Archive for Twins

Twins “All In” for 2012?

The Minnesota Twins have had a brutal 2011 season, to say the least. After winning the American League Central in both 2009 and 2010, they have plummeted into a tie for last with the Royals at the moment. There have been number of factors in the Twins’ collapse this season, from Joe Nathan‘s injury to Tsuyoshi Nishioka‘s injury followed by awful performance to Francisco Liriano’s control problems and more, but none loom larger than the injuries to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Many observers have understandably concluded that it might be time for the Twins to “blow it up.” However, in his Friday column for ESPN Insider (summarized for non-subscribers here), Buster Olney reports that the Twins aren’t necessarily going to hit the reset button. While that does not necessarily back up the “All In” in the title of Olney’s column, that the Twins are even considering doing such a thing is intriguing.

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Shortstop Central

The American League Central is pretty weak. Of all the teams in the division, only Cleveland has a positive run differential as of today, and that’s by only one run. A number of factors probably contribute to the divisional weakness: lower average budgets than some of the coastal divisions, poor decision making, and perhaps some bad luck. The division, however, is surprisingly strong this season in one area: shortstops. Can any other division compare?

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Thome Hits 600

It’s about time Jim Thome finally got the recognition he deserved. Though his chase toward history wasn’t as publicized as Derek Jeter’s, Thome’s relatively quiet run to 600 career home runs seems fitting, in retrospect. Thome — regarded as one of the nicest guys in the game — never seemed to care whether the baseball world was paying attention; he just continued to destroy baseballs. Now that Thome has reached the elite 600 club, thousands of words will be spilled about whether he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. While this milestone generally guaranteed ticket to Cooperstown, the specter of performance enhancing drugs has altered the way a generation of power hitters have been perceived. Based on the stats, Thome deserves to get the call. Unfortunately for him, it might not be on the first ballot.

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Seasons Are Arbitrary Endpoints

We often roll our eyes when announcers cite a player’s stats over the past 15 days. We’ll groan when they tout how many home runs he’s hit since the All-Star break. We’ll throw the remote when a pitcher’s last five starts are mentioned. And yet, when we attempt to analyze a player here, there’s nary a blink if ‘last season’ is mentioned.

Well, guess what. Seasons are also arbitrary endpoints. Yes, they are arbitrary endpoints that allow for easy analysis, and ones that we have all agreed to use. And, if we didn’t use them, statistical analysis would be rendered fantastically difficult. Our record books would look very strange. We’d have to phrase things very carefully.

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Mauer Still Tops Among MLB Catchers

Without looking at the leader boards: who’s the best catcher in baseball? Criteria will vary from person to person, but generally it will involve a heavy weight on recent performance with some level of emphasis on long-term production. At this point, I’m willing to bet that the most common answer is Brian McCann. He stands far ahead of the pack this season with 19.1 wRAA, which bests No. 2 ranked Alex Avila by 7.3 runs. Still, there has to be some weight give to performances in the recent past. If we expand this leader board to include the past two calendar years, McCann does not stand atop. That honor belongs to another household name, Joe Mauer.

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wOBA By Batting Order: 2011 All-Star Break Update

Whence we last examined yonder batting orders, we came away with several expected observations (Jose Bautista plays baseball like a video game, the Oakland Athletics do not care much for scoring runs, Rick Ankiel and Ian Desmond are not feared hitters, and so forth) as well as a number of curious findings (the Cubs lead-off combo was tops in the majors, the 7th hitters on AL teams were worse than the 9th hitters, NL managers effectively managed the bottoms of their lineups, and such).

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The Value of Joe Mauer

No catcher has quite been like Joe Mauer.

Since his first full season in the big leagues, he has easily been the best catcher in baseball. Between 2005 and 2010, he compiled a 32.7 WAR — Victor Martinez finished a distant second with 22.2 WAR. He was a solid defender;  he routinely contended (and won) batting titles; he got on base at ridiculously high rates; and he even contributed stolen bases. Needless to say, he obliterated his catching competition. Mauer’s performances were truly unique.

And now that time might have come to a premature end.

With Mauer getting his first start at first base Thursday, it’s clear that the Minnesota Twins are willing to move the 28-year-old around the diamond to keep him healthy. But this creates an interesting conundrum since Mauer stands to lose a ton of value.
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Replacement Level Players, Playoff Teams

The Milwaukee Brewers’ “all in” offseason, during which they traded a good chunk of young talent (including some of their best prospects like Brett Lawrie and Jake Odorizzi) to dramatically improve their pitching staff, seems to be working. New Brewers Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke are dominating so far (although it hasn’t shown in Greinke’s ERA), and Milwaukee is currently in first place in the National League Central. However, as part of the price for acquiring Greinke from the Royals, the Brewers had to take on shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt. Betancourt has somehow been even worse than the Brewers might have expected (perhaps he’s the victim of a curse), and is at -0.5 WAR so far. Betancourt isn’t hitting, and he has only exacerbated the Brewers problems in the field. The Brewers are in the divisional lead, as mentioned, but some might doubt whether the Brewers can make the playoffs with Betancourt playing like, well, Betancourt. What does history tell us about replacement level players and playoff teams?

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Delmon Young, Power, Discipline, and Age

In sports, age is a tricky thing. Consider Delmon Young‘s 2010 season. After three seasons of mediocrity at the plate and butchery in the field, Young finally put together a productive season for Minnesota. He slugged 21 HRs and posted a career high in OBP, SLG, wOBA, and WAR. And, because he was only 24, the belief was there was nowhere to go but up – or, at the least, to a respectable career similar to Carlos Lee’s.

Yet here we are, watching a 25-year-old Young struggle through one of the worst seasons imaginable for a top-prospect stud left-fielder entering what should be the prime of his career. Through two months and change, Young has only managed two home runs. Much like the rest of his Twins’ team, his batting line is in shambles. To date, his .246 batting average is a career low, as is his .272 on-base percentage, his .316 slugging percentage and his .264 wOBA.

Were Young 28 or 29 years old, none of this would surprise. Pundits across the internet would have declared him as regression candidate number one after posting a career-high isolated power score by 50 points despite moving to Target Field, one of the toughest home run parks in the league. Nothing else was different. The poor plate discipline was still there. The good contact numbers were still there. The high BABIP was still there. The only difference between Delmon Young prior to 2009 and Delmon Young in 2010 was more pop.

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The Curse of J. J. Hardy

Baltimore Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy got his season off to a somewhat predictable start with an oblique injury that kept him out for most of April. However, since coming back, he’s not only played typically good defense, but is having the best offensive season of his career. The contact rate and strike zone judgment have always been there, but his power surge so far this season (.186 ISO from a shortstop) hearken back to his 2007-2008 heyday in Milwaukee. In a tough 2011 run environment, a .287/.383/.473 (129 wRC+) from a good defensive shortstop is quite valuable. While Hardy is likely due for some regression, it’s not hard to imagine that his former employers who traded him away — the Brewers and Twins — looking back with some regrets.

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