Coming to Terms with Carlos Carrasco’s Trade Value
The rumors began back in July, and they’ve persisted since. “Cleveland has been willing to listen on pitching, particularly Carlos Carrasco,” read Jeff Passan’s tweet. That came a week before the July 31 trade deadline, and during that week, Carrasco was linked strongly to the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Cubs and Red Sox. The deadline came and went, and Carrasco remained an Indian, yet the rumors haven’t stopped.
On October 11, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo wrote “There’s no question the Indians are going to deal a starting pitcher for a hitter this offseason,” invoking the names of both Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Two weeks later, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times expected the Cubs to reengage the Carrasco talks over the offseason. Then, earlier this week, ESPN’s Buster Olney reignited the Carrasco rumor storm by bringing to light a Carrasco for Brandon Belt and Joe Panik framework that was discussed, but ultimately shot down by the Giants.
“…[that] might seem outrageous until you place the value of a pitcher like Carrasco — more to the point, the value of his contract — in an era in which No. 4-type starters like J.A. Happ are getting $12 million a year in multiyear deals.”
Say, what’s Carrasco worth, anyway? There’s no definitive answer, of course — everyone’s got their own opinions. But the best you can do is use all the information at your disposal and figure out a ballpark estimate.
The quick backstory: back in 2007, Carrasco was the top prospect in the Phillies organization, and a top-50 prospect in all of baseball. He was always expected to be very good. In 2009, he was the key piece in the Cliff Lee trade, except Carrasco struggled for a few years before learning he had a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery which caused him to miss the 2012 season. After the surgery, it took him some time to regain his stuff, but in August of last year, Carrasco rejoined the Indians rotation.
Since then, Carrasco has made 40 starts with a 2.99 ERA and a 2.54 FIP. That’s an ERA- of 75, which would rank 12th in baseball over the last two years, between David Price and Max Scherzer. That’s a FIP- of 66, which would rank third in baseball over the last two years, between Jake Arrieta and Chris Sale.
Plenty of people consider Carrasco’s teammate, Corey Kluber, to be one of the 10 or so best pitchers in baseball, based on his last two seasons. I’m not sure Kluber’s even been the best pitcher on his own team:
| Name | GS | IP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP |
| Corey Kluber | 66 | 457.2 | 28.0% | 5.2% | 0.71 | 45.3% | 2.95 | 2.65 |
| Carlos Carrasco* | 40 | 252.2 | 29.6% | 5.4% | 0.71 | 50.6% | 2.99 | 2.54 |
Teams don’t acquire past performance, though. They acquire future performance. What do the forecasts say? Using the Steamer projections we host here at the site, and using a 50/50 split of FIP-WAR and RA9-WAR, these are the 10 best pitchers in baseball, by the projections:
- Clayton Kershaw, 7.5 projected WAR
- Chris Sale, 6.0
- Max Scherzer, 5.8
- David Price, 5.6
- Corey Kluber, 5.3
- Dallas Keuchel, 5.0
- Jake Arrieta, 4.9
- Jose Fernandez, 4.8
- Carlos Carrasco, 4.8
- Felix Hernandez, 4.6
Any way you slice it — past performance, future performance, ERA, FIP — Carrasco is seen as one of the very best pitchers in baseball. Unquestionably, Carrasco has pitched like an ace, and he’s expected to continue pitching like an ace.
Every team wants an ace, and so obviously teams would be interested in Carrasco, especially when you think about his contract. Carrasco is an ace, but he won’t be paid like one. Last offseason, the Indians signed Carrasco to an extension that keeps him under team control through 2020 with an AAV of around $7.5 million per year. Earlier today, Mike Pelfrey signed a contract with the Tigers, and he’ll out-earn Carrasco over the next two years by $5 million. That’s how friendly Carrasco’s contract is.
So, wait. The Indians have one of the best pitchers in baseball on one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball. Why would they want to trade him? It’s not that they want to trade Carrasco, but that they would. Surely, the Indians would be just fine with holding on to Carrasco and entering next season with a top-five rotation in the game. But no player should be absolutely untouchable. If president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti can get a haul for Carrasco that he feels unquestionably makes his team better, he’ll do it. Hence, the listening of offers. My feeling has been that if Antonetti gets what he perceives to be a completely fair and just offer for Carrasco, it won’t be enough. That a deal will only get done if the Indians are confident they’re winning the trade.
Which is why you just don’t see guys of Carrasco’s profile get traded very often. When you take the risk of dealing a player of Carrasco’s caliber, fair isn’t enough. You need to be blown away. And being blown away typically requires one too many parts than your trading partner is comfortable letting go.
The only comp in recent memory that I could think of was Josh Donaldson, who met the Carrasco trifecta of a young, cost-controlled, and already a star. The Donaldson trade is proof that sometimes, deals of this magnitude can get done, but it should probably be viewed as the exception, and not the rule.
But let’s say a deal does get done. It might be unlikely, but let’s pretend, because that’s what people love to do in the offseason. What does a Carrasco deal look like? The most important thing is that the Indians plan to contend in the present, and their window looks to be open for at least a couple more years. That means it can’t be a typical star-for-prospects swap. Young, quality major league talent would have to be coming back to Cleveland.
The interesting thing about Cleveland is, for a team with as good of a core as Carrasco, Kluber, Salazar, Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes are, they sure have a lot of holes. This is a team that has the top-end talent to contend, but also currently has Abraham Almonte in center field, likely some sort of Giovanny Urshela/Jose Ramirez timeshare at third base, an opening at either first base or DH, depending where Carlos Santana spends his time, and a right fielder in Lonnie Chisenhall who probably shouldn’t play against lefties. For all the good that’s on the Indians roster, they could use a number of upgrades. Maybe you think moving Carrasco to improve the offense is a robbing Peter to pay Paul scenario for Cleveland. In a one-for-one swap, that might be true, but turning Carrasco (or Salazar) into drastic upgrades at multiple positions could make sense given the roster construction, a line of thinking shared by the Indians based on the reported Belt and Panik proposal.
The problem is that the Blue Jays were considered the frontrunners in the Carrasco talks at the deadline, but the best young, major league-ready talent they could offer is Kevin Pillar, and that wouldn’t be a high enough starting point. The Red Sox now have their ace and don’t seem like they’re looking to make any more big moves. If the Dodgers are unable to resign Zack Greinke, they become an interesting case, as they could deal Yasiel Puig for Carrasco to replace Greinke and instead spend their money on one of several top-tier free agent outfielders. But Puig is coming off a down year, comes with two fewer years of team control and off-the-field baggage that could lower his value, and can opt-in to arbitration after 2016, which could make his team-friendly contract a bit pricier and less team-friendly. He still has massive trade value, and the Indians would surely be interested, but I’m not sure Puig alone would be enough for the Indians to let go of Carrasco, and I’m less sure what else would make a Puig-centric package work.
The team I keep coming back to is the Cubs. Clearly, they’ve expressed a desire in adding another top-flight starter to their rotation, and their spare parts happen to align with Cleveland’s needs. The logical starting point would be Jorge Soler, who in many ways is Puig-lite. Soler on his own wouldn’t be enough, but the Indians have shown interest in Javier Baez, who’s also expendable in Chicago and could shore up the Indians’ third base situation. Surely, the Cubs would be reluctant to deal a combined 11 years of team control between two of their top under-25 position players, and it’s a steep price to pay. But if Soler were in Cleveland, Lonnie Chisenhall would become expendable, and the Cubs reportedly “covet” Chisenhall as he could help drastically improve their outfield defense. I’m sure there would need to be more to it — it’s never that easy — but a Carrasco/Chisenhall for Soler/Baez framework seems to make some sense for both sides.
The problem with these deals is that the Cubs don’t want to give up Jorge Soler and Javier Baez. The Indians aren’t itching to give up Carlos Carrasco. In all likelihood, Carrasco stays put, the Indians keep what is arguably the best trio of pitchers in baseball together, and they plug their holes elsewhere with bandaids. Teams put such a high price on their own elite players and trade chips that it’s hard for a front office to ever get in return what it feels is appropriate value. That’s why there have been rumors for nearly five months now without a deal, and here we are, talking about more rumors.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
I’ve never understood the fascination with Baez. IMHO, if I’m trading one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball – one controlled at a fraction of what FA SP’s get – I’m asking for Soler, Torres and a lottery ticket like Junior Marte.
Some might say that’s asking too much, but I would counter “how much do you think Houston wants for Keuchel? Or Miami for Fernandez?”
I think most every team would much prefer Baez to Torres by a wide margin. Coming from a Cubs fan who is very high on Soler, I don’t think they would bat an eye at a Soler and Torres package for Carrasco even if it had to include another top 10 prospect.
Baez is very risky but his plus defense anywhere on the infield (metrics don’t support it but the samples are small enough that I trust scouting here) and good baserunning provides some floor and his ceiling is astronomical. He is also major league ready and comes with, I believe, the full 6 years of control remaining.
Any normal MLB team would want Javier Baez.
The Cubs offered both Baez and Castro for Cole Hamels and never even got a discussion from it.
J=ohn M=iddleton hates young, five-tool Latino players who can get to free agency by age 28. Doesn’t want anything to do with them.
J=ohn M=iddleton had his people preach to a teenage Jimmy Rollins that he should hit the ball on the ground and run hard to 1B. The Phillies were terrified of Rollins when he showed HR pop in MLB in his very early twenties. They immediately threw their arm around Jimmy and started whispering into his ear about becoming a “lifetime Phillies player”. The Phillies dropped a four year deal on Jimmy immediately and kept preaching their love for him and crossing their fingers that Jimmy wouldn’t go Free Market on them.
Google: Kevin Maitan FREE_AEC
Read how J=ohn M=iddleton won’t pay Kevin Maitan and why.
HE’S BACK!
I’m not real high on Baez either, personally, but the Indians have reportedly shown interest, and all that ultimately matters is the team’s evaluation. The big thing though is just that he’s major league ready. If Carrasco goes anywhere, it’s because they get multiple pieces that will contribute on Opening Day.
I hate the Steamer projections, simple regression analysis is very flawed imo.
I agree with the basic premise of this article, but I do think that Baez is a very significant piece in a potential deal for Carrasco. Baez made significant improvements at the plate this year while looking impressive on the field and headsy on the bases. His power is massive, might be the most exciting hitter on the Cubs, which obviously says a lot.
I don’t think the Cubs will trade Baez however, he is playing CF in Winter ball and is slated to become the Cubs version of Zobrist.
Why not something from Boston? He’d look good beside Price. Betts seems a little too high a price for Carrasco, but there a good young players in Boston.
Mostly because Dombrowski has indicated that they’re done with major moves. But also because, like the Blue Jays, I don’t think a JBJ + Castillo starting point is high enough to even get their foot in the door, and Betts and Bogaerts don’t seem like they’re going anywhere.
What about the multiple high-end prospects the Red Sox still have? Sure, they love Moncada, they love Devers, they love Benintendi, but for an elite, inexpensive, controllable starting pitcher, I don’t think any of them are off-limits. And surely one or more of them as a starting point would get their foot in the door.
Devers and Owens surely gets the conversation started.
No and no. Indians are looking to contend now. If Carrasco’s traded, prospects aren’t going to be the centerpiece of a trade.
Says you. Owens is MLB ready and if you think the Indians aren’t interested in top 50 prospects, you’re a lot dumber than they are.
Says everyone with an IQ above that of a dead fish. Which obviously excludes you. Would the Indians take a prospect in a trade for Carrasco? Sure, but NOT as the centerpiece. Again, they want to contend NOW and are incredibly risk averse.
If you trust Carrasco’s health then I don’t think Betts does seem too high. And Cleveland would obviously have a ton of interest, with CF as one of their biggest holes.
But health is a question even without TJS. And the Sox OF is a star, two guys with question marks and a platoon/4th OF type, while they’d be adding Carrasco to a position group where they already have an excess of average-ish players. Even if the trade is roughly equal value, it doesn’t do much to fix a problem and definitely does create one elsewhere. And then Betts is controlled for the same amount of time, but perhaps at slightly lower cost since those are all arb years whereas Carrasco’s contract buys out 3 free agent years and contains escalators.
If the Red Sox wouldn’t trade Betts for Hamels last year when Betts was still a bit of an unknown, then there’s no way they’d trade Betts for Carrasco this year. Betts is the type of everyday player to build a team around.
Doesn’t this article demonstrate pretty well that Carrasco is better than Hamels, and on a much more team-friendly deal? The Indians would laugh and hang up the phone if offered Hamels for Carrasco.
Huh???
Carrasco is a better pitcher than Hamels at a fraction of the cost.
It is not a stretch to say that when their contracts are considered, Carrasco now is worth over $100 Million MORE than Hamels was a year ago.
Quick math:
Hamels making ~$110M over the next 5 years (since we’re looking at his value as of last year, that’s 2015-2019), and has a value of, say, $140M. Net value of $30M or so.
Carrasco making $37.5M over the next 5 years, and has a value of, I don’t know, $180M? Net value of $140M or so.
No, I don’t think that Carrasco would get a $180M/5 year contract of course, but he would certainly get a bigger deal over 5 years than Hamels would.
And he is making $70 Million LESS over the next 5 years.
I don’t have any clue how you can compare the two.
Ok I get the fact that carrasco has a cheaper contract so you can’t just compare the 2 on ability.
The point is betts is tremendously more valuable then he was a year ago because he was not proven at the major league level. And a year ago they wouldn’t trade him for hamels.
I think carrasco is a bit overrated because he doesn’t have a long track record of health and does tend to get bombed every few starts. Wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t keep up his current level of performance going forward. But everyone is going to have their opinion on that. Betts is as sure a bet, pun intended, as you can get.
It isn’t that Carrasco isn’t worth Betts. He is. It’s that Boston doesn’t want that trade even if it’s worth it. They love Betts.
David Peralta + Aaron Blair to CLE for Carrasco? What about something built around Tomas (Dbacks eat money, of course)?
No.
Still crossing my fingers that somehow Pillar plus whatever turns into Carrasco, but the only way I see that happening is if the Indians are somehow in love with Aaron Sanchez. After getting Donaldson last year it’s been really hard not to believe that anything is possible.
I understand that pitchers shoulder more risk than position players, so in theory if the Indians could obtain a position player that provides similar value, they should do that. And while this is shown to be true in the free agent market where position players get larger deals historically, is it true in the trade market?
It seems like pitchers really only move when they are nearing free agency. I kind of get the feeling that pitchers are so unpredictable, and have such a high risk for injury, that if you have one, and everything is going well, those teams are reluctant to rock the boat because they would be required to replace that SP with someone who’s performance going forward also shoulders that same risk.
That’s the feeling I get when people talking about trying to trade for Sonny Gray, or Chris Sale, or Carlos Carrasco, or Jose Fernandez or any other elite SP that isn’t near free agency. The argument is always that they should take the position player because of reduced risk, but I feel like we don’t see that all that often. Pitching just seems to be so fickle and hard to come by that when you have it under control for 3+ seasons, I wonder if a team would really prefer not to move them, even if on paper it makes more sense.
In a vacuum that is probably true at least to some degree. But every team needs 5 starting pitchers and getting a guy that’s a legitimate #1-2 will fit into every team’s roster. So while they might like to trade for position players somebody still has to throw those innings and the competition for the talent is always much larger.
Didn’t the Jays offer pretty well the entire farm system for Carrasco or something at the deadline and still got turned down?
Then Sharpiro admonishes Anthopolous for trading away all the prospects… that Sharpiro himself could have had at that same deadline…
I’m pretty sure it was Hoffman, Norris and one of Alford/Pompey.
Dang, that’s a pretty big package to turn down. I suppose they would want another bat in there
August,
If I ape your Zimmermann value calculation from a few days ago, I come up with something on the order of $160M in surplus contract value for Carrasco.
I’m not sure Soler and Baez are enough.
+1
I really like Soler and I’m okay with Baez, but it’s hard not to notice how much risk there is in those two players. Neither has done much at the MLB level (sure, only 800 PA between them) and there are enough questions about their skillsets to be worried that you’d miss on both. I’d think the Cubs would have to include another piece or two along the lines of Alcantara or Candelario or Almora depending on what Cleveland wants.
Edwards.
Soler, Baez, Edwards might do it.
Cleveland’s pitching is top heavy and there isn’t much behind the top six. So if Carrasco were traded they would need a pitcher with some potential back.
After the Lackey deal, the Cubs don’t have to get Carrasco, anyway.
I still think he stays put.
If the Indians trade a pitcher it is more likely one of the backenders for a lesser outfielder with power. Ozuna for center makes the most sense. Then they could add a platoon partner for Chisenhall and wait to see if Ushela’s bat arrives. (His numbers in the high minors were adequate to good.)
durability is a skill though. Kluber has been an absolute workhorse, so even while Carrasco has similar rate stats, the fact that Kluber has 200 more innings pitched in the last two years makes him massively more valuable.
Most of that gap is due to Carrasco’s long stint in the pen in 2014 (after three iffy April starts), not any real durability issues. But for sure, the injury risk is very real.
Pillar for Carrasco probably isn’t that far off in a vacuum, given he is younger and much cheaper and they are coming off seasons of similar quality, but Cleveland seems to want a bat more than a glove, and even if you think there’s a little more projection left in Pillar’s bat, he’s probably not ever going to be above average in that respect.
Carlos Carrasco for Matt Kemp, I’m not sure the Padres would do this but given that Shields maybe a goner it makes sense for both sides, Kemp was one of the few 100+ RBI men last year.
Awesome.
k
You seriously think a 31-year old Kemp with his injury history and terrible contract (4 years left w/AAV of $18.25 million) and a grand total of 2.0 WAR over the past 3 seasons has equal worth to a 28-year old ace-type pitcher signed to a ridiculously reasonable contract (5 years left w/AAV of $7.5 million) and who put a total of 4.8 WAR over the last 2 seasons alone? And you’re “not sure if SD would do this”? SD would throw a party if through some miracle they managed to dump Kemp’s albatross contract, but you on the other hand think he’s somehow worth…Carrasco? How did you possibly come up with a such a fucked-up opinion? Holy shit this is one of the dumbest opinions I’ve ever seen.
98% sure that was a joke, Biff. You can relax.
Alright, here is a crazy scenario: Astros send George Springer, Jake Marisnick, Tyler White and Evan Gattis to the Indians for Carlos Corrasco and Carlos Santana. Indians get a star right fielder, an elite defender at CF, and a right handed power hitter to DH for them, and one of the best minor league hitters in MiLB, while the Astros get a TOR to go with Keuchel and McHugh, as well as help at 1st base and left handed power and OBP. Then, the Astros could pursue someone like Dexter Fowler or even shoot for the likes of Juston Upton or Alex Gordon to replace Springer. Is that crazy?
yes
Not an Indians fan and I’d hang up on you if you called with that offer.
For the Astros to even get in on Carrasco, think less ‘Jake Marisnick’ and more ‘Jose Altuve.’ The problem? The Indians already have a very comparable player in Jason Kipnis. Sure, he’s older and more expensive than Altuve, but he has the benefit of already being on the roster.
The only other chips they really have for a deal like this are Correa and Keuchel. Houston (rightly) wouldn’t consider the former, and the latter doesn’t make any sense in the context of the trade. You may be able to build something around Springer, but there’s nothing else to package him with, unless you’re willing to throw in someone like McCullers, and even then I don’t think Cleveland thinks very long about it before saying no.
Forget Tyler White, by the way. He’s a first base prospect who won’t get an opportunity at first base with the Astros despite being blocked by no one. Literally. They just non-tendered Chris Carter and White is STILL fighting to be in the top three on the organizational depth chart.
Huh? They NT Carter to give White a shot. They have 4 guys for 3 spots; Gattis, Valbuena’s, Duffy and White for 1B, 3B, DH. Reed begins the year in AAA.
Valbuena and Duffy split time at 3B unless Duffy wins the job outright early in the year.
White gets 4 games out of 6 at 1B a week, Duffy gets 2 games.
Gattis gets 5 games at DH, White gets one.
This basically gives everyone an off day during the week. It also gives Houston flexibility with the rookies and if they are good enough to play in the Show. If Duffy sucks Valbuena gets more ABs, if White sucks Duffy moves over to 1B. The probability they both suck is marginal. If they both excel then they can move Gattis when Reed is ready in AAA.
Obviously the above isn’t going to happen exactly, but I believe it’s what they are – or should be – thinking. Share the at bats to minimize risk and maximize cheap assets.
The Astros need guys that can make contact and get on base and both White and Duffy have demonstrated this at every stop along the way. If they do well in ST they’ll be on the Opening Day roster.
Tyler White isn’t on the 40-man roster. They NT Carter to give Singleton a shot.
Beyond the health questions, there is also the fact that prior to 2014 Carlos Carrasco was not a good major league pitcher. Because of his last 317.2 innings we believe that he will be well above average next season and presumably beyond, yet the previous 238.1 did occur. It is natural to worry that he might not sustain his current level of performance even though all the metrics look very strong.
The projections know those 238.1 innings occurred. And his career peripherals are still pretty darn awesome, if not quite elite.
Why is that table Kluber’s entire season of 2014 but only Carrasco’s 2/3 of August +September?
Because he was in the bullpen until august.
So the table lists Carrasco the starter, the Carrasco the reliever, for fairness.
His bullpen numbers were ridiculous.
I’m saying why not just compare Kluber’s numbers over the same set of starts
Ah.
Probably because Kluber had a few stinkers early in 2015 and a lot of bad luck the rest of the year and if you only do August 2014 to the present Carrasco looks much better than Kluber. Which he very likely isn’t. Their performance is comparable but how they get there is different.
Over the next 3 years you probably won’t see much difference in net results but odds are Kluber will sustain his performance for longer. Top end velocity isn’t as critical to Kluber as Carrasco.
Which is why there is no talk to trying to pry Kluber away.
I like the piece, the conception, the strong data, the writing…but “Puig is not enough for Carrasco” is where you lost me. Doesn’t pass the smell test. Keep in mind, I’ve never been high on Puig. Keep in mind, I’m really high on ALL Cleveland pitching. But sorry, if LA called on Carrasco offering Puig, that’s a done deal. They won’t & it wouldn’t be enough for LA if Cleveland made the call.
-A Baseball First, Red Sox 1a Fan
What would the Indians motivation be to swap Carrasco for Puig? Seems about as zero sum game as you can get, equally downgrading the pitching and upgrading hitting. Since the Indians two top prospects are both outfielders about a year away it actually doesn’t make a lot of sense from Cleveland’s perspective to do that deal, even if they think Puig is going to be a 5-WAR player again. They might be open to Salazar for Puig
If the Indians want to trade for major league talent, it’s going to be close to zero sum. Nobody is going to give up a better position player to take on a pitcher and the extra risk of injury.
“But sorry, if LA called on Carrasco offering Puig, that’s a done deal.”
A convincing argument if ever there was one.
The dozens of people (Cleveland fans much!?) and this author throwing out complete speculation with no credible reports that any of these deals is/was/could ever be on the table are wishing for a FBB Christmas to ignite their frozen dreams. And you want to roast me for not offering an argument based on data?
This entire list of comments is a bunch of roto fanboys jerking their pricks to Fagerstroms FBB fantasy. Have you all been asleep the last week, have any of you seen what’s happened to the SP market? This type of FBB bullshit you’re all spewing has nothing to do with REAL MLB operations. This isn’t research, it’s flat out conjecture: Fagerstrom has made a little exercise in supposition, saying “Look, when you parse the data on Carrasco in this one particular light, he looks really good! CLE should be able to get a lot for him.” Never mind that there’s no evidence that anyone around the league is interested… Never mind that he’s 29 and been up & down & injured for 5 years, and there’s two other SP’s on CLE’s roster that REAL MLB teams would be knocking down the door for in this SP market much more than Carrasco; yeah the asking price would be higher on Kluber or Salazar, but they are inarguably worth it!
Fagerstrom lights your FBB-in-December fuse & you all jump off the deep end with your roto propositions like this is some kind of Ottoneu forum. “Cubs will send us this!…Dodgers should send us that!”
Meanwhile the Real World of MLB baseball rolls on & CLE doesn’t get a call on any of their pitchers because A)They’re not really interested in moving the one commodity that absolutely spiked in value last week: SP’s that other teams ACTUALLY want (read: Kluber/Salazar), or B) other teams have already looked at this data well before Fagerstrom & they will instead call on Salazar, who actually has upside worthy of the current market price, or Kluber, who actually has hardware to show how good he is.
Come on Fanboys, stop playing yourselves into a fantasy wet dream: the Cubs, Sox, & Dodgers all have the assets to instantly poach premium SP talent from Cleveland if they really want to, not just including, but ESPECIALLY Carrasco. But guess what? No matter how much SP value has spiked, it can’t compete with the value of young controllable position player talent. Which is why all these teams that need SP’s are paying for it on the open market, paying the greatest pitcher salaries in history, and yet gripping those young fielders with white-knuckles when teams like Cleveland, Atlanta, and Baltimore come calling. And it’s also why CLE’s phone won’t be ringing over a 29 year old who’s been around for years, & has yet to shed the “prospect” label.
But hey, like I said, I’m the one with the weak data, lacking any evidence at all…roast away Indian Fanboys, I’ll be in the real world admiring Real GM maneuvers, not this MLB 16 Fantasy Mode bullshit.
Well, I’m glad we could agree to disagree like reasonable mature adults.
I like that it took one off-hand remark to make you feel “roasted” to the tune of a 500-word 4 AM defense.
I like it a lot.
Don’t flatter yourself Arc, I understand these might be tough concepts for you, but a)despite your mom’s little white lies to the contrary, the world doesn’t revolve around you: yours is one of dozens of “comments” here using non-sensical FBB trade logic; and b)the world still doesn’t revolve around you, there are 24 time zones in the world, not everyone on FG is in yours
No, absolutely not. By any measure Carrasco looks far more like a sure thing than Puig does going forward. I wouldn’t touch that deal if I were Cleveland.
Puig, Alex Wood, and Pedro Baez for Carrasco and Zach McAllister could form the framework for a deal.
I’ve been throwing the Puig-Carassco idea for a while….it makes sense. If we figure both are ~4WAR players. Both are owed ~$20M through 2018 while Carassco has two team options while Puig was two arb years. The Dodger then can pass on Grienke and sign Heyward because he will seemingly provide more value.
As an Indians fan, I was all for a Carrasco for Puig deal, but all this stupid stuff coming out about Puig’s issues off the field have to be a major red flag. They say the Indians have a very tight knit clubhouse. August even mentioned that there was not a single player who rubbed anyone else the wrong way. I think I would still do a Puig deal, but the FO may not be willing to take the chance.
Cleveland has never had issues with players off-the-field. Puig will be fine.
Puig is no Albert Belle.
He might be Milton Bradley. Him they dumped.
Puig alone won’t do it.
Want to throw Urias into the mix? Don’t think so.
The point of the article is that anybody wanting Carrasco needs to overpay, not dump a troublemaker.
You won’t get Urias, but if you can get Puig + a B prospect I think you consider it.
Right. No Urias. Which is why there won’t be a deal unless the Dodgers were to panic over losing Greinke.
Puig + a B prospect simply won’t do it.
Pollock + a B prospect might but the Dbacks aren’t doing that either.
Cleveland is not going to trade Carrasco on the cheap any more than Atlanta is going to give Shelby Miller away. The reason everybody wants Carrasco is the reason he won’t be traded: he can be the difference between “just missing” the playoffs and a deep run. And Cleveland needs to convince the fans they are serious about winning to get them back into the park. Current ownership’s commitment is seriously indoubt, these days.
Why would we give Carrasco a 50/50 split for ERA and FIP when we have 556 innings of data to show he is significantly worse than his FIP? For his career, his ERA is .63 points above his FIP. Even if we complete exclude his pre-2014 years based on the argument that he’s been a completely different pitcher since then, his ERA is .5 points above his FIP.
Prior to Lindor being called up, the Indians defense was historically bad.
That’s a huge part of it, but Carrasco is also much worse out of the stretch than the wind-up.
Carrasco only pitches out of the stretch
The projection systems see this same thing and are unmoved. Can’t find a good cite right now, but I’m pretty sure ERA-FIP differential is still very unreliable at only 600 ip. If considered at all, it probably needs to be regressed against a few thousand ip of league average (i.e., FIP-ERA parity).
Also, always good to decompose the differential between strand rate and ball-in-play results. According to the “Value” page on FGs, something like 40% of the gap between Carrasco’s RA9-WAR and regular fWAR is due to strand rate (i.e., sequencing), which is probably even less reliable than any ball-in-play issues.
All to say, there’s probably very little signal in that ERA-FIP differential.
I could see the Yankees offering Judge/Sanchez, Gardner, and Jagielo for Carrasco, but I’m not sure if that would get a deal done. Yankees say they’re out for young, cost-controlled pitching.
I was just thinking Yanks might be able to do something. I would think they have to send Bird. Bird and Judge would just be the start, but it might be the basis for a deal?
It might be. I know the Indians would want a starter back. So add Warren to the deal and maybe something else. Having Bird also opens up the possibility of the Indians trading Santana for something of value.
Yup. That trio is something they might consider: a proven number three starter and a couple of “maybe” bats. Risky but credible.
Agree with earlier comment that Betts ‘a player to build a team around’ Carrasco has to be over-rated at this juncture and the Indians are happy to hear all the possibilities but will not budge with that remaining ‘team friendly’ contract. Having said that I do not believe Carrasco with stay healthy in 2016 and if the pot gets sweet enough he will be gone and I would put the Yankees at the top of the list. Betts hah! No chance whatsoever! Kids got game.
“any way you slice it ?”
C’mon, this is based on ONE projection system for a guy with a career high 180 IP in a single season, and second highest total 134 the year before last. He has great peripherals, but sometimes people get way too carried away.
He’s going to be 29 in 2016 and still looking for his first 200 IP season. Thats just not yet in the realm of one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball yet. Lightening strikes like Jake Arrieta very rare.
Schwarber feels like a good fit as a component in the deal. He could fill the DH/1B slot. If the Cubs sent Kyle Hendricks and one of the medium floor prospects like McKinney or Almora AND ate Chris Johnson’s bad contract Dodgers style, it’s not impossible to squint and see surplus value on Cleveland’s side.
Another possible deal.
Except the Cubs picked up Lackey and now have a credible rotation without giving up major-league ready bats or Edwards.
Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, and Hendricks is a pretty solid staff.
Most of the teams than can afford to pay for Carrasco are stocking up without having to trade. They’ve all money enough to solve the problem.
Boston got Price.
Cubs got Lackey.
SF got the Shark.
Who’s left? Yankees? Dodgers?
Both can just throw money around and private will because the Yankees *need* Bird, Judge, and Warren (which is why Nova is on the block) and the Dodgers have holes aplenty. And there’s plenty of bulk pitching out there: it is high end pitching that is gone. Lots of threes and fours but ones and twos? Cueto turned down $120M. Kazimir is probably the next best option.
Maybe somebody will bite the bullet and pay for Miller or Carrasco.
But it’ll take more than troublemakers and hyped prospects.
Yeah Scwarber is the obvious match.
Wouldnt a cubs offer have to start with schwarber? Big bat without a position makes a ton of sense at 1b/dh in cleveland.
Cubs’ signing of Lackey somewhat puts a damper on this fit but I think the writer is pretty close about where the fit might lie. I also think the Cubs need whatever Baez is at this point. But I also think the Cubs have prospect depth to work from that Cleveland would covet. So my revamped suggestion is Soler, G Torres (Cubs’ #1 prospect) and Alcantara (horrible 2015 but still a likely super utility player) for Carrasco and Chisenhall.
You’re not even getting Carrasco for that package. Soler has potential but he’s still completely unproved. Alcantara? Why would the Indians want him? They already have a far better super utility player in Jose Ramirez. And Torres has limited value for a team that already has Lindor under team control through something like 2021.
Full disclosure- I m cubs die -hard. Is there anyway they get Carrsco without giving up Soler or Schwarber? Something like Baez/Vogelbach/Villanueva/ almora/ Hammel? Is that even getting close or no?
Baez gives them an everyday 3rd (or CF?), Vogelbach is probably going to get looks at 1b/DH this year/ Villanueva had a nice year at age 23/24 in AAA and could get 3B looks this year for the tribe/ Almora 1 year away from CF and Hammel and back end piece this year to cover some innings lost by Carrasco. Thoughts?
Forgot about Torres, sub Torres in for villanueva in my above proposed deal (or just add Torres). Hell, I could see Hendricks added instead of Hammel due to his youth and Cleveland has a big park, something good for a fly ball pitcher like Hendricks.
Pass the joint.
Schwarber/Baez/Hammel for Carrasco/Chisenhall
People trying to suggest trades need to keep in mind that the Indians are trying to contend now. They see themselves as having a window of opportunity in which they can contend. Partially this is because of having Francona as manager through 2018. And partially it’s because they have a number of young, talented players under control for the next 3-5 years – Kluber, Brantley, Gomes, Kipnis, etc. Since Carrasco is one of those young, talented players under team control, the only way you’re prying him away is if you give Cleveland pieces that help them contend now.
Carrasco + Salazar + chinsenhall / Nolan arenado +
It’s a lot but it’s a cost controlled power hitter. Imagine arenado and lindor. Would be interesting to see if arenado has less value for Cleveland because they already have lindor though. Not sure you maximize defensive value of each having them on same side of infield.
Well, it’s not like Tulo was a lead glove over at short all those years in Colorado, so no I don’t think you waste Arenado’s glove by having him next to Lindor.
Still, I don’t think the Rockies should be in the business of weakening an already weak offense to get pitching that might self-combust moving to Coors. Better for them to build a top-notch offensive lineup and not spend a lot of money or talent on their pitching staff.
Arenado is a guy you rebuild a team around and with the way the NL west is shaping up one top pitcher isn’t going to keep the Rockies in sight of the contenders even if they *keep* Arenado.
But if they’re foolish enough to offer Arenado for Carrasco I’m sure cleveland will happily throw in Johnson. That is exactly the kind of overpay they can sell to the ticket buyers.
Yasiel Puig + Scott Van Slyke + Carlos Frias + AJ Ellis + Liberatore/Avilan/Garcia/Hatcher + Alex Guerrero + Zach Lee/Chris Anderson + Cash.
This deal would give the Indians a starting RF/CF, a potential starting 1B/RF, a #4/5 SP to replace Carrasco, a solid bullpen arm, a decent catcher who could be packaged in a trade to fill one of their other holes, a prospect who could be a part of that trade, a back-up infielder who could be a starting 3B at some point and who could be a part of that trade, and cash to keep the Indians finances healthy.
OR
Some deal involving both Puig and Ethier with one of them playing likely poor defense in CF.
Anybody think either deal is possible? I think rumors are that the Indians are asking for both Joc Pederson and Jose De Leon but the Dodgers aren’t going for it.
Hell, the Dodgers can afford to give up both Anderson and Lee.
Well, Guerrero is useless in a trade because of his contract but the rest of them together might add up.
Kinda an over-reaction but it might fly with Hernandez instead of Puig. No need for cash, then. 😉
(Gotta understand: Puig is practically radioactive in today’s climate. Fighting with a woman? Nobody wants that press. Except maybe the Marlins.)
The only problem with Guerrero’s contract is that he can’t be sent down the minors. But if the Dodgers cover half it, what are the Indians paying for someone who can possibly be their starting 3B or a nice bat off the bench for the next 2 seasons? 3.5 million per year? If the Indians aren’t interested, there may be other teams that are, especially if he’s packaged with Ellis and both Anderson and Lee (obviously it would be the Dodgers’ responsibility, but theoretically).
I agree about Puig, but it’s difficult to ignore the talent. And I highly doubt the Dodgers trade Hernandez with Pederson’s struggles. Thanks for the feedback, though!
If Guerrero is traded he has the option to become a free agent at the end of that season (only cuts 1 season of control, but still detracts from any value).
The main problem with any deal for Carrasco is that, doing nothing and with all their warts, the Indians are an 85 win team (give or take a couple) is practically guaranteed (wildcard) contention.
Now, factor in they are playing in the AL central.
With the out of nowhere twins, whose pitching staff might just as easily go back to nowhere.
With the swiss cheese WhiteSox who could just as easily look at all those Carrasco offers and move Sale and Quintana to reboot ala Houston and Atlanta.
With the aging tigers, hoping for comebacks from Verlander, Sanchez, and Zimmerman. To say nothing of VMart and hoping Cabrera’s legs hold up.
With the Royals, who aren’t as young as many think, who lost two thirds of their outfield, second baseman and Cueto. (The latter might be a plus but they gutted the farm to get him.)
Most of the deals floated around would work if Carrasco were with the Phillies, the ChiSox, or the Brewers.
But the Indians are *already* contenders if all they do is go dumpster-diving for two OF and a 4A bat or two. Heck, even Johnson looked workable for a month or two.
To move Carrasco they need to get a clear no-doubt-about-it boost.
Not maybes.
Not dreams.
Not were-greats.
A prospect that will be great in 2018 but suck in 2016 isn’t going to do it.
Five replacement-level guys won’t do it because they can get replacement level without giving up Carrasco.
He’s not a salary dump.
He’s not a troublemaker.
He’s not a prospect.
He’s just a solid number two pitcher with number one stuff that practically has a second year player contract. And he’s in his prime today.
That kind of player doesn’t get traded these days, Donaldson deal notwithstanding.
Schwarber? Great career start. But those last couple of months?
Baez? Great defense, great power, but those stikeouts?
Pillier? Runs, fields? But the bat…
Puig, great in 2013, good in 2014, but 2015? And the baggage?
The indians of 2016 can’t afford buts.
Their window is now.
If the owner showed any interest in spending we wouldn’t even be having this fun bull session. He’d just go get Upton or Hayward or Davis. The money is there. The desire isn’t.
Most likely scenario is the Indians go dumpster diving.
Second most likely scenario is Bauer gets traded. That is one deal that even if it fails won’t get Antonetti run out of town.
There’s plenty of good pitchers that can be had for prospects, retreads, or troublemakers. Or money.
Sale. Quintana. Nova. Cueto. Maeda. One of the Mets’ kids. Or one of the Rays. Maybe even Fernandez.
It’s not as if Carrasco is the only pitcher available.
Finally someone who gets it!!!
The Indians are dealing from a position of strength, not weakness. Which means there’s no way they’ll trade Carrasco unless it’s a “Godfather offer”.
They went 81-80 last year with a pythagorean of 84-77. They’ve already eliminated some of the dead weight that was holding them back last year (Swisher, Bourn, and Aviles). They have several players that could bounce back or breakthrough such as Gomes, Santana, Chisenhall, Bauer, and Kluber. The #5 position in the rotation should be better this year. And of course they’ll have Lindor the whole year.
Personally, I think their best move is to embrace their “Inner Royal” and accept that their offense in mediocre while putting together an amazing defense and pitching staff.
They’re going to be without Brantley for a month or two so that washes out the extra Lindor production.
But still, a full year of even Ursela is better than half and Chisehall the rf is better than the 3b and better than what Bourne and Swisher produced.
And even if Carrasco regresses a bit (unlikely since he hasn’t done anything his skills don’t support, but possible; pitchers get hurt) they have Anderson and Tomlin for the full year.
Standing pat won’t make them better but it won’t make them worse.
Re-sign Raburn or pick up a platoon OF or two and they’ll be in the hunt. Maybe one of the AA/AAA kids blooms. Maybe Aguilar clicks or they get lucky with a minor league free agent.
They’re in the classic open window position, much like ’94; different skill mix but same competitive position. Main difference is Jacobs spent to bring in Murray, Martinez, and later Hershiser. Main difference is Dolan isn’t going to spend to boost the odds.
Oh, and they hopefully won’t lose Yan Gomes for most of the year. He’s not only their regular at C but also their biggest righty power threat. 2015 season went south when he got hurt.
Except there ARE “buts” to Carrasco.
–He looks really nice, but he’s only got 499 1/3 IP through 6 MLB seasons as a starter (1 season missed from TJS).
–His FIP looks great since his return to the rotation, ERA as well, but his career ERA in the rotation is still 4.31.
–He’s young for an available SP with high upside, but he’s also 28 (the guys we’re talking about sending are 22-25).
–He’s cheap for a player of his talents, but not as cheap as the guy’s we’re talking about (the expensive one is Soler, whose salary peaks at $4 million).
The guy’s put it together for 1.5 seasons, kind of. He’s still not gotten the ERA to meet up with the FIP though, given the ERA sat a full run higher above the FIP last season, and that’s with a fairly normalized BABIP (.304) and a team that accumulated the third-highest defensive value (using this site’s numbers). He allowed quite a bit of hard contact (27%) and didn’t have to much in the way of soft contact last season (17%). So, he’s arguably got less to grow than the guys we’re talking about here, and less time to do it.
He’s going on 29. Yeah, his arm doesn’t have mileage, but how did being low-mileage go for Samardzija last season?
All of which is irrelevant. Even with all those buts, his WAR is top 20 over the past two seasons by both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. He’s on an incredibly team friendly contract for the next 3-5 years. And he’s on a low-budget team that highly values players on teams friendly contracts since it allows them to spend their limited resources elsewhere. And since the Indians are looking to win now, there’s incredible risk to them in giving up proven talent for unproven talent. Which is why Cleveland has very little incentive to trade him.
Still think the Cards could get involved with a Grichuk/Tim Cooney/Matt Adams type offer.
Last I heard pitching was the Cards’ strength and the OF was the area of concern. Which is why their top priority is Hayward. They need Grishuk. And Adams is looking like a lefty platoon guy. Problem there is what the Indians need is *righty* power.
Two great points above.
1. Schwarber seems like the ideal AL trade chip and I’m a huge Cubs fan and huge fan of him. He could give an AL manager, not only a big bat, but some unique versatility.
2. Indians are dealing from strength, not weakness like the Phillies. Will take a combo of a “right now” player, “right now or very close” prospect, and more in theory.
Yeah, Schwarber is the key for a deal like this. Cleveland needs to “win” the trade, apparently, so a player who is more valuable to the Indians than his current club is the only way to make a deal that works for both sides. Obviously, even if you believe Schwarber _can_ play the field, he’s more valuable to a team that doesn’t need him to.
Schwarber + Soler/Baez + Hammels/Hendricks = Carrasco + 1-2 A-AA Prospect(s)?
The Cubs can get an equivalent return, this way, while the Indians win the overall 2016 WAR in the trade.
Wow. I mean, I know that Soler and Baez have huge potential upside, but that proposed trade is just bonkers. Carrasco, as you’ve aptly demonstrated, is likely to be a top pitcher going forward. Chisenhall is a demonstrated league average player. Soler is at this point in his career pretty much Avisail Garcia, but a year younger. Good raw skills, but terrible defense and no proven ability to hit in the show. Baez can bash, but he can also whiff with the best of them, and while his glove is okay, it’s hardly prodigious. I think these guys are some of the most overvalued players in baseball, and it seems that because Rizzo/Russell/Bryant are awesome, everyone is willing to overlook that Soler and Baez are massive question marks and Schwarber has no business on the defensive side of the ball. If Chicago could convert two guys who very well may never be above replacement level into Carrasco and Chisenhall, it would easily be one of the biggest coups in recent memory.
I wonder if a Carrasco + Roberto Perez for Gallo + Brinson/DeShields + Prince Fielder would work.