When Mark Buehrle takes the mound tonight, against the Tigers, he may or may not throw an indoor sinker to a right-handed hitter, which he recently did for the first time in several years. He might also throw a cut changeup, although it would be by accident rather than by design. Both pitches could come from either side of the rubber, as could the game’s best pickoff move, which Buehrle admits may reasonably be defined as a balk. The crafty lefty may also throw his third career no-hitter, or second perfect game, and he would do so following a simpler approach than you might imagine.

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David Laurila: What is your approach on the mound?

Mark Buerhle: I just get the sign from the catcher and try to make the best pitch I can, to the best location. I’ve never been a guy who studies film or goes over scouting reports. I go with my catcher, and Coop [pitching coach Don Cooper] usually sits down with us and goes over the game plan beforehand. For the most part, I figure that the less that’s on my mind when I’m out there — if I’m not thinking about, and worrying about, what to throw to guys — the better off I’m going to be.

I have four pitches that I have confidence in, and I’ll throw almost all of them in any count, in any situation. I feel that if I make a quality pitch, sometimes it’s going to be a hit, but a lot of times I’m going to get an out. Who’s to say…if I’m thinking of throwing a fastball to a certain guy, and A.J. [Pierzynski] calls for a changeup, why am I right over him? I just take it as, “Hey, whichever pitch you throw down, I’ll try to throw it to the best location, the best spot, and see what happens.”

DL: You’ve worked with A.J. for a long time. What if it’s a catcher you don’t know very well?

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During the summer of 2010, I coined the phrase “The Danks Theory” for a lineup strategy employed by Tampa Bay Rays’ manager Joe Maddon. After having little success against changeup artists like Dallas Braden, Shaun Marcum, and of course, John Danks, Maddon went against the natural platoon split and began starting more like-handed batters against these types of pitchers. The intention behind this method appeared to be neutralizing his opponent’s best weapon, which was thrown more to batters of the opposite hand. The strategy actually dates back to 2008 when Maddon started six naturally right-handed batters and had two switch-hitters bat from the right side against Mike Mussina.

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After collecting a double and a home run last night in a White Sox victory, career backup Brent Lillibridge is sporting a very un-backup-like .307/.387/.662 batting line. Add in some excellent outfield defense and a declining Juan Pierre, and some are clamoring for an every-day job for the slight former middle infielder. Would his performance hold up in such a role?

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Joe Pawl had an excellent piece on Adam Dunn’s continued slump earlier this week, discussing how Dunn’s slump has cost the White Sox a few wins off its record and projection so far this year. His article got me thinking: What exactly is wrong with Dunn this year? Dunn has normally been a model of offensive consistency, hitting at least 38 home runs each of the past seven years — but this year, his power has disappeared, he’s striking out at a higher rate and his balls in play aren’t falling for hits. What gives?

Since it’s so early in the season, it’s easy to say that this is just a slump and Dunn eventually will break out of it. He still only has 200 plate appearances this season — far from the 550 plate appearances needed before power rates stabilize — and as Jesse Wolfersberger talked about a month ago, Dunn had an early season appendectomy that likely threw off his start to the year. The larger sample of success trumps the smaller sample of struggles.

But as the sample gets larger, I can’t help but ask myself: What if that’s not the case? Are there reasons to think this struggle could be more than just a slump?

I think there is, based on two main reasons. But you can decide for yourself.

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The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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It’s not as bad as it was a month ago. Then the White Sox were 10-19 and were scoring just 3.9 runs per game, which put them near the bottom of the league in most respects. Since then they’ve gone 15-12 and have scored 4.22 runs per game. That mark is second in the division only to Detroit, and has the Sox inching back into contention. As you can imagine, the Sox have seen many improvements on offense, going from a .295 wOBA in April to a .329 wOBA in May. That includes an improvement from Adam Dunn, who in creased his wOBA from .271 to .299 in the month of May. But he’s still well below expectations. Considering his spot in the Sox lineup, he really is holding them back.

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When the Chicago White Sox selected Gordon Beckham with the eighth-overall pick in the 2008 draft, the club thought it had nabbed a premium prospect whose polished game was nearly ready for the big leagues. The Georgia product tied for the Division I lead in home runs during his junior season, setting a new school record for career round-trippers while leading the Bulldogs to a runner-up finish in the ’08 College World Series. Beckham then blistered minor-league pitching to the tune of a .322/.375/.519 line, rising from Low-A ball to the South Side by June of 2009 after a little more than 250 plate appearances in the minors.

Beckham gave every indication that he was ready for prime time. He hit the ground running with the White Sox in ’09, putting up a .351 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in 430 PA while earning the Sporting News’ AL Rookie of the Year Award. Just 22 years old at the time, Beckham looked like a franchise cornerstone and a needed first-round success story for an organization that had recently been criticized for taking low-upside players like Lance Broadway and Kyle McCulloch.

Since then, however, Beckham has been sliding backwards. His wOBA dipped to .305 in 2010, and he’s the owner of a sordid .262 wOBA so far this season for a Chicago team whose park-and-league adjusted offense is 12 percent below average. In late April, White Sox hitting coach Greg Walker told the Chicago Sun-Times, “[Beckham]’s swinging at a lot of pitches out of the zone. He’s frustrated. He’s getting himself out a lot.”

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If you want a quick glimpse of some players who probably shouldn’t qualify for the batting title, go to the leader boards, click on Advanced, and then click on wOBA. There you will see a list of players whose wOBAs range from pretty damn bad, Will Venable at .285, to downright putrid, Miguel Tejada at .224. Some of these players figure to rise from their unworthy starts and earn their spots in the lineup. Others will find spots on the bench, or, in some cases, the waiver wire. Such is life in baseball.

Despite their horrible overall production, some of these players have managed to get their scant few hits in a timely manner. A few of the bottom dwellers have racked up a decent number of runs and RBI in their travels. While it’s not at all indicative of their talent, it has helped their team in some small way. I’d like to highlight a couple of these instances today.

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Adam Dunn is one of the most durable, consistent power hitters in baseball. When Chicago inked the 31-year-old to a four year, $56 million deal last offseason, there was no reason to suspect anything less than the .250/.380/.520 that he puts up seemingly every season. However, through the first month of the season, Dunn is hitting .171/.308/.316. Is The Big Donkey going to rebound, or should the White Sox be concerned about their DH?

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Last season, the Chicago White Sox pitching staff led all of baseball in WAR. They did this without employing a starter that most baseball fans would consider an ace. Mark Buehrle may be the longest tenured White Sox pitcher, but his lack of strikeouts hardly make him an ace. While Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson are extremely effective when “on,” they can’t seem to sustain that success over a full season. That leaves John Danks, who has gotten off to a strong start this season. While he may not be a household name just yet, Danks has slowly developed into the White Sox best starter. If his early season results are any indication, he may actually be getting better.
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