Cody Allen, Carlos Carrasco, & Where to Subtract in Cleveland
The Cleveland Indians finished in third place in the AL Central last season, but just 4.5 games out of the Wild Card, and 13.5 behind the eventual World Series champion Royals. With a pitching staff fronted by Corey Kluber and a young talented infield headed by superprospect Francisco Lindor, the Indians are looking at 2016 as a chance to take the next step and make the playoffs for the first time since 2013. But, being the Indians, they have a problem.
Taking that next step towards the playoffs means adding to the team’s offense. Last season Cleveland scored 669 runs. Only Seattle, the Angels, the White Sox, and Tampa scored fewer, and nobody scored much fewer. The Indians were 47 runs ahead of the last place White Sox, but 222 runs behind first place Toronto. The team wasn’t wholly without merit, though, as they also allowed just 640 runs, the second fewest in the AL and one fewer than those darn Royals. So, if we can speak in broad generalizations for the moment, we can say that the Indians have pitching and fielding, but to become a championship-caliber team, they need to score some runs. They need offense. So get some offense. That’s it. The end! Thanks for reading!
But, wait! This is the Indians we’re talking about. They can’t just go out and get offense. They can’t sign Jason Heyward or Chris Davis. Like your roommate, they’re perennially short on funds, dude (but if you front them for some pizza they’ll totally get you back next Thursday). So the problem is twofold: the Indians don’t have the ability to simply sign someone at market rates because to do so would blow up their salary structure. This means a trade. And, as shell-shocked Red Sox fans trying to talk themselves into the Craig Kimbrel trade will tell you, you have to give up something to get something.
Further, if Cleveland is going to acquire a major league player who can hit and play the outfield passably well, the likelihood is they’ll have to give up major league players to do it. Sure, the Brewers might be inclined to deal Ryan Braun and the Padres will gladly give you a steaming helping of Matt Kemp, but that will detonate the ol’ salary structure as well, and then there’s that whole “we’re trying to win” thing. So that’s a polite no thanks. This is all by way of explaining why the Indians, a team that is trying to win now, have been mentioned so prominently in trade rumors recently and even going back to the end of last season.
And, in fact, even while I’ve been writing this, here it comes again. Via MLB Trade Rumors:
The Blue Jays, Dodgers and Yankees are among the teams that have reached out to the Indians and had “preliminary” trade talks about Cleveland’s starting pitching, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). The still-very-early frameworks being discussed would each send a controllable starter away from Cleveland in exchange for an everyday outfielder, he continues.
The problem with this is obvious. It robs Peter to pay Paul, as they old saying goes, and I’m not sure it doesn’t rob Peter’s wife, and their neighbor Frank as well. The cost of giving up a Carlos Carrasco or Kluber is significant. Sure, you’re saying, the Indians would get something significant back, and I’m certain you’re right. They would. But this is simply a reallocation of resources. This is taking four WAR and moving it from your rotation to your outfield, and that’s if you do it right. If you don’t, like the beaming ray in Spaceballs: The Movie, you lose something in the translation.
So the answer is to make a deal for a part of your team that you can more easily replace, a part of your team that isn’t as valuable as a starting outfielder, but maybe is perceived to be. The answer is for the Indians to trade Cody Allen. Allen, in case you’re not familiar, is a reliever and a super good one at that. Go to our pitcher leaderboards here at FanGraphs and sort relief pitchers by WAR and golly gee wiz, guess who you’ll find is on the very top. It’s Cody Allen. I acknowledge WAR isn’t the best tool to evaluate relievers, but it says something that Allen is at the top. Last season he struck out 34.6% of the hitters he faced, sixth in all of baseball for qualified relievers behind Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Kenley Jansen, Dellin Betances, and Craig Kimbrel. What’s more, his FIP was lower than all of the above. He’s been a force out of Cleveland’s bullpen for three seasons now and, for those who care about such things, he’s been snatching up the saves for the last two of those.
Of course the Indians don’t want to trade him. But would they be better off with Carrasco, Kluber, and Danny Salazar in their rotation, taking up 550 innings (or hopefully more) next season, or would they be better off if they lopped 180 off that number, but kept the 65 thrown by Allen? I think they would. Jeff Sullivan wrote an interesting piece here looking at whether or not elite relievers are undervalued by WAR. He seemed to think it’s a distinct possibility, so it’s not with the certainty of the early aughts that I propose to keep the starter and dump the reliever. Still, even with Jeff’s bump for relievers, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Allen is as valuable next season as Kluber, Carrasco, or Salazar. While it’s not easy to find elite relievers, it’s much easier to make due at the back of the bullpen than it is to go without a quality third starter.
Given the way teams are valuing elite relief pitchers now, it makes sense that smart teams should start to see what their guys will fetch in what looks to be an inflated trade market. This goes doubly for Cleveland because their choice isn’t “where to add” so much as “where to subtract.” It’s possible the reliever market isn’t inflated and Allen won’t get them what they need. I fully acknowledge that as a possibility. But given what Boston paid for Kimbrel, what’s been reported for Chapman, and what Darren O’Day has been asking for on the free agent market, the Indians owe it to themselves to see if Allen gets them what they need. Because if they’re going to compete in the division with the reigning World Series winners they’re going to have to strengthen their roster this off-season, not move value around from one roster spot to the next, and if they’re trading off Carlos Carrasco or one of their other strong starters that is going to be much more difficult than if they’re getting an everyday player for a relief pitcher.
“The Cleveland Indians finished in third place in the AL Central last season, but just 4.5 games behind the eventual World Series champion Royals”
They finished 14.5 games behind
*13.5
I somehow confused the Wild Card column on MLB.com with the Games Back column. Fixed. Thanks!
While I think most of us can agree Kemp isn’t very good, Ryan Braun is coming off a solid year and projects as an above average starter going forward.
Do you want him on your team for the asking price (either in dollars and/or players going the other way) ? Also he hasn’t exactly been the picture of health. Not horrible, but still.
Nor is his glove great shakes.
He’s also 32, just had back surgery, and will make $95 MM over the next 5 years. Super hard pass.
hi get me and whatever you do dont let me play defense
Yes to this, er, you.
The Tribe’s biggest hole in the FG’s depth chart (and in reality) is DH. There is likely more than one decent bat out there with a lead glove that would cost a lot less than Cody Allen. A cheap righty CFer would remove another of the team’s 150 worst PAs in the current depth chart. The offense would still be unremarkable, but things are not quite as bleak as this article makes them out to be.
Also, using last season’s results as a baseline for diagnosing a problem is kind of weak. Why not use projected wOBA in the FG’s depth charts?
As a Giants fan, I’ve been kicking around the idea of a Brandon Belt for Carlos Carrasco trade. I do think that the Giants would need to supplement the trade with an additional piece due to the contract for Carrasco, maybe a guy like Hunter Cole or higher upside piece. Steamer projects Carrasco for 5.1 WAR next year but with a career high in IP. Belt is projected as a 2.8 WAR but in 2013 and 2015 he produced 4.4 and 4.3 WAR respectively. Am I being a homer with this trade proposal or is it legitimate?
Homer, Carrasco’s probably the better player right now and he has more long term value.
That’s what I thought as well but when you usually only talk with other Giants fans its easy to overvalue your teams players. Thanks, I appreciate it!
Carrasco’s under team control for 5 more years, Belt only 2 more. That adds a lot to Carrasco’s value.
PLus, based on what we saw in the second half of 2014, I don’t think it’s inconceivable that Carrasco pulls a Kluber and turns in a Cy Young campaign in the next few years. I don’t see Belt with that same type of upside.
Plus Belt is a lefty (they have Chisenhall) and doesn’t play that great of a defensive 1B (where they have Santana).
Well to be fair, there are a few inaccuracies about Brandon Belt in the above comments. He is under team control until 2018, so 3 more years of control compared to the 2 that is stated. Also, last year he was worth -1.2 runs defensively at 1B. To put that in perspective, Paul Goldschmit was worth -6.9 runs defensively, so I call him a very good defensive 1B.
Belt doesnt play that great of a defensive 1B? Where are you getting that from?
He was actually THE best defensive first baseman in baseball last year according to defensive metric used on this very site.
Only Posey posted a better defensive score (but obviously he played far far fewer innings than the full time first basemen).
Go back a full 3 years and hes been the best in baseball since 2013.
Sorry, but you are 100% wrong about Belt’s defense.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d
Carrasco has an enormous amount of value. Belt isn’t coming close.
Grichuk and Tyler Lyons for Carrasco? That’s what came to mind for me and made the most sense for all parties.
Could they realistically get Braun and Lind in one package?
Of course they could. It probably wouldn’t take as much as you’d think either. Braun is expensive and hurt and declining.
They can’t afford them, nor would they give up long-term assets to acquire them. And it still doesn’t solve the question of who plays centerfield.
I think they’ll only make a trade if it’s opportunistic. They would have to receive more perceived value than they’re giving up to pull the trigger. You won’t see them trade Carrasco or Salazer without receiving more in both value and long-term assets.
They can definitely afford them if Milwaukee eats some money. Obviously the prospect loss increases with every dollar saved but is Cleveland’s farm so good to sit on through there best window in years. Seems like a relatively cheap source of offense.
CF is definitely a priority but if that can’t be acquired easily gotta find some bats.
I really like that point about the value of the prospects vs the value of the performance window. The author didn’t seem to address it directly either…
Yep
It’s why that As Russel trade probably isn’t as bad as people make it out to be. Would that As team be that much better today to make it worth hanging on to Russel? I don’t believe so.
If you’re looking at a 2-3 year window and your prospect is 4 years away from contributing at a productive level, that prospect has effectively zero value on the field for that team. By hanging onto a prospect through your window you’re saving him for when the team is most likely to be bad anyway.
Matthew,
What about the rumors that have been swirling about a Bauer for Ozuna deal? Bauer has some upside and team control, not to mention that the move to the NL and an even more pitcher friendly park will likely make him more valuable to the Marlins. This would get the Indians a RH power hitter and a CF.
I don’t love Ozuna. I’d rather have Bauer, but perhaps I’m wrong. Even if so, I don’t see that as an upgrade on the current roster so much as the aforementioned moving value from one place to another.
I don’t know that’s the case though. For WAR to WAR, sure, Ozuna and Bauer probably have similar upside. But that’s the type of move that, while maybe not a huge upgrade, could still be an upgrade for Cleveland. Ozuna would be replacing someone who is probably close to replacement level, an Abraham Almonte, or Chisenhall, or whatever body will fill in for Brantley. If you remove Bauer from the rotation, then you’re replacing him with Cody Anderson or Josh Tomlin, who might both perform better than Bauer anyway.
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Ok what browser though?
I have the answer, but you need to stop yelling. Will you stop yelling?
Here’s the thing about the Indians making a trade that shuffles around WAR: that might be fine. By WAR, they had the second best pitching staff in the AL and the fourth best offense. Once they fixed their defense last year, their biggest issue by far was offensive sequencing, as evidenced by how massively they underperformed their third-order winning percentage. As an Indians fan, it was incredibly frustrating to watch what had potential to be a good season go to waste because of what really looks like luck while a division rival that third order winning percentage said was 7 games worse won a championship. But on the other hand, if they can have the exact same season next year except with average sequencing, they should be in contention. So limiting themselves to a WAR-shuffling trade or two from a major league roster strength to shore up a weak outfield might be a good idea, and might be all they need to suddenly look like a 90-win team next season without giving up prospects or significantly increasing payroll.
All that said, as a guy who thinks this is a better team than it looked this season, I would love to see them make that sort of trade while keeping all of their starting pitching. If they can somehow flip Cody Allen for a serviceable CF, I’ll be thrilled.
I’m not that familiar with the Indians situation financially, but couldn’t they sign someone like Austin Jackson to a 3 year $10-12 MM contract if they see CF as their biggest obstacle to winning now? That leaves the staff and bullpen, two big strengths, intact and doesn’t break the bank or give up prospects. Assuming Clint Frazier is the real deal, Jackson would just be keeping it warm for him in 2017/18 anyway.
Yes they could but Austin Jackson isn’t very good. He might not even be better than Abraham Almonte. The Indians need an actual good hitter, especially with Brantley likely on the shelf for at least April
Maybe Cleveland’s problem is that their pitching staff is too good:
There might be free agent starters available at a price they’d be interested in, but there’s no way for them to really upgrade so long as their rotation is as good as it is.
So they trade a young, cheap 4 WAR Carrasco for a young, cheap 4 WAR CF then go sign, say, Wei-Yin Chen.
So are you getting at a Carrasco/Pollock swap?
Who says no there?
AZ I would think. They want to turn their cash into an ace or potential ace.
You guys do realize that Carrasco is an ace right? Carrasco is much more valuable than Pollack, who relies on BABIP and stolen bases to be an elite player.
You do realize Pollock is coming off a 6 WAR season right? BABIP fueled or not (his skill set lends itself to a higher one anyway), Pollock has tremendous value.
Pollack has only three somewhat expensive seasons of team control left. He might be the [slightly] better player now, but Carrasco is probably the more valuable asset, even taking injury risk into account.
That’s…not what I’m getting at at all, actually.
I might, maybe something around that could be worked out, but my point was that, currently, there’s no point in Cleveland looking at free agent pitchers because they have no use for them. There could be something there they’d like, but there’s no point so long as there’s no upgrade possible.
And, as a corollary to that: if they’re going to move a pitcher and replace them with a free agent, they had to do it this year when there are decent FA pitchers available, ’cause next year is a disaster.
If Cleveland is moving a starter, I’d bet on it happening during the off-season or not at all.
Word,
Didn’t mean to imply anything, just thought Pollock is the only CF that is even remotely realistic in a trade.
Yeah I think it will be this off season or nothing too. But I don’t think it has anything to do with the pitching available. If Cleveland trades a starter it’s because they got blown away, got a starter back, or they really trust their internal replacements.
They could take on risk though, couldn’t they? For example, a Baez or to a lesser extent Soler out of CHC would not cost as much as an established OF because of the high downside risk…
I’m sure if Carrasco (or even Salazar) is on the table, any number of cost controlled, good young hitters become available. I bet the Cubs let Soler go for Carrasco. Cards could think about one of their young OF. Corey Dickerson of the Rockies. Josh Reddick. I dunno, just making names up, but there would be a bunch of interest.
Bauer for Gardner and a something else. Yankees kick in 9 million to make Gardner not just affordable but a steal.
I’m assuming, contrary to what this article takes as it’s premise that the Indians are shopping pitching that does not include kluber and the possibility of carrasco or Salazar being moved isn’t much lower
Yankees don’t do that, not close. Bauer is all a projection play at this point and might not even make the Yankees’ rotation. They don’t give up Gardner for that, let alone pay his salary too.
Well wasn’t eovaldi mostly a projection play? Gardner is more valuable than Prado and Phelps and clearly eovaldi has had more success than bauer but i still love Bauer. Now the Yankees do trust their analytics and bauer has been a massive disappointment but i think I’d go for it. I’m not sure you can get a better prospect for Gardner than Bauer.
Plus then they can go sign Heyward my main goal 🙂
I think Cleveland wants Kevin Pillar!!
Do it
I’m not sure if the Indians would trade with Toronto this soon after Shapiro took over unless Toronto really knocked them over with value.Would be Pillar plus other(s).
Name me a contending team that has an OF to spare that also really needs a RP like Allen. If Morosi’s report is to be believed not the Dodgers, Yankees or the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have the OF to offer (Revere, Pillar, Pompey and Saunders – if he has any value) for one of Bauer, Carrasco or Salazar. Kluber would be great but he’d cost a lot more than the OF I just mentioned.
yeah i doubt saunders has trade value on this level right now, having only been dealt for a pre-hype happ even before he missed a year hurt. his role in this thing would be to move into the jays lineup to replace whichever guy they do trade. which is at least something
posting this primarily because i really wanted to say “pre-hype happ”
Contending team? aren’t all but a handful at least hopeful? Anywho I would nominate the RedSox whom have surplus outfielders and a need ton continue to rebuild the bullpen.
Pillar for Salazar
Pompey for Bauer
that’s gotta make both sides think for a second right?
As a jays fan if do pillar for salazar but I thin wed need to chip in colabello as well to get it done, possibly a c prospect too.
Carrasco and lower level B- Prospect for Gardner and Bird
would they trade cody anderson, and if they did, what’s he worth?
Wait what happened to Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, San Diego, Milwaukee, and the Dodgers? All of these teams scored less runs than Cleveland! Yes, the NL does not have a DH which suppresses their offense, but when the author claims “Only Seattle, the Angels, the White Sox, and Tampa scored fewer, and nobody scored much fewer” he is factually wrong.
Additionally to say that The White Sox scoring 47 fewer runs is “not much fewer” implies that 47 runs would be “not much more.” Therefore, 716 runs, or good enough for 9th in baseball (NL included) is not much more than what the Indians scored last year. So what exactly was this article supposed to be about again?
The author only listed fellow AL teams. Since AL teams don’t really compete for playoff spots with NL teams, this is a perfectly valid way of looking at it.
I suggested a trade along the following lines on a Pirate message board that I post on.
Pirates acquire Carrasco for Gregory Polanco, Jeff Locke and perhaps a player like Barret Barnes (#16 Pirate prospect).
Polanco has 4+ years of team control remaining. Locke is likely no better than a #5 starter, but he can help eat innings and will be due about $3.8 or so through arbitration this year. Barnes has put been hurt a lot through his minor league career, but is a talented player, albeit one who needs to be protected on the major league roster.
So — would a player like Polanco, rather than the Kemp’s and Braun’s of the world, merit the Indians trading Carrasco, who is signed to a very team friendly deal?
no
This is Cleveland, guys.
First consideration in a trade isn’t talent but contract.
So in any Carrasco deal, the player(s) coming back must be good and *affordable* for an extended period. No Todd Frazier deal in the making.
Not many such options.
Would Boston do Mookie Betts? Doubt it. But that’s what would fit in Cleveland.
So a Carrasco deal would have to be a package deal like the one that brought over Sizemore and Lee. The Cubs could do it. Not many others. That contract is too good for too long to trade.
The one deal I’ve seen suggested that makes sense is much lower profile: Ozuna. Since he is in the Doghouse in Miami and Miami already has a number one he can be had for Bauer: upside play for upside play, disappointment for disappointment. That is very much a Cleveland kind of trade. And since Miami wants young pitching and they want to get rid of Ozuna, it might not even take Bauer. Anderson might be a fit. Maybe even Tomlin or a couple of prospects.
Of course, if the Dodgers are eager enough to flip Puig for Bauer and a prospect or two, the Indians always have plenty of good fourth outfielder and middle relief prospects to throw in. Not holding my breath, though.
A more likely scenario is the Indians go dumpster diving among 4A outfielders for a temporary LF and a platoon partner for Chisenhall.
Carrasco to blue jays for Pillar and calobello. You get the second best defensive cf in AL who also hits fairly well and a solid defensive 1b who hits around 300 ok power and is consistent. Also both players are cheap.
Am of the trade a starter and add a minor league prospect for a stud/package and pickup a 4 or 5 hole pitcher/free agent with Tomlin and Anderson as back up. Might even be able to trade one of them in June if the team really takes off and Columbus staff pitchs well.