Come Predict the 2017 Standings
I know that I’m in the middle of another polling project. It’s not going to be an offseason full of polling projects. But this is a different idea, and it’s a little time-sensitive. So here we are!
I wanted to get this out and going before the offseason moves are really underway. We have already seen some minor transactions, but, there’s nothing I can do about that. Your assignment here is simple: For as many teams as you feel comfortable with, predict a 2017 win total. I do not mean predict a 2017 win total, based on how rosters are constructed today. I want you to predict a 2017 win total, based on what you think the rosters are going to look like. Think the White Sox, for example, are going to tear it all down? Vote accordingly. Think they’ll instead try to compete one more time? Vote accordingly! Think of this as a blended offseason prediction and regular-season prediction. Obviously we can’t predict all the moves teams are going to make, but it’s mostly easy to see what teams want to do. Let that drive you.
Thank you in advance for your participation. I’m running this for two reasons. One, it’ll just be fun to analyze in the short-term. But, two, it’ll also be fun to analyze at the end of spring training next March, when I ask you to predict the standings again. Then we’ll get to see who had the craziest offseasons, and who did what they were expected to do. For so many reasons, I can’t wait until spring. Thanks again, and have fun speculating!
To proceed directly to a specific team poll, click on the team’s name below.
Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Yankees
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Angels
Astros
Athletics
Blue Jays
Braves
Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants
Indians
Mariners
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Phillies
Pirates
Rangers
Rays
Red Sox
Reds
Rockies
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Yankees
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
As of this post, the only teams with any votes for 105+ are the Angels (likely because they’re first), the Cubs, and the Yankees.
From what I can tell, there appears to be an extraordinary number of playoff contenders next year based on these results.
I feel we’re likely to see more imperfect contenders – like the Rangers, Orioles, Jays, Mariners, Pirates, even Mets – wind up as losing teams by the deadline than surprise teams (maybe the Rockies or Twins?) pushing into contention.
Are we looking at different results? Without spending too much time on this, 84 or fewer wins = noncontenders and 85 or more wins = contenders. Currently, 18 teams are most commonly predicted to win 84 or fewer games, i.e. out of playoff contention. 12 teams are most commonly predicted to win 85 or more games, i.e. in playoff contention. If anything, these results are understating the number of playoff contenders.
It would have been a lot easier to cast my votes if this were organized on a division basis, namely I most familiar with the teams in the same division as my team. Otherwise I click, vote, scroll back to top, click vote blah blah, whereas if they were all contiguous it’d be a lot simpler
Hey Jeff, can you run these again right before Spring Training? It’d fun to see how the predictions are shaped by the offseason.
This could be the first year in a while where the White Sox don’t convince everyone they will compete. It could also be the first year in a while where the Orioles DO convince anyone that they can compete.
Thank you Jeff for the attempt, but frankly I don’t have faith in polls anymore
Something tells me these polls will come out much closer to reality than the Presidential or Brexit ones.
If there is one thing I know for sure today, polling a bunch of people is a reliable way of predicting outcomes. I voted, of course.
Even if this is not too well organized, I don’t care because it is such a great day for the USA.
Hot take incoming!
The Marlins don’t have enough pitching. They should consider an all-out rebuild.
They are kind of like the White Sox – good core of cheap, young assets that nobody ever wants to trade, but not strong enough to contend.
Hey Jeff,
Perhaps it would only be of interest to few, but it would be interesting to conduct these polls at several points during the year (including in season) to get a public opinion rolling average. A lot of time public sentiment blows in the breeze and is forgotten. It would be great to quantify how lousy our predicting abilities are!
Red Sox – Indians – Astros — Yankees/Rangers
Nationals – Cubs – Dodgers — Mets/Giants
Red Sox – Indians – Rangers – Astros/Mariners
Nationals – Cubs – Dodgers – Mets/Rockies
Why, on these polls and on the player projection pages, is the break for each bucket right on the number I want to pick?
My takes were so #mild.
None of my guesses were not in the top 3 buckets.
Mine too. Actually for the 20 teams I predicted, 12 matched the #1 popular answer, 6 matched the second most popular answer, and 2 matched the third. I guess if I were playing Family Feud, I would have done well.
I haven’t decided if I’m going to go through and choose “Under 65” for every team, or “105 or more” for every team, but I’m definitely going to do one or the other. Some men just like to watch the world burn, I guess, which is why we can’t have nice things.
I don’t really understand why people are so high on the Yankees? Like they’re obviously headed in a very exciting direction, but I’m not sure they’re a playoff team next year, too many questions in the rotation, without great fixes in this year’s FA. Maybe the trade for some proven starters, I guess?