Contract Crowdsourcing 2011-12: Results

A couple weeks ago, we spent some time in these pages attempting to crowdsource the forthcoming contracts of some of this offseason’s key free agents and also Nick Punto. Below are the results of that exercise.

But first, it makes sense, perhaps, to revisit some of last year’s crowdsourced contract values and compare them to the actual contracts received by the same players.

Last year’s effort was of a slightly more ad hoc nature; however, our full-time employee Dave Cameron did publish all of the first-base results together.

Below are those results (Crowdsourced Contract) along with the actual contracts received by each corresponding player. (Note that contract values are of the average-annual variety.)

Player: Paul Konerko
Crowdsourced Contract: 2.4 years, $11.0 million
Actual Contract: 3 years, $12.5 million

Player: Carlos Pena
Crowdsourced Contract: 2.3 years, $8.9 million
Actual Contract: 1 year, $10.0 million

Player: Aubrey Huff
Crowdsourced Contract: 2.2 years, $8.8 million
Actual Contract: 2 years, $11.0 million

Player: Lance Berkman
Crowdsourced Contract: 1.7 years, $7.7 million
Actual Contract: 1 year, $8.0 million

Player: Lyle Overbay
Crowdsourced Contract: 1.4 years, $4.8 million
Actual Contract: 1 year, $5.0 million

In fact, it looks like the Crowds did relatively well in this case. Aubrey Huff got considerably more than (a) our readers expected and (b) he probably should have. If there’s a pattern of any sort, it’s that the estimated annual values are slightly lower than the actual ones. The average projected annual salary among these five players is $8.3 million; the actual comes out to $9.3 million — or roughly 12% higher.

Now here are this year’s results, sorted by position and then average annual value. Note that Ystd and Sstd are the standard-deviation values for Years and Salary, respectively. Note also that positions aren’t “projected” positions, necessarily, but just how the player was classified in our crowdsourcing posts.

Name		Yrs 	Sal	Ystd	Sstd	POS
Ramon Hernandez	2.0	$5.3	0.7	$2.3	C
Jorge Posada	1.1	$4.6	0.4	$2.4	C
Rod Barajas	1.7	$4.2	0.7	$2.2	C
Albert Pujols	7.4	$25.2	1.3	$3.4	1B
Prince Fielder	6.5	$20.9	1.0	$3.3	1B
David Ortiz	2.2	$11.3	0.7	$4.4	1B
Carlos Pena	1.7	$8.3	0.8	$2.6	1B
Derrek Lee	1.2	$5.8	0.5	$2.5	1B
Jim Thome	1.0	$5.0	0.2	$2.6	1B
Kelly Johnson	2.4	$6.6	0.9	$2.9	2B
Aaron Hill	2.1	$5.6	0.8	$2.6	2B
Jamey Carroll	1.6	$4.0	0.7	$1.9	2B
Jerry Hairston	1.5	$3.7	0.7	$1.7	2B
Mark Ellis	1.5	$3.6	0.7	$1.7	2B
Aramis Ramirez	3.2	$12.1	0.8	$3.1	3B
Wilson Betemit	1.7	$4.3	0.7	$1.8	3B
Nick Punto	1.4	$3.1	0.6	$1.8	3B
Jose Reyes	5.8	$17.4	0.9	$2.8	SS
Jimmy Rollins	3.5	$11.9	0.8	$2.3	SS
Rafael Furcal	2.1	$7.6	0.8	$2.2	SS
Clint Barmes	1.8	$4.4	0.7	$1.7	SS
Carlos Beltran	3.1	$12.3	0.8	$3.0	COF
Michael Cuddyer	2.7	$8.2	0.8	$2.3	COF
Josh Willingham	2.4	$8.0	0.8	$2.6	COF
Jason Kubel	2.2	$6.4	0.8	$2.0	COF
David DeJesus	1.9	$5.6	0.9	$2.1	COF
Grady Sizemore	2.4	$10.0	1.1	$4.9	CF
CC Sabathia	5.9	$23.1	1.1	$2.5	SP
C.J. Wilson	5.0	$15.5	0.7	$3.1	SP
Mark Buehrle	2.7	$11.1	0.9	$2.8	SP
Hiroki Kuroda	2.2	$10.6	0.9	$2.7	SP
Edwin Jackson	3.3	$10.4	0.9	$2.5	SP
Javier Vazquez	1.5	$9.0	0.6	$2.6	SP
Jo. Papelbon	3.5	$11.5	0.8	$2.3	RP
Heath Bell	2.8	$9.6	0.9	$2.2	RP
Ryan Madson	2.9	$8.6	0.6	$2.0	RP

Notes:
• It’s very possible that the 12% difference we saw between last year’s first-base crowdsourced contract and the actual contracts remains in effect for this year’s edition. For example, Albert Pujols is likely to receive more than the $25.2 million for which he’s been projected above. Adding 12%, or $3 million, to the top of that average annual salary gives Pujols a more likely $28.2 million annually.
• Grady Sizemore’s numbers are only from those who thought the Indians wouldn’t pick up his option.
• Javier Vazquez’s numbers are only from those respondents who believe Vazquez won’t retire.

We hoped you liked reading Contract Crowdsourcing 2011-12: Results by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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mettle
Guest
mettle

Sorry, but 2.3 years, $8.9 million is quite different from 1 year, $10.0 million even though the dollar amount is close. Same holds for Berkman – so really wisdom of the crowds got 2/5 right….

Barkey Walker
Guest
Barkey Walker

He may have been offered 2 years and asked for 1.

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger

I disagree Mettle. If he was offered 1/10, how much do you think a 2nd year would have been? 8MM$ maybe? So, that’s 2/18.

I don’t see how you can call that “quite” different, if I can make a reasonable case that it’s “quite” similar.

Rob
Guest
Rob

I think mettle was assuming that the money was a total figure, and not a per year figure (which is what I was assuming as well until I looked underneath and saw the salary figures for some of the bigger names)