Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Bartolo Colon.
Some relevant information regarding Colon:
- Has averaged 169.0 IP and 3.0 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 3.2 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 3.9 WAR in 190.1 IP in 2013.
- Is entering his age-41 season.
- Made $3.0M in 2013, as part of deal signed in offseason.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Colon this offseason.
Other Players: Bronson Arroyo / Carlos Beltran / A.J. Burnett / Marlon Byrd / Robinson Cano / Shin-Soo Choo / Nelson Cruz / David DeJesus / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Curtis Granderson / Omar Infante / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Nate McLouth / Kendrys Morales / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.
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Colon is hard pitcher to value. He has been very good this year but he’s over 40 and honestly I keep wondering when he will get hit with another PED suspension. I’d give him 1 year at 3 Mil again.
I’d stick with a one year deal, but I’d be willing to go $10 million on him. He’s been really good the last three years, and it’s not like he’s depending on a big fastball to do it, so one extra year of aging doesn’t worry me that much.
Colon through more fastballs than any other qualified starter this year (percentage wise that is). His fastball sits in the mid 90s. He totally relies on “a big fastball”
Or his fastball averaged 89.9 this year… You’re on the wrong site to not check your facts first.
Source please.
I see his FB velocity is over 90 mph over the last three years. 91.2 this year buddy….
source: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=375&position=P
I guess your on the wrong site.
Ok, you got me. I used the BIS data that combines 2 and 4-seamers. Still, averaging 91.2 is not sitting in the mid-90s.
Right, but he doesn’t depend on velocity, he depends on the movement in his two seam (which is kind of crazy). His 4seam averages 92 but can reach 94, his 2seam is around 89-90. There could be velocity loss on his 4 seam, but I don’t seem much coming off of the 2seam.
Honestly I did not expect this but he has been loosing more velocity off the 2seam FB than his 4seam FB over the last three years. He’s been losing an average of 1 mph of his 2seamer per year and .45 mph of his 4seamer per year. That being said, I agree with you that loosing velocity off the 2seamer is less of an issue as it is a more movement dependent pitch than the 4seam FB.
@ Alex D: “lose” not “loose. “You’re” not “your”
Is there a way to down-vote like 4,000 times every post correcting someone’s grammar?
To be fair I can’t stand it every time I see loose. Insure bugs me as well–that means to buy insurance people!
One year deal at $6M no more.
this.
Obviously he deserves a raise, but I wouldn’t go higher than 1 year, 8 million. Maybe two years.
Abstain, no option for zero years. I think offering a contract to a 42 year old starting pitcher is too risky. That money would be better spent elsewhere.
Sorry, 41. Still too much risk.
I would go 1-year with the contract heavy(no pun intended Mr. Colon)on incentives. Say about 5 mil with another 5 million in incentives.
10 years 250 mil take it or leave it Bartolo
Too old and fat. 5 years 75 mil would be more realistic
Production depends heavily on the defense he’s provided with.