Chris Davis: A Risk in Free Agency

Chris Davis is a man of prodigious strength. His efforts, or sometimes lack thereof, have been chronicled by FanGraphs multiple times. Since Davis’ first season with the Baltimore Orioles in 2012, he leads all of major league baseball with 159 home runs and only Edwin Encarnacion is even within 20 home runs of him. Just 10 players are within 50 home runs of Davis over the last four years, which means even if Davis had hit zero home runs in 2015 instead of 47, he would rank in the top 10 over the last four years. As power has become increasingly rare over the past decade, Davis made a great comeback after a disappointing 2014 and is set to get paid in free agency this winter. Looking for comparable players, we can attempt to find out how much that great power is worth as Davis heads into his 30s.

To find historical comps for Davis, first I looked for players from 1960 through 2008 who’d produced a similar number of wins in a similar time framce — in this case, between 10 and 20 WAR through their age-29 seasons. As this is not an incredibly high bar, there were more than 300 players in resulting pool. To further narrow sample, I looked for players who fit a similar offensive profile, so within 10 points of Davis’ 121 wRC+ mark and at least a .200 isolated slugging (Davis’ is .251). This narrowed down the list to 42 players. Limiting the list only to players within 25% of Davis’ 3,512 plate appearances left just 31 players. Davis is coming off 47 home runs, a 147 wRC+, and a 5.6 WAR. Eliminating all players with a wRC+ below 125 or under 400 PA in their age-29 seasons left 15 players, many of whom appear very Chris Davis-like.

Chris Davis Comps Through Age 29

Name	PA	HR	ISO	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Lee May	3716	176	0.214	127	107.9	-58.2	19.6
Kirk Gibson	3104	126	0.205	128	112.9	-31.8	19.1
Trot Nixon	2739	106	0.218	122	77.9	-1.4	16.8
Carl Everett	2726	103	0.202	117	63.0	19.2	16.4
Tino Martinez	3495	157	0.211	115	67.4	-19.1	16.4
Cliff Floyd	3556	132	0.209	121	107.4	-54.8	16.3
Ryan Klesko	3369	165	0.242	128	120.8	-61.3	16.0
Jason Bay	3259	149	0.234	130	141.4	-88.2	15.9
Frank Howard	3445	162	0.210	127	108.2	-77.1	15.4
David Ortiz	3584	177	0.252	129	116.9	-89.3	14.9
Bobby Higginson	3434	134	0.208	118	80.9	-60.3	13.5
Dave Kingman	3385	204	0.252	115	55.4	-44.8	13.2
Pat Burrell	4145	188.0	0.221	117	73.1	-78.5	12.9
Tony Clark	3212	156	0.225	117	67.8	-61.8	11.5
Jay Buhner	2944	129	0.215	122	73.4	-69.3	10.2
AVERAGE	3341	151	0.221	122	91.6	-51.8	15.2
Chris Davis	3512	203	0.251	121	86.8	-67.6	14.5

Davis comes up a little bit higher in terms of power, but in offensive value, he is right around the midpoint of the group. In a comparison Scott Boras is likely to love, Davis’ career through age-29 looks a lot like David Ortiz’. Nor is it just through age 29 where the comparison exists. As only players with good age-29 seasons were included in the group, here are the above players’ age-29 seasons, among which group Davis compares favorably.

Chris Davis Comps at Age 29

Name	PA	HR	ISO	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Tino Martinez	685	44	0.281	141	35.9	-5.9	5.3
David Ortiz	713	47	0.304	157	45.7	-17	5.3
Trot Nixon	513	28	0.272	152	33.6	-0.2	5.0
Carl Everett	561	34	0.286	135	27.1	3.3	4.7
Bobby Higginson	679	30	0.238	131	30.5	-8.5	4.3
Cliff Floyd	609	28	0.244	139	35.0	-18.4	3.7
Kirk Gibson	521	28	0.224	136	27.3	-9.5	3.6
Ryan Klesko	590	26	0.233	135	29.2	-13.7	3.2
Jason Bay	670	31	0.236	133	32.8	-24.8	3.0
Lee May	647	29	0.206	137	26.6	-24.0	3.0
Jay Buhner	436	21	0.263	138	21.5	-10.6	2.5
Frank Howard	549	18	0.164	127	16.4	-10.4	2.3
Dave Kingman	448	28	0.276	131	14.5	-8.8	2.2
Tony Clark	497	16	0.194	125	15.3	-14.7	1.7
Pat Burrell	567	29	0.245	126	14.6	-18.1	1.5
AVERAGE	579	29	0.244	136	27.1	-12.1	3.4
Chris Davis	670	47	0.300	147	36.3	-5.5	5.6

While Davis’ age-29 season puts him even with some great seasons by David Ortiz and Tino Martinez, his inconsistent past, including a 2014 season in which he hit just .196/.300/.404, keep his comps on a more terrestrial level. The end of 2014 resulted in a 25-game suspension for Davis after he tested positive for Adderall twice. He had a therapeutic use exemption for the drug prior to 2013, but did not have one for either 2013 or 2014 when he was suspended. He gained an exemption this past season for a different drug to treat his attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, so the matter is unlikely to cause trouble again.

Among the players we find here, David Ortiz appears to profile as the most promising of comparables for Davis, but at age 30 and beyond, Ortiz is not even the best of Davis’ comps. That honor goes to Frank Howard. The chart below reveals the performance in the theoretical first four years of Davis’ free agent deal, where his team would hope for the best performance before a likely decline near the end of a contract.

Chris Davis Comps at Age-30 Through Age-33

Name	PA	HR	ISO	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Frank Howard	2656	172	0.269	163	183.2	-90	19.4
Kirk Gibson	1851	66	0.182	128	70.0	0.8	13.7
David Ortiz	2471	140	0.279	141	114.2	-59.7	13.6
Ryan Klesko	2217	89	0.217	135	106.8	-61.3	11.7
Jay Buhner	2157	139	0.275	126	73.1	-51.1	9.5
Tino Martinez	2540	106	0.201	107	21.5	-27.9	8.1
Lee May	2389	97	0.184	114	36.3	-43.8	7.3
Cliff Floyd	1884	81	0.210	116	47.2	-36.4	7.2
Dave Kingman	1888	125	0.263	122	49.2	-59.2	5.6
Trot Nixon	1444	30	0.139	102	1.8	5.4	5.6
Pat Burrell	2156	97	0.220	118	38.9	-54.0	5.6
Jason Bay	1763	62	0.182	107	23.9	-27.4	5.3
Bobby Higginson	2203	53	0.146	103	5.7	-31.5	4.9
Carl Everett	1779	65	0.186	104	5.1	-45.5	2.0
Tony Clark	1254	65	0.230	100	-5.6	-18.3	1.8
AVERAGE	2043	92	0.212	119	51.4	-40.0	8.1
AVG/YR	511	23	0.212	119	12.9	-10.0	2.0

Howard was a massive (6-foot-7, 250 pound) outfielder and three true outcomes hitter before they became en vogue. He walked in more than 10% of his career plate appearances and struck out nearly 20% time, 30%-40% more than league average. He had always hit well with the Dodgers, but after moving to the Washington Senators, his career took off with three straight five-win seasons, while recording at least 44 homers and a 160 wRC+ in all three years. As for Ortiz, little needs to be said about him that the reader won’t already know. Overall the group hit pretty well, but as defensive numbers declined, the group as a whole struggled to stay above average.

Jeff Passan at Yahoo rated Davis his top free agent position player, and Jon Heyman rated him the second overall free agent, predicting a seven-year, $182 million contract — while both Dave Cameron and the FanGraphs crowd gave Davis a more modest five-year contract at around $20 million per year. Looking at the comps above, we can attempt to place a value on the potential seven-year deal. The following chart adds ages 34-36 to the above chart to show the total value.

Chris Davis Comps at Age-30 Through Age-36

Name	PA	HR	ISO	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
Frank Howard	3908	220	0.239	151	217.2	-128.3	23.4
David Ortiz	4065	224	0.272	145	188	-99.0	22.8
Kirk Gibson	2905	97	0.176	119	76.8	-26.8	15.0
Ryan Klesko	3154	113	0.199	127	113.9	-74.4	14.1
Tino Martinez	4201	165	0.191	107	29.1	-49.5	12.1
Jay Buhner	2983	181	0.264	124	94.1	-72.8	12.0
Cliff Floyd	2507	101	0.197	113	49.5	-48.6	8.3
Dave Kingman	3440	203	0.236	115	62.6	-100.2	8.0
Lee May	4099	168	0.176	107	29.3	-87.3	7.9
Pat Burrell	2375	104	0.216	118	43.2	-60.1	6.1
Trot Nixon	1485	31	0.138	101	-0.1	5.9	5.6
Jason Bay	1999	73	0.183	106	22.3	-35.0	5.2
Bobby Higginson	2230	53	0.144	101	0.6	-32.9	4.3
Carl Everett	2669	99	0.178	97	-14.4	-65.9	1.1
Tony Clark	1830	91	0.217	95	-22.8	-30.9	0.7
AVERAGE	2923	128	0.202	115	59.3	-60.4	9.7
AVG/YR	418	18	0.202	115	8.5	-8.6	1.4

Those last three years don’t add much value to the overall value of this group, as the players continue to decline. On average, the Davis comps added just half a win per player per season in the final three years. Only four of 15 players were able to average two wins per season over the full seven years. Teams should expect this decline and hopefully gain a surplus of value in the first few years of any contract before a likely overpayment near the end.

The graph below features three sets of numbers: the average values of the comps separated into thirds, lowest to highest. This should provide reasonable expectations for Davis in the best case, most reasonable, and worst case scenario. The values are based on the current cost of a win at $8 million and rising 5% per year from inflation. As the charts above would suggest, there is a great disparity in potential values.

Averaging the 15 players instead of dividing them into thirds yields around $91 million over seven years. Using only the WAR averages from the first four seasons results in a value right around $70 million. Like any player who has shown he is capable of hitting 50 home runs, Davis has some really good, really impressive comps. Unfortunately, the big power, no defense profile does not always age well into a player’s 30s. Davis is certainly capable of continuing his 2015 season into the future, but there is considerable downside. If the amounts speculated about come close to his eventual contract, the signing team will be taking a substantial bet on his upside, but exposing themselves to considerable risk.