Contending Brewers Trade for Often Good Pitcher
The National League Wild Card race is nuts. Here’s the currently field of clubs competing for it, through Thursday’s games, with our playoff odds.
| Team | W | L | GB | Proj W | Proj L | ROS W% | Win Division | Win Wild Card | Make Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 75 | 59 | 0.5 | 88.8 | 73.2 | .494 | 4.1% | 63.0% | 67.3% |
| Brewers | 75 | 60 | 0 | 88.7 | 73.3 | .508 | 4.5% | 61.8% | 66.4% |
| Rockies | 72 | 61 | 2 | 86.2 | 75.8 | .491 | 14.6% | 14.7% | 29.4% |
| Dodgers | 72 | 62 | 2.5 | 89.2 | 72.8 | .616 | 56.4% | 17.4% | 73.8% |
| Phillies | 71 | 62 | 3 | 86.2 | 75.8 | .525 | 35.3% | 6.2% | 41.6% |
That’s just nuts! In the American League, the next closest Wild Card team, the Seattle Mariners, is 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. The next closest team behind them is the eight-games-out Rays. The next closest NL team, as you might notice, is significantly closer than that. The NL has eight teams whose odds of making the playoffs are over 25%; the AL, meanwhile, has just five such teams.
And so, with the NL’s relative nuttiness in mind, the Brewers traded this afternoon for left-handed pitcher Gio Gonzalez to bolster a rotation that is still in search of reinforcements after losing Jimmy Nelson to a shoulder injury before the season started and Brent Suter to Tommy John surgery in July. In return, the Nationals will reportedly receive two minor leaguers, though at the time of publication, those players’ identities are still unknown. As such, we’ll evaluate this trade in terms of Gonazalez’s merits for the Brewers and what the trade signals for the Nationals’ late-season tear-down. We should also note that the trade, famously a disruptive event, was remarkably convenient for Gonzalez, who — as a result of the two teams playing one another today — simply had to walk across the field to the Brewers’ dugout.
For the Nationals, the picture is a sad one. Trading Gonzalez is just the latest concession in a series of white flags that started with moving Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams, and Brandon Kintzler. Gonzalez was not the team’s only August deadline deal; they also traded reliever Ryan Madson to the Dodgers earlier today for minor league right-hander Andrew Istler. As Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported, the five players and glove-throwing former-Nationals reliever Shawn Kelley constitute a combined payroll savings of about $13 million. It’s money that could theoretically be used in free agency this offseason, though that will likely be cold comfort to Nationals fans who harbored much grander ambitions before the season started.
And what are the Brewers getting in Gonzalez? Here is how he fits into Milwaukee’s rotation. (Pitchers listed with season-to-date numbers.)
| Name | GS | IP | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoulys Chacin | 28 | 157.0 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 3.61 | 4.01 | 4.48 | 2.2 |
| Junior Guerra | 25 | 132.0 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 4.09 | 4.33 | 4.31 | 1.6 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 27 | 145.2 | 19.5% | 10.8% | 4.57 | 4.25 | 4.44 | 1.4 |
| Freddy Peralta | 14 | 73.2 | 30.0% | 12.9% | 4.40 | 3.85 | 4.34 | 1.2 |
| Wade Miley | 11 | 57.2 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 2.18 | 3.73 | 4.40 | 1.0 |
| Chase Anderson | 26 | 140.1 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 4.04 | 5.36 | 4.81 | 0.3 |
The way I’ve presented this is a touch disingenuous. Gonzalez has, over the course of his career, been a good pitcher. At times, he’s been a very good pitcher. At times this year, however, he’s also been a very bad pitcher. Through the end of May, he had a 2.10 ERA and a 3.11 FIP. He had a 23.2% strikeout rate. He was walking a bushel of batters (10.3%), but it hadn’t yet caught up to him. In the meantime, though, the results since have been decidedly more mixed. In June, his FIP climbed to 6.58; in July, it “improved” to 4.03, before climbing again in August to 5.20. His strikeout rate since May 31 has fallen to 16.8%, while is walk rate has climbed to 11.2%. In the midst of a largely disappointing season for the Nationals, Gonzalez was also disappointing.
But he’s been previously very good. He’s been previously very good this season, even, and the Brewers could use some previously very good. Look at that table above. It reveals a team in an absolutely nuts Wild Card race starting 2018 Wade Miley on purpose. That table has a lot of Chase Anderson. That table is headlined by Jhoulys Chacin. We don’t yet know what the Nationals received in the way of minor leaguers, and that could always color our opinion of this trade, but this has to be considered an improvement, even if Gonzalez settles somewhere closer to his July than his April or May, or his previously demonstrated talent. FIP, of course, endeavors to account for this, and single-season defensive numbers are fuzzy, but it can’t hurt that he’ll be going from the Nationals, at 21st in the league pretty bad defensive team by our metrics with -8.2 defensive WAR, to a really good defensive team in the Brewers, who’ve been fourth-best by our numbers and good for 31.2 WAR.
All of it matters. In a tight race, where the difference in the Brewers’ and Cardinals’ projected season win total is less than a game, any innings you can give to a competent pitcher who isn’t Wade Miley matter. The Brewers got better where they needed to.
If the playoffs started today, Milwaukee would be boarding a plane for St. Louis. By trading for Gonzalez, they’re hoping to shift the game about 370 miles north. At the very least, they tried to ensure that the rest of the nutty field couldn’t catch them.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Since the break, he’s got a 6.55 ERA/.362 wOBA/4.82 FIP/5.07 xFIP. In 5 of those 8 starts he’s given up at least 5 runs. 22 walks and 32 k’s in those 44 innings. A lot of what he’s done there’s no defense for at all.
I’m not confident that he’ll hold up physically, but I hope the Brewers ride Wade Miley as far as he’ll take them, given his recent performance. He’s been very good, and he’s pitched deep into games. Of course, it could all fall apart in a moment, which is why I really like this trade for Gio. Can’t have enough competent pitching. Even if he’s no all-star, he’ll soak up some innings.
so looking at Gio for the season…
he’s had 27 starts…
in 16 of those starts he’s given up 2 or fewer earned runs….
but then…. 7 times with at least 5 earned runs….
13 starts where he goes only 5 innings or less(with 6 of those starts with 4 or more earned runs). But then…. 7 starts with at least 7 innings(with 6 of those 7 starts with 2 or fewer earned runs)
very much a Jekyll/Hyde type of situation.
Meg post! I hope this wonderful sighting portends a wonderful holiday weekend.
Every single fangraphs article about free agents or veterans hypes the free agents and veterans.
The Tango-Cameron fangraphs used to point out how smart clubs should trade mediocre, paid veterans like Gonzalez- a 4th or 5th starter at present, ~4.50 ERA/FIP/xFIP profile.
This critical perspective has apparently been discarded. The ‘free agents are the new inefficiency’ fangraphs cheerleads every single deal for a name, click-bait style.
Stearns is very smart GM, so I’m sure this move makes sense – but on the surface it doesn’t look like a typical smart move. Gio projects for 0.3 WAR ros, with ERA/FIP projections around 4.50. Milwaukee has a number of healthy SPs who project better (Chacin, Guerra, Peralta), a handful who project similarly (Miley, Woodruff), and Zach Davies making his return imminently. Because a decent (not good, merely decent like Gonzalez), ~4.50-ish arm would have to go to AAA in order to roster Gonzalez, the improvement isn’t obvious. Peralta and Woodruff being sent to AAA projects to hurt Milwaukee as much as adding Gonzalez would help.
Since Stearns is smart, there must be another reason- perhaps he is managing Peralta’s IPs, or is looking to add lefties for a playoff pen, or has some other nuanced concern.
But praising this move (and every single move to add a veteran “name”), without even discussing the return, is a marketing decision- not analysis.
Meg obviously has some great, non-zippy analysis. Notice the line about how a contending team is intentionally starting 2018 Wade Miley. Fangraphs writers didn’t suddenly become incapable of fact-based analysis. But that is the only critical point in the article- other than to criticize sad Washington for losing Gio- the rest of the article operates oblivious to the fact that 2018 Gio Gonzelez is also not good. Miley was once very good as well, and this year has been better than Gio- neither are particularly good or terrible as 4/5 guys, just the same as a handful of others already with Milwaukee. Yet the new fangraphs for some reason praises all moves to acquire names- as part of the ‘mediocre known players are the new market inefficiency’ pivot.
If Miley had been added, it’s likely the move would be hyped by fangraphs with a similar fluff piece- finding the zippy, magical, marketing friendly take on every move that registers with casual fans.
Tango-Cameron style fangraphs focused a good deal of critical attention on teams that mistakenly bought a player on decline due to former performance. Meg says ‘the Brewers could use some used to be very good.’ But Miley used to be very good. The inconsistent logic doesn’t matter, it’s not serious content- it’s fluff content, not for grumps.
Yup there’s too much narrative and not enough analysis on fangraphs.
Fangraphs is no longer a disruptive, innovative, blog with emerging approaches. That was too grumpy for FOX/ESPN and industry partners.
Older, traditional fans will obviously still find fangraphs too analytical, but the reality is that the site has sold out its best quality (critical analysis) to instead converge towards standard sport coverage.
See the recent David Wright article- or the new emphasis on eye test scouting, or really any recent Travis/Rian/Craig/Meg work. Tons of narrative, almost no competent empirical insight.
It’s become a zippy, magical caricature of itself: its nuts!
Time is running out for the mid-season Meg Rowley DFA. It appears that the Fangraphs front office doesn’t mind paying for negative Writing Above Replacement value.
I don’t necessarily disagree with your big picture analysis, but I’ll offer a few Brewers-specific tidbits that maybe add some context to this trade.
1: Junior Guerra projects well, but suffered a forearm injury earlier this season, and since returning, has performed significantly worse than he had been earlier in the season.
2: Freddy Peralta, from what I can tell, is getting close to an innings limit, so he may not be a viable SP option moving forward.
3: Brandon Woodruff seems like a guy who *should* be more successful than he is, but has never been able to consistently pitch deep enough into games to hold down a rotation spot. He’s been seemingly cromulent enough as a bullpen arm, though.
Put all those question marks together with the seeming inevitability of Miley turning back into a pumpkin, and it certainly starts making more sense why the Brewers went out and got Gonzalez, who, if nothing else, will soak up innings. If he “regresses” towards anything resembling his career averages, the Brewers just picked up a stretch run asset.
I do think KJ Harrison being included in the trade (an organizational top 30 prospect) was a bit of an overpay, but this is a move that absolutely can be a positive for Milwaukee.
Where’s the hype for the free agent? A highly variable Gio is getting traded to a better defense in a salary dump. What he is traded for is unknown, so we can’t compare value. What else you want? Projections are right in front of you – click the name.
I would like some of these articles to make a prediction. Do you think Gio is going to revert (at least somewhat) to his previous better form or is he going to continue to be bad? It isn’t like there is a real cost to being wrong unless you are always wrong.
His rest-of-season projection ranges from 0.2 WAR to 0.4 WAR, so let’s say 0.3 WAR. He’s likely to provide 4/5 SP value, and like all older players, he is less likely to revert to good form from years ago than he is to pitch as he recently has. The player(s) he will replace/take IPs from (Woodruff/Peralta) is/are projected to have similar value, so the upgrade is hard to detect initially.
That sort of cut-and-dried analysis is what fangraphs is moving away from. Broader baseball audiences don’t like reading trades in the context of surplus value, where the team trading for later often does better (thus less media-friendly, click bait hype). Broader audiences prefer to see articles hype up the guy they have heard of, rather than the guy they haven’t (who isn’t even all that likely to play in the majors).
So now, every trade or free agent move gets the same reaction from the new fangraph writers:
“Club acquires player average Joe has heard of, fangraphs approves!”
Because as Rian wrote- fangraphs wants to cover fun baseball, a sport that is about “Aaron Judge hitting the ever loving shit out of the ball.” That’s the standard content now.
I read this article and I read the comments. I’m a Cubs fan and I’m interested to see if FanGraphs thinks this is a good move or a bad one. After reading all of it, my take is that the comments are too negative and you should stop reading FanGraphs if you don’t like the articles. I think this is a smart move for a team looking to make a leap in the playoffs and while Gio hasn’t been very good in the 2018 regular sesason, it’s a worthy risk for a team with a broken rotation. Everyone else should stop crapping on the article authors.
I think the observation that the article is a little light on statistical analysis is warranted and justified.
Without knowing the PTBNL, Meg is handcuffed in performing the normal analysis, though.
It might have been nice to evaluate the chance that Gio will be a positive contributor based on comparison with similar pitchers, and the likely performance of those being replaced.
Among all their starters, Peralta worries me the most. When he faces a team for the second time, he gets clobbered. Miley is not the one to worry about.
It is not the absence of the PTBNL that handcuffs Meg here: it is her inability (or refusal) to provide statistical or other insightful analysis.
Today I learned Wade Miley is still pitching. And pitching well!
No assessment of Gio’s awful postseason history? He cannot be trusted in October, as Nats fans can attest.