Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Ervin Santana.
Some relevant information regarding Santana:
- Has averaged 206.0 IP and 1.5 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 1.3 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 3.0 WAR in 211.0 IP in 2013.
- Is entering his age-31 season.
- Made $13.0M in 2013, as part of extension signed in 2009.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Santana this offseason.
Other Players: Bronson Arroyo / Carlos Beltran / A.J. Burnett / Marlon Byrd / Robinson Cano / Shin-Soo Choo / Bartolo Colon / Nelson Cruz / David DeJesus / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Scott Feldman / Gavin Floyd / Matt Garza / Curtis Granderson / Roy Halladay / Jason Hammel / Dan Haren / Roberto Hernandez / Tim Hudson / Phil Hughes / Omar Infante / Ubaldo Jimenez / Josh Johnson / Scott Kazmir / Hiroki Kuroda / Tim Lincecum / Adam Lind / James Loney / Paul Maholm / Brian McCann / Nate McLouth / Kendrys Morales / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / Ricky Nolasco / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.
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I say he gets 4/52 million, I don’t offer him that much.
3y/$30m
Don’t worry, Dayton Moore will sign him to a 5y/$75m deal. I mean he signed Guthrie to a 3 year deal….
Absolutely.
I’m thinking 4/$48. Maybe a bit more on the dollars, but I don’t see anything bigger than a four year deal.
He is entering his age 31 season, has stayed pretty healthy, his K rate has stayed similar over the last five years as have his velocity and his GB/FB ratio has steadily improved from 38.2%/42% to 46.2%/32.9% over the last five years. I think he is perhaps the best arm on the market this year. He will get 4 and 50. Should get 3/39.
5/$70M. Because why not? I think the fact that he is coming off a big contract/salary helps his cause, because it creates the perception among GM’s that he is worth lots of money. I would go 3/$36 personally.