Checking in on the Boras Four

They were among the best players on the open market this past winter, four of the top seven on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Blake Snell had just won his second Cy Young Award, while Jordan Montgomery had a huge October, helping the Rangers win the World Series. Cody Bellinger had proven himself healthy and productive for the first time in years, and Matt Chapman won his fourth Gold Glove. The so-called “Boras Four” were supposed to land deals in the nine-figure range, but free agency became a frigid slog. Teams found nits to pick with their past production, and luxury tax concerns limited the interest of the biggest spenders, particularly when sky-high target figures were publicly floated, leading to the understandable conclusion that agent Scott Boras had overplayed his hand. The first of them (Bellinger) didn’t agree to a contract until February 25, after camps had opened, and it took another month for the last one (Montgomery) to sign. None of their seasons has gone quite as planned, either.

When the Diamondbacks visited Boston last week, Montgomery expressed frustration with the way his free agency played out. Because his wife, McKenzie Dirr, began a dermatology residency at a Boston-area hospital last fall, a deal with the Red Sox made sense, particularly given their apparent need for starting pitching. Montgomery and Boras engaged in discussions with the Red Sox, but the 31-year-old lefty did not receive a formal offer before signing his one-year, $25 million contract with the Diamondbacks on March 29.

“I had a Zoom call with [the Red Sox], that’s really all I know. It went good,” Montgomery told the Boston Herald last week. “I don’t know, obviously Boras kind of butchered it, so I’m just trying to move on from the offseason and try to forget it.”

Montgomery’s dissatisfaction wasn’t exactly a secret given that on April 11, old friend Kiley McDaniel reported that he left the Boras Corporation to be represented by Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman. But the timing of his latest comments coincided with the Diamondbacks’ decision to send him to the bullpen, as he’s been lit for a 6.44 ERA in 95 innings, and is doing more harm than good as the team tries to secure a playoff spot.

Snell, who agreed to a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants on March 19, was bothered enough by Montgomery’s comments to publicly defend Boras. “My experience with Scott has been great,” he told The Athletic on Sunday. More:

“I’ve seen how [Montgomery] struggled, but he signed the deal that he ultimately wanted to sign,” Snell said. “He has the choice. I don’t know what other deals he was offered, but I know everything that was offered to me. It’s just sad that he thinks that way when I see Scott as a very honorable man.”

While we’ll never know exactly how negotiations progressed for this bunch, or whether they’d have been better off taking different deals, their respective performances to date are worth a look, as are the decisions that lie ahead, since their contracts have mechanisms that could lead to new addresses next year. Here are the details regarding our crowdsource estimates for their contracts as well as the basics of their actual deals. I’ll tackle their respective cases alphabetically:

Cody Bellinger

Bellinger hit an impressive .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers for the Cubs last year on the heels of two injury-wracked seasons with the Dodgers, but the question was whether he could be counted on to maintain star-level production as he entered his age-28 season. His 2023 performance far outstripped his modest Statcast numbers and was driven by particularly impressive two-strike results in the service of nearly cutting his strikeout rate in half. Given the former MVP’s upside, high-quality defense, and versatility (center field, right field, first base), he ranked third on our free agent list; Boras reportedly sought a contract worth as much as $250 million, and both Ben Clemens and our crowdsource estimates figured he’d at least secure more than half of that. While the Blue Jays were considered the favorites to sign him, and the rumor mill also connected him to the Giants, Mariners, and Yankees, he returned to the Cubs on a deal that includes $27.5 million salaries for 2024 and ’25, with a $2.5 million buyout of a player option after this season, and then another player option for $25 million for ’26, with a $5 million buyout.

Bellinger has bounced around between the aforementioned three positions and designated hitter given the presence of rookies Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong and the oblique strain of Seiya Suzuki. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to avoid the injured list himself, missing 13 days in April and May due to a rib fracture and then another 18 days in July due to a fractured left middle finger. His .269/.328/.423 (108 wRC+) slash line looks less like 2024 and more like his combined numbers from ’22 and ’23 (.258/.311/.457, 109 wRC+). His average exit velocity is down a bit, as are his other Statcast numbers, and he’s exceeded his expected stats by less:

The big difference between Bellinger’s 2023 and ’24 expected numbers — and a key driver of his fall-off — is on his fly balls:

After producing ridiculously strong numbers on his oppo flies in 2023, Bellinger isn’t hitting them as hard this year, reducing their average distance by 14 feet (from 284 to 270), and far fewer are falling in; none have gone over the fence, compared to four last year. While the average launch angle of his opposite-field flies has remained constant at 39 degrees, that of his pulled ones has increased from 35 to 38 degrees, and their average distance has dropped by 27 feet (from 341 to 314), with a reduction in homers from 16 to 10.

As for Bellinger’s strikeouts, his 15.3% rate is nearly identical to last year, but where he hit for a .281 AVG and .313 wOBA with two strikes last year, he’s fallen to .226 and .270, respectively, this year. His 1.5 WAR pales in comparison to last year’s 4.4, and is hardly has an ideal platform to seek a much larger contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays put this winter in hopes of opting out after 2025, as I don’t think a .383 xSLG will convince anyone to invest $150 million.

Matt Chapman

Chapman reportedly declined a $120 million extension with the Blue Jays at some point last year. The team briefly pursued a return, and the Mariners, Cubs, and Giants were also connected to him. While all of the Boras Four fell far short of our crowd’s expectations for contract size, Chapman is the only one whose AAV came in lower as well. He’s making $18 million via a $2 million signing bonus and a $16 million salary, with a $17 million player option and $2 million buyout for ’25, an $18 million player option and $3 million buyout for ’26, and then a $20 million mutual option and $1 million buyout for ’27.

He’s also the only member of this bunch who has avoided the IL, and is the one who is having the best season. His 4.2 WAR ranks sixth in the NL, and is third among all third basemen behind only José Ramírez and Rafael Devers; it’s his highest WAR since 2019. Yet in the grand scheme, it’s hardly been an atypical season for the 31-year-old. His 118 wRC+ matches his career mark, and his .246/.333/.443 line bears a strong resemblance to last year’s .240/.330/.424, but with a bit more power; his 21-homer total so far is already four more than last season. His defense has been typically strong (11 DRS, 4 FRV, 3.1 UZR).

More notable is the arc of his season. Chapman finished 2023 in a funk, with a 54 wRC+ from August 12 onward, and he followed that by producing just an 80 wRC+ in March and April. Statcast’s bat tracking data — which places him among the game’s fastest swingers — arrived just in time to offer him some reassurance that he needed only to continue making minor adjustments instead of overhauling his mechanics or cheating on the fastball; he’s hit for a 129 wRC+ (.253/.353/.461) since. He and the Giants are reportedly engaged in “active dialogue” (Boras’ term) regarding a long-term extension, though it doesn’t appear imminent. My guess is that he opts out, and that a return could depend upon how things unfold with Snell, since signing both to nine-figure deals may be unlikely.

Jordan Montgomery

On August 2, 2022, the Yankees traded Montgomery to the Cardinals in exchange for the injured Harrison Bader because general manager Brian Cashman reportedly didn’t believe he’d be part of the postseason rotation. From the point of the trade through the end of 2023 — after another deadline trade to the Rangers — Montgomery posted the majors’ seventh-lowest ERA among qualified starters (3.17), while ranking 12th in WAR (5.6) and 13th in FIP (3.44). He capped that with a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings during the 2023 postseason, doing the heavy lifting in a pair of series-opening combined shutouts against the Rays (ALWS) and the Astros (ALDS), and chipping in 2.1 innings of emergency relief following Max Scherzer’s injury-related exit in Game 7 of the ALCS. His start against the Diamondbacks in Game 2 of the World Series was nothing special (six innings, four runs in a 9-1 rout), but it didn’t stop the team from winning its first championship.

Montgomery and Boras reportedly set their sights on topping Aaron Nola‘s seven-year, $172 million deal. In addition to the Red Sox, he was pursued to some degree by the Rangers (who were somewhat hamstrung by uncertainty over their television deal), Yankees, and Mets. The Athletic’s Jim Bowoden reported that he received two long-term offers, though neither the teams nor terms were reported. His deal with the Diamondbacks includes a $20 million vesting option for 2025 based on 10 starts, rising to $22.5 million with 18 starts and $25 million with 23 starts.

After signing, Montgomery made two starts for Arizona’s Triple-A Reno affiliate, then debuted for the Diamondbacks on April 19. Three of his first four starts were good, but his ERA has been above 6.00 since June 5. His strikeout rate has fallen from 21.4% to 15.5%, with his walk and homer rates both rising (from 6.2% to 8.3% for the former, and from 0.86 per nine to 1.14 per nine for the latter). With the recent returns of Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly from lengthy injury-related absences, he’s been relegated to the bullpen.

Whether it’s due to the lack of a normal winter/spring buildup or the inflammation in his right knee that sidelined him for three weeks in July, the average velocity of Montgomery’s sinker is down 1.6 mph from last year (from 93.3 mph to 91.7), and the offering is getting hammered (.380 AVG/.569 SLG). His other pitches are slower and less effective as well. Per both of our pitch modeling systems, his stuff and command have both fallen off, with his botOvr falling from 52 to 45 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and his Pitching+ falling from 96 to 95 (on a scale where 100 is average). He’s probably best served by exercising his option in hopes of producing a better springboard to free agency.

Blake Snell

Snell appeared primed to cash in on his second Cy Young and ERA title, but his career-high (and major league-high) 13.2% walk rate, inability to pitch deep into games (he’s never averaged six innings per turn in a season), and concerns about durability (he’s made more than 27 starts in two out of six full seasons, with last year’s 32 his career high) all helped to cool his market. Nonetheless, the Yankees reportedly offered six years and $150 million (topping both Ben’s and our crowdsource’s expectations), and the Astros and Angels made late runs before he signed with the Giants. His deal pays $15 million this year, with a $17 million signing bonus deferred until 2026; half of next year’s $30 million player option will be deferred until mild-2027 if he exercises it.

Injuries prevented the 31-year-old lefty from gaining momentum in the first half of the season. Despite an abbreviated spring, he debuted on April 8, but was dreadful in his first three turns, yielding 15 runs in 11.2 innings and then landing on the IL due to a left adductor strain. After two hitless rehab starts totaling nine innings, he struggled in three more big league starts in late May and June before being sidelined again due to a left groin strain. To that point, he had a 9.65 ERA and hadn’t completed five innings in a start. But after another five-inning hitless rehab start, he found a groove; four of his first five starts off the IL were scoreless, capped by his no-hitter against the Reds on August 2. He’s continued his roll, though a six-walk, three-inning effort against the Mariners on Saturday was nothing to write home about. Still, his splits are night and day relative to the period bracketed by his two IL trips:

Snell has tweaked his delivery a bit such that his horizontal and vertical release points have both decreased since the early going, as has his extension. He’s cut his slider usage from 16.5% before the second IL stint to 6.6% since, with the usage of his curve increasing from 18.9% to 32.4%. And why not, as the pitch is off the charts in terms of our modeling (from 144 to 148 in Stuff+, and from 66 to 76 in PitchingBot), though the big improvement there has been his fastball (103 to 115 in Stuff+, 56 to 68 in PitchingBot).

In other words, Snell is pitching like an ace, and so long as he stays healthy, he seems likely to test free agency again. Despite his imperfections, he’s got the highest ceiling of this group — he has the talent for a third Cy — and I’d expect him to land the biggest contract of the bunch next winter.