Cincinnati Reds Top 45 Prospects

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Cincinnati Reds. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chase Burns | 22.3 | AA | SP | 2025 | 55 |
2 | Alfredo Duno | 19.3 | A | C | 2028 | 55 |
3 | Chase Petty | 22.1 | MLB | SP | 2025 | 50 |
4 | Rhett Lowder | 23.2 | MLB | SP | 2025 | 50 |
5 | Luis Mey | 23.9 | MLB | SIRP | 2025 | 50 |
6 | Adam Serwinowski | 20.9 | A+ | SP | 2027 | 45+ |
7 | Edwin Arroyo | 21.7 | AA | SS | 2026 | 45 |
8 | Cam Collier | 20.5 | A+ | 3B | 2027 | 45 |
9 | Sal Stewart | 21.4 | AA | 3B | 2028 | 40+ |
10 | Héctor Rodríguez | 21.1 | AA | RF | 2026 | 40+ |
11 | Zach Maxwell | 24.3 | AAA | SIRP | 2025 | 40+ |
12 | Carlos Jorge | 21.6 | A+ | CF | 2026 | 40+ |
13 | Sheng-En Lin | 19.7 | R | SP | 2028 | 40+ |
14 | Tyson Lewis | 19.3 | R | SS | 2029 | 40+ |
15 | Connor Phillips | 24.0 | MLB | MIRP | 2025 | 40+ |
16 | Anyer Laureano | 22.3 | A | SIRP | 2028 | 40+ |
17 | Jose Acuna | 22.5 | AAA | SP | 2026 | 40 |
18 | Julian Aguiar | 23.9 | MLB | SP | 2025 | 40 |
19 | Ty Floyd | 23.7 | A | SP | 2026 | 40 |
20 | Luke Holman | 22.3 | A | SP | 2027 | 40 |
21 | Blake Dunn | 26.7 | MLB | CF | 2025 | 40 |
22 | Andrew Moore | 25.7 | AA | SIRP | 2025 | 40 |
23 | Kevin Abel | 26.2 | AA | MIRP | 2026 | 40 |
24 | Jose Franco | 24.4 | AA | SIRP | 2026 | 40 |
25 | Luke Hayden | 22.4 | A+ | MIRP | 2027 | 40 |
26 | Kenya Huggins | 22.4 | A | SIRP | 2027 | 40 |
27 | Tyler Callihan | 24.9 | MLB | 2B | 2025 | 35+ |
28 | Peyton Stovall | 22.2 | A+ | 2B | 2027 | 35+ |
29 | JeanPierre Ortiz | 21.2 | A | SP | 2028 | 35+ |
30 | Jirvin Morillo | 18.3 | R | C | 2030 | 35+ |
31 | Yerlin Confidan | 22.4 | A+ | RF | 2027 | 35+ |
32 | Adolfo Sanchez | 18.6 | R | RF | 2030 | 35+ |
33 | Arnaldo Lantigua | 19.4 | R | LF | 2029 | 35+ |
34 | Lyon Richardson | 25.3 | MLB | MIRP | 2025 | 35+ |
35 | Yosver Zulueta | 27.3 | MLB | SIRP | 2025 | 35+ |
36 | Jay Allen II | 22.4 | AA | CF | 2026 | 35+ |
37 | Leo Balcazar | 20.9 | A+ | SS | 2027 | 35+ |
38 | Victor Acosta | 20.9 | A+ | SS | 2027 | 35+ |
39 | Liberts Aponte | 17.5 | R | SS | 2031 | 35+ |
40 | Kyle Henley | 20.4 | A | CF | 2030 | 35+ |
41 | Adrian Herrera | 20.7 | A | SP | 2028 | 35+ |
42 | Cole Schoenwetter | 20.6 | A | SP | 2028 | 35+ |
43 | Ovis Portes | 20.4 | A | SIRP | 2028 | 35+ |
44 | Cody Adcock | 22.9 | A+ | SIRP | 2028 | 35+ |
45 | Dalvin Rosario | 24.9 | A | SIRP | 2027 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
A Few Too Many K’s
Naibel Mariano, SS
Sammy Stafura, SS
Carlos Sanchez, 3B
Ethan O’Donnell, OF
Ricky Cabrera, 3B
Mariano signed for $1.65 million last January and then had a contact rate down near 60% in his first DSL season. He’s a good defender and very projectable at a lanky 6-foot-3. He should be monitored for improvement, but it isn’t as if a team is tripping over itself to trade for a guy who hit .188 in the DSL. Stafura has a very long swing and ran a sub-70% contact rate last year, and he’s off to an even worse start at Daytona this season. His shortstop defense is inconsistent, but he’s athletic enough to play there. Sanchez, 20, is a well-built lefty-hitting third baseman whose contact performance has become more of a problem as he’s reached full season ball. O’Donnell is a hard-swinging lefty outfielder out of Virginia who hit 10 bombs and stole 31 bases in 2024. He’s a corner guy with a ton of in-zone swing-and-miss. Cabrera signed for $2.7 million back in 2022. He’s a free swinger and below-average defender who has had some underlying red flags related to his chase and contact, even back in rookie ball when his surface line was great.
(Lars Voice) “Far Away”
Arij Fransen, RHP
Dominic Scheffler, LHP
Fransen is a 23-year-old Dutch righty with an uphill 92-94 mph fastball and an average slider that he can land for strikes, but not for chase. He’s pitching in relief at Double-A. Scheffler, 20, is a 6-foot-4 Swiss lefty who signed for 165,660 Swiss Francs in 2023. If he makes it to the bigs, he’ll be the first Swiss-born spieler since Otto Hess, who pitched for Cleveland and Boston in the early 1900s. There’s a fantastic 30-minute German-language documentary about Scheffler’s first year in pro ball on YouTube (readers can monkey with the closed captions so that they’re in English). The highlights: Scheffler played amateur ball in Zurich and Regensburg, and for a time was an exchange student in Japan. He was signed knowing he’d need TJ, which he returned from in 2024. He likes MarioKart, but maybe not the west side of the Phoenix metro. He broke 2025 camp with Low-A Daytona and is struggling with walks for the second straight year, but he’s got a shot to wear a big league uniform as a lefty relieever. He’ll touch 94, his fastball has some natural cut at times, and he’ll flash a nice slider.
Spot Starter Types
Tristan Smith, LHP
Jose Montero, RHP
Brian Edgington, RHP
Nestor Lorant, RHP
David Lorduy, RHP
Smith was last year’s fifth rounder out of Clemson, a three-pitch lefty who sits 93 and could end up with three average pitches. Montero is a 21-year-old Venezuelan righty who commands a 90-93 mph two-seamer, an average slider, and a power-sinking changeup. He’s currently at Dayton. Edgington, 26, is coming off a 2024 in which he posted a 1.21 WHIP in 113.1 innings combined across both A-ball levels. The 2023 UDFA out of Virginia has a good changeup and throws strikes with a 90-92 mph heater. Lorant is a 22-year-old Venezuelan righty who has had A-ball success while sitting 89 and working with a good changeup. Lorduy is a 21-year-old pitchability righty from Colombia who reached full-season ball late last year and has pitched well in a handful of Low-A outings. He commands an average slider and changeup to either side of the plate and can elevate a 91-92 mph fastball. A roughly average athlete with below average projection, he has depth starter ceiling.
Fringe Relievers
Lenny Torres Jr., RHP
Donovan Benoit, RHP
Simon Miller, RHP
Easton Sikorski, RHP
A former highly touted Guardians prospect, Torres signed with Cincinnati on a minor league deal this offseason. He’s again sitting 96-98 mph without great movement in a relief role at Triple-A Louisville. Benoit is a limber, low-slot righty reliever at Chattanooga. He has uncommon arm strength for a sidearmer and will touch 97, but his feel for location is too crude to include him on the main section of the list. His slider is tough on righties because of his slot, and if his control progresses late (he’s nearly 27), he’ll be a middle-inning option. Miller is a 24-year-old cutter-heavy reliever who K’d a little more than a batter per inning in his first full pro season. He’s peaking around 96 at Chattanooga, while sitting 93-94. Sikorski, 25, was the Reds’ 2022 17th rounder out of Western Michigan. He’s a deceptive relief righty sitting 91 with plus ride, and he has two average secondaries that diverge in opposite directions. He’s having early-season success at Dayton and should have a quick hook to Chattanooga given his age.
Last Year’s DSL Names to Know
Yeycol Soriano, OF
Samuel Perez, RHP
Angelo Mora, C
Yael Romero, 1B
Enmanuel Talavera, RHP
Rafhlmil Torres, SS
Anielson Buten, 2B/LF
Soriano is a projectable lefty-hitting center fielder who has had two good DSL seasons from a bat-to-ball standpoint, and will come to the ACL this summer. He’s an advanced center field defender and is probably a little taller than his listed 6-feet. Perez is a 20-year-old Panamanian righty who made his debut in the 2024 DSL. He has a gorgeous delivery, a precocious changeup and curveball, and his upper-80s fastball has riding life. He’s only 6-foot-1 or so, and is projectable more because of his athleticism and mechanics than his size. He’s part of the Reds’ extended spring training group in Arizona. Mora is a physical 19-year-old Venezuelan catcher who posted an .838 OPS in the 2024 DSL. He’s short to the ball and has a mature all-fields approach. Romero is a physical lefty-hitting first baseman with a muscular physique and compact swing. He also walked more than 20% of the time in each of his two DSL seasons. Talavera is a 19-year-old Venezuelan righty with plus projection and a great breaking ball. He was sitting just 88-89 mph last year, but he still had success in the DSL in both a bat-missing and strike-throwing sense. Torres is a slick-fielding switch-hitter who posted a 9% K% in the DSL last year but still had a below-average line because he’s so lacking in power. He’s a breakout candidate if he can add strength. Buten is an undersized Haitian 2B/OF with above-average bat speed and below-average bat control. He had a strong second DSL season in 2024.
System Overview
This system is roughly average, maybe a shade above because of the five-pack of Top 100 talents at the very top. It has roughly average overall depth, with a pretty typical cluster of impact role players (the 40+ FV tier and above). There are lots of soon-to-be-big-league-ready pitchers here, many of whom project to have considerable impact. This pitching depth (which is already being tested by injuries and Alexis Díaz’s swoon) is a big reason why I picked the Reds to win the NL Central this year. Velocity reigns supreme in Cincinnati, with 14 fastballs topping out at 98 mph or above when you include Lenny Torres Jr. Hunter Greene is the poster boy for big, sustainable velo, not just in this org but probably for the league as a whole. He is seemingly delivering on every molecule of hype generated around him since he was in high school, and he’s about to have a bunch friends.
The hitting side of the Reds system is not as strong. As much as I love Alfredo Duno, he’s risky, and so is basically every other hitting prospect on this list for one reason or another. I don’t think there’s a single prospect with a future plus hit tool in this entire system. So many of the Reds’ position player prospects have “inside out” styles of contact, where they struggle to pull fastballs and can really only hit them the other way. Hitters like this make me nervous and they’re all over this list. Even Héctor Rodríguez, who can turn on his fair share of pitches, is risky because he’s a corner guy who has historically been very impatient at the dish. That group in the 45 and 40+ FV tier all project to play meaningful part-time roles, but I’d be surprised if any of them became the sort of build-around player who the org seeks to sign to a long-term extension. The Reds have a couple of guys in the big leagues who look like that kind of player (Elly De La Cruz, and maybe Noelvi Marte), but most of the impact in the system rests with the pitching.
The Reds haven’t made a ton of sellers trades recently, so it’s a little tough to gauge their pro scouting tastes, but look at the hit rate on some of the deals they have made. Both prospects from the Mets in the Tyler Naquin trade are still relevant, and everyone from the Luis Castillo swap except for Levi Stoudt (who reached the big leagues) is still around. Do they have the pieces to make a buyer’s deal this summer? If I’m on the other end of the phone and the Reds are looking to trade for my star outfielder, I’m asking for Duno and trying to mitigate the risk by getting a couple of high-floored arms, too.
Internationally, the Reds tend to be willing to stick their necks out to sign $3 million-ish players, and yet they still have enough DSL players to fill two rosters. This is because they leave many of their players down there for two years, which is becoming more common. They haven’t had enormous success with their top-of-the-market guys, but the sheer size of their operation in the D.R. creates many opportunities for lower bonus players to emerge.
Domestically, the Reds draft lots of junior college players (there are six in the system right now, some of whom were traded for) and frequently siphon from the Southeast, especially Florida and Georgia. Ten players on the list went to high school in one of those two states. The Reds pick ninth in this year’s draft and should add someone who slots into the system on either side of Adam Serwinowski.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
At this point I’ll get the Seattle prospects in October, like we do every year.
Keep up the good work.
Yeah but it will be extremely thorough and informative! I especially enjoy the little glimpses of team philosophies distributed throughout the descriptions and summaries.
I certainly agree that the depth and quality of these reports is the most important thing, but I’d really prefer them to all be issued closer to each other in time. It’s very hard to compare across systems when there’s so much variation in the data available at time of publication.
I couldn’t care less about fantasy, and Eric should have all the time he needs / wants to write reports that he’s proud of, but the fact that some 2025 reports will include observations from 200 PAs of 2025 play, and others were released before opening day is a problem.
the lists are slow played because years from now he can look back at the rankings and claim he was more accurate than his peers.
he’s cheating
I don’t think any prospect writer is much more accurate than their peers. Some get some parts right, others get other parts, and ZiPS gets even different parts right. I think that your take is overly cynical and not nice to someone who obviously spends a lot of time and effort in his analysis.
I also think that given how imperfect prospect prediction is, there is more value to me in analyzing the individual prospects to find trends and philosophies within teams and the league. That stuff probably does not change from the start of the season to the end of the season and is a reason I’m unconcerned with the time it takes the lists to be published.
You have about the most logical, well-reasoned response I’ve seen on these boards. It’s usually a traditionalist who tries to crap on it all, and frankly a bunch of sycophants who then bandwagon to inslut the commenter while making unreasonable claims. I disagree with how the community handles it, I disagree that it needs to be handled at all. The problem isn’t Eric, it’s that the traditionalist is looking for something to pick at and comes with criticism that’s one big logical fallacy, and the FG community doesn’t allow for critical feedback at all, even when the authors have announced in advance they were tinkering and would need it.
Eric is a tick below his “peers”, but people don’t realize that FG doesn’t offer nearly the same resources, and that FG is always evolving, trying more new methods, stats, techniques, and analysis than any other outlet, and it’s not close. For well over a decade, when the industry takes a step forward, it’s bc FG spent years adopting a new way of thinking/grading/evaluating/valuing. They then spend years proving it, and they don’t get it perfect the first time, obviously, that’s not even a reasonable expectation. Anyone that is bringing a whole new set of stats to the industry is going to have to live in state of flux and adjusting, otherwise they won’t end up making through to the other side with something of value.
The most convenient example of this is WAR. I remember the days when it was flat rejected, jokes about “WAR, what is it good for” with the predictable punch line of “NoThInG”, and the slow adoption into mainstream baseball. Then suddenly, 8 years in or whatever, boom. Dave Cameron is swooped by an MLB team. Carson Cistulli, Chris Mitchell, Jeff Sullivan, Eno Sarris, and most relevantly, Eric was hired by the twins, Kylie went to ATL. Plus a few guys got hired by the Athletic, Travis Sawchik was hired by FiveThirtyEight, FG was the recruiting pool for baseball talent.
Because they spent the better part of a decade working through the kinks, they envisioned something better, and went for it. On day 1, it wasn’t better. But before long, a couple of SABR meetings, contributions from others in the community like ofc Bill James or Dan before he came to FG helped to dial it in. The contributions were mostly individual, besides maybe Baseball Prospectus, at least before Statcast came along.
Then the investments started to get made into the minor league landscape, but had the challenge of the lost 2020 season and the minor leagues getting cut by a third, and young players not being as visible and not getting as many early reps to improve as generations before them did, which meant not giving scouts and analysts as many chances to see them. And not all teams, leagues, and parks made the same investments, I mean batted ball data in the minor leagues is a new thing that isn’t full perfected yet. And then where does MLB test new ideas that change the game, test things that are brand new, be it balls, shorter distance between bases, robo umps, pitch clocks, and ghost runners, to name a few?
I think it was 2 years ago, but it may have been 3, Eric also had Tess to help. I assume she was a help. He didn’t have that this year.
So I don’t want to be inflammatory and claim that Eric outperforms other outlets in the rankings, because he doesn’t. But the outlets he’s compared to are enterprises. ESPN, The Athletic, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus.
That’s not the right comparison though, the resources we’re comparing are apples and bicycles. Compare Eric to any blogger, any Patreon, any fantasy site, or even the big institutions that don’t back their guys with resources like USA Today, NBC, or CBS Sports, which are his actual peers, and all of a sudden, Eric is a tick above his peers.
Given the honest reality of what he does, how he does, and what he does it with, there is exactly one peer of his that I think was ever a better analyst, and that’s John Sickels, who had two advantages himself. He wasn’t trailblazing new ways for mass adoption, and all he did was minor league prospecting, so he never had his attention divided by doing prospect write ups for trades, or have to try to fit what he did into a dollar value system. And Sickels had developed a huge, engaged, and frankly expert community, much more knowledgeable about minor league than the FG community, because again, that’s ALL he did. That community list from Minor League ball used to outperform everybody, including the Baseball America’s of the world, and John’s individual list, but he was smart in that he very much accepted the help of that community.
So while he was also ‘just a dude’, I’m not sure Sickels is a 1:1 peer.
Eric isn’t perfect, nor is he a finished product. I’ve been here for well over a decade, I’ve seen him come, I’ve seen him go, I’ve seen him come back, I’ve seen him make mistakes, and I’ve seen him get better. This Eric is better at his job than the Eric that was here the first time. But that’s normal. That’s a good thing, growth is good lol, nobody is perfect. Eric was good then, but he’s better now. We all have jobs, we all save templates, we all end up discovering shortcuts we can use that we’ve forgotten or contained a wrong name or a wrong date or something we copied and pasted. Why would Eric be any different? Eric is great now, but he’s not an institution, he can’t do what he can’t do. But he does what he can do very well, and it’s very a impressive load he carries on his shoulders.
Whew. Sorry for the rant, something I’ve wanted to get off my chest for a long time, but the normal FG community member goes off the rails and it ends up being a debate where I don’t agree with either side, so I just sit on the sidelines. Just like any other topic nowadays, it’s usually immediately divisive, but both sides both kinda jerks about it off the bat and unwilling to listen to the other, so this was a long time in the making lol.
And if I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I’m wrong everyday. My favorite thing in life is being proven wrong. I just won’t let someone lie and prove me wrong about something I never claimed or thought. But I know that 10-years ago, I was wrong more than I am nowadays, and that growth has been because of FG going through what I described above, so they haven’t just elevated MLB or the baseball industry with their trials and tribulations, they’ve elevated fans as well. If anyone craps on that, they missed the script and really aren’t worth bothering with.
Let’s not exaggerate. He’ll rush through the last 10 or so in late June/early July to finish by the draft which seems to have become his effective deadline for the prospect season that everybody else wraps up in early March at the latest.
Buy a subscription and help fund someone to help Eric out then.
What are all the ads paying for then
Whiney nobs like you.
I have more or less given up on thinking that there is any way to convince Eric and / or the editors that if it’s all ongoing that there’s no need to make the initial list super comprehensive.
If this is supposed to be an ongoing thing, why does it need to be that Eric publishes every prospect in an organization at one time? Why not just publish the prospects you have done in March, note who still needs to get done, and add training camp stuff afterwards?
For whatever reason, this is the editorial choice that was made. I’m not quitting my FanGraphs membership or anything or going to stop reading these prospect lists (they are very good) but why Eric and the editorial team has chosen this tactic, when the prospect lists are out of date when they are published?
I think it has to be that it is perfectionism. There is always more information to source or prospects to watch. Somehow, someone needs to convince Eric that it is okay to publish something even if you don’t have scouting reports about every guy in the DSL ready.
Yeah, now that MLB has macheted the minors in favor of short term savings, I definitely understand a framework of knocking out the full-season prospects by April, then hitting the rest over the summer.
Eric is very proud of the fact that he gets every prospect of note in the organization, but I just don’t see why it has to be every prospect in *one list*. A post-training camp series of lists with updates during Spring Training, deep dives from the DR, etc would satisfy the requirements.
I agree, and I’ve suggested something similar. Just have The Board contain an evergreen compendium of the latest report on all the prospects, with a searchable report date attached. The whole org doesn’t need to be released on the same day. And then FV55s can get updated every couple months and FV40s can get a look every year and the FV35+s and honorable mentions can get an initial write up, and then a second edit when they advance or fall back.
That may be a terrible idea from a business POV, as these articles have to be among the most trafficked, but that would be my ideal case and I think it would have to take a lot of pressure off Eric. No deadlines. Just publish the information when you have it.
That’s not exactly what I am suggesting. What I am suggesting is that it doesn’t make sense to wait for any information from Winter Ball or Spring Training or reports from sources on obscure prospects.
The key here is that Eric and his team need to be collecting all of this data from September through December, and to *stop collecting data* between about January through the first day of Spring Training and just write it up. They’re going to miss people in that situation and that is okay but they should have the most important prospects. They can just note that there are these other prospects they need more data on, note a tentative FV grade, and then release a series of articles at the beginning of April with Spring training data and other things they learned.
I completely agree with this. Collect the data at the end of 2024 and then write up the reports from that time. Like you said, some things will be missed, but maybe having monthly updates at a high level afterwards would help out.
I also realize Eric likes to get in person looks at players so that impacts this as well, but maybe the 2nd contributor can be stable going forward and do some video scouting. I think having in person scouting is partially why the rate of lists in the true off-season is slow and then picks up a little by minors camp days and then more once spring training and the season start.
These prospect lists are a huge factor in my subscription and I will continue for them, but hoping the next cycle the team takes user feedback. Feedback is a good thing. It means people are interested and using the info published. I realize some people are rude and unrealistic, but filter out the noise and focus on the actual realistic obtainable feedback. Handling constructive feedback is vital though as it helps keep happy customers.
I’m a perfectionist. The idea of submitting something that’s 80% or 90% complete, but could be better, and knowing it could be better, just doesn’t compute. When I’ve been told that something doesn’t need to be as “good”, as thorough, it can be offensive, an assault on what you feel makes you, YOU, at your job.
All that is to say, if it’s a perfectionist thing, there is probably no convincing him. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, there are pros and cons all along the spectrum from generalist to perfectionist. Obviously, I prefer the perfectionist all day long.
And I also suspect the hybrid is a unicorn, they’re just such hard concepts to marry. If that’s the case, if one is acid and the other is a base, so it’s more of a choice between A or B, I know the community overwhelmingly prefers the perfectionist too, whether they realize it or not, bc they’re the FanGraphs community. We wouldn’t be here if we didn’t, FG got adopted by mainstream, it didn’t become mainstream. There’s a big difference, and that’s a main differentiator between FG and mainstream baseball.
I would like them either in the off-season or during spring training but I’m good with the current pace as well. That said I would highly appreciate them before the trade deadline.