always, the players in the middle get left out. Why not celebrate them, as well? Like my elementary school counselor used say: “everyone is special.” Who were 2011’s most average players?
With a classic World Series — the most exciting in a long time, if not the best-played or best-managed — now over, it is time to hand out individual awards for the 2011 regular season. Sure, some people are anticipating the Cy Young, MVP, and Rookie of the Year announcements, but I bet true baseball fans really pumped for stuff like today’s award, which attempts to measure how much a hitter has contributed to his team’s wins beyond what traditional linear weights indicates. Who is 2011’s King of Little Things?
Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!
In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.
For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:
Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)
The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.
Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.
