Contract Crowdsourcing 2011-12: Catchers
Today marks the beginning of our look at this offseason’s free-agent market. As noted previously, each day (more or less) we’ll have at least two posts dedicated to examining the free-agent market. The first post will serve as both a summary of the free agents at a particular position and each of those free agents’ likely future value. The second post will ask readers to vote on what they feel is the most likely arrangement of years and dollars for each free agent to receive.
Late this morning, Eno Sarris looked at the (pretty dim) free-agent class for catchers. Below are the three most valuable players, per Sarris’s estimation. For each player, we ask that your provide both the years he’ll most likely* receive and average annual salary.
*Note that this is different that what he OUGHT to receive.
Furthermore, the results are in from our experimental first poll, and the readership has spoken: Charlie Blackmon will likely finish with approximately a 45 WAR. Moreoever, readers felt that the author had consumed approximately five drinks. Wisdom of the Crowds, indeed.
Forms for submitting free-agent contract info after the jump.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
I have an issue: there’s no way to not vote for some of the candidates. Like, if I’m not familiar enough with one or two of the players, and don’t want to put anything, I can’t. You’re forcing me to make numbers up out of the blue.
Other issue…
I would like to be able to vote “0” years. As in, I think Jorge Posada retires/goes unsigned. If restricting us to choosing a contract term is by design, then whatever, but I think there are a sizable contingent of readers who think at least some of the 2011 free agent class (especially catchers, geez) will not be picked up.
My thoughts too. Zero years / zero dollars should definitely be options.
This seems reasonable. Will change for future polls.
No, do not change. Averaging in a bunch of zeroes really skew the results. Don’t you want to know what he will sign for, if he gets signed?
I’m with Dan. If you do add a “will not sign” option it shouldn’t be averaged into the results as $0M/0 years.
Just drop the zeros from the calculations and don’t count them as “votes.” If people honestly think that Posada won’t get a contract, they shouldn’t be forced to fill in something.
So, how many drinks was it, Carson? One of the great mysteries of life.
I agree with Y and JM on both of their points.
Also, Blackmon better get going… only 45.7 WAR to go! Seriously who is voting 50/60/70 WAR. Yikes.
There were a lot of people voting 150 career WAR, it appears. In fact the standard deviation was over 50 — i.e. higher than the average itself.
I have no idea how many drinks THOSE voters had, but it was likely a non-zero number.
Hahaha. Makes perfect sense then…
We commenters never promised to be sober.
I am almost certain that Carson’s average number of drinks per day is higher than Blackmon’s career WAR will be
Also, what about the possibility of a minor league deal for Posada with a chance for a job in the spring? He might be too proud to take it, but it might be all that’s out there.
Can we also guess the team? You got to guess the team, we want to guess the team too.
If 0 yr / 0 mil is an option, you should probably keep those votes separate from the overall average. Otherwise, if half of the people vote 1/4 for Posada, and the other half vote 0/0, it will appear as if the crowd believes Posada will sign for 2 mil and retire at the all-star break.
So, I see people have concerns about my 0 years/ $0 suggestion ruining averages. You are probably right.
So, Carson/interested parties, the way we could compromise is adding “Retires/Does Not Sign” as an option (like a check-box maybe, so the survey data are computed separately from the pull-down years/dollars option) so that we can still submit a ballot. Then the final tally might read something like:
Crowdsourcing-
Jorge Posada 1.8 yrs/ $1.2 million. 18% Retires/Does Not Sign.
Interested parties can easily factor in the %retirement.
+1.
Now if only Carson could figure out how to make that work in the polling utility.
Or what if you just vote on what you think he’s worth, whether or not you think he’ll play?
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