Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Jacoby Ellsbury.
Some relevant information regarding Ellsbury:
- Has averaged 564 PA and 5.4 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 5.8 WAR per 600 PA over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 5.8 WAR in 636 PA in 2013.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Made $9.0M in 2013 from a one-year deal to avoid arbitration.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Ellsbury this offseason.
Other Players: Robinson Cano / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Omar Infante / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe.
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He’ll make more next year than I will.
It’s assumed, apparently, that he’s getting the QO.
Without a doubt he will.
He gets the Carl Crawford contract, no doubt in my mind. Just not with the Red Sox.
I think he gets more/year, with less years.
Ellsbury is a tough one to judge though. He’s a significantly better player than Crawford was when healthy. He’s just been hurt so much… but none of the injuries are really the type that are predictive.
Honestly, I could see him getting a 5/90 deal and not be surprised, and I could see him getting a 7/200 deal, and not be surprised.
How is he significantly better than Crawford when healthy? Crawford was very,m very good before he signed that contract in Boston.
Crawford 3 years prior to signing deal:
.297/.349/.454 – .803
Ellsbury 3 years prior to signing (hypothetical) deal:
.303/.356/.469 – .825
So, Ellsbury is a better hitter, and the OPS numbers are deceptive, as the league average OPS had dropped quite a bit over the time between the two contracts(.734 to .725). When you adjust for offensive environment, Ellsbury probably has 10 points of OBP, and 30 points of SLG on Crawford.
Defense:
Crawford:
UZR has Crawford as a +20/150 LF over the 3 years prior to the deal.
Ellsbury
UZR has Ellsbury as +14/150 CF over the 3 years prior to the deal.
We can call that a wash, but I’d give preference to Ellsbury as he could play both positions, while Crawford refuses to play CF. Both have terrible arms.
Stolen bases:
Ellsbury: 104 SB 22 CS = 82.5%
Crawford: 132 SB 33 CS = 80%
Probably a wash. Ellsbury has a better percentage, but Crawford was a little more prolific and they were both producing value.
This all comes out to Ellsbury being a bit better than Crawford, but this time period has a year for Ellsbury in the middle where he missed half the season due to injury, and played the rest of the season hurt. His rate stats are significantly lower in that season.
It is clear to me that Ellsbury is a player with a significantly higher ceiling than Crawford. He’s a similar but more valuable defender, a better hitter, and a similar baserunner.
He’s just much less likely than Crawford was to be healthy.
RC – home park matters with the offense #’s
3 years leading up to contract
Ellsbury wRC+113
Crawford wRC+118
He’s likely going to get less than Crawford because of the injury risk aspect and I think people believing the Crawford contract was not a good one.
The other issue with Crawford was he had some crazy home/road UZR splits. Over a 6 year period at the Trop I think he was ~15runs better at home than on the road (UZR/150), including having a plus arm (I assume a turf effect?)
Of course home park matters, however, Fenway isn’t particularly friendly to LH hitters. He’s getting an adjustment there that isn’t real.
I’ve been arguing the Twins should sign him for months. Put him in CF, once Buxton is up, move him to LF. Yes, they need pitching, but what pitcher is out there that will add 4-6 wins? They have plenty of money to outbid many teams……I know, it isn’t going to happen. but at least they will re-sign Pelfry…..sigh.
M’s or Cubs on this one.
Ubaldo to Twins…
Pale Hose, Phils or O’s long shots.
Anyone suggesting he will sign with the Mariners as they are close to his Madras, Oregon home town have obviously not been to Madras. The Mariners first priority should be Tanaka, then an outfielder. If they get Tanaka then they can trade a young arm in a package for an outfielder. Texas is bringing back Cruz, which should keep them off Ellsbury and Choo.
the M’s figure prominently bc they are a good fit.
and btw, 1st rd draft protection for SEA, PHI and both CHI teams. To me, those are the teams that are most likely to chase Ellsbury. Mets could become interested only if those 4 make other choices for whatever reason.
Since you folks aren’t local you missed recent remarks from GM Jack Zd that ‘five year and more contracts really aren’t the way to go.’ Make of it what you will. An exception was made for Felix Hernandez, but he’s the face of a franchise operated by a marketing obsessed managaing partner and team president. When the Ms putatively went all in for Hamilton last offseason, they wouldn’t budge off four years though at a high per annum. The Ms have just had a very trying experience with a plus centerfielder who couldn’t stay healthy. How is it, then, that some see them as all over a guy who can’t stay healthy in the prime of his life, let alone entering the down years of his contract? Ellsbury’s health frightens me; a brittle guy whose main asset is speed is a very bad bet on a long term deal.
Anybody think that Ellsbury is going to sign for four-years-and-an-option? I don’t. The Mariners would very likely be all over that, but that isn’t there to be all over. The ‘Ellsbury to Seattle’ meme makes sense until you assemble the pieces; then, it doesn’t fly. I seriously do _not_ expect to see Jacoby Ellsbury in a Mariners uniform on Opening Day 2014.
The market will determine how many yrs he ultimately gets. If no one else is willing to go to 6 then he’ll get 5. If no one goes 5, he’ll get 4… The M’s are in a similar spot to the Mets. They’ve been on the outside looking in for a while, have money to spend now and need OFers. This is free agency; meaning that you have to accept that the marketplace will bid up the good players and you may not “win” the contract but it still may be better than trading young talent away to get that solid player you want. I don’t see how the M’s aren’t a finalist for Ellsbury esp when there’ll be no 1st rd draft comp. The others who figure to be involved will benefit greatly if the M’s bail out.
and Hamilton isn’t a great comp for Ellsbury imo being 2 yrs older, so in that case it made tons of sense to hold the line at 4 yrs. I also think the “brittle” tag gets overused by some people. JE doesn’t have anything chronic afaik.
The Mariners needed outfielders _last_ year, and still wouldn’t go above four years. That is the point, not whether Hamilton is a comp for Ellsbury. (And Hamilton isn’t a comp—he was much better in principal, with an entirely different principle skill, power, which the ownership in Seattle were very keen to put on the TV screen.)
If ‘the market’ collapses to four years for Ellsbury, then, yes, the Marniers will likely be a player. Such a collapse seems unlikely to me. And then there is the issue of whether Ellsbury will want to leave a team that looks to be going to the World Series this year, and could be better next year for a perennial screwup organization which only contends for a top five draft pick year in and year out. Look, Ellsbury is NOT going to sign onto a loser organization.
The only reason Seattle gets discussed is so the Boras can have a mark in the field to bid up the ante for a contending organization. I do think that the Seattle FO understands this now. The only way Seattle could conceivably sign Ellsbury is a catastrophically large-long deal. And the ownership here is just very, very unlikely to do that. And that doesn’t even touch the downside of signing an oft injured guy who’s had wide variations in performance whose one skill is very nearly the one _least_ valued by budgetary deciders in Seattle. Ellsbury is a ‘good fit’ for Seattle only in the minds of others not here. Seriously, the Mariners would be more likely to go after Nelson Cruz than Ellsbury (ugh).
Seattle is -most_ likely to make a bid on Lincecum if he hits the open market, and to go after the Japanese outfielder who may come over for 2014. Both of those moves fit well the longterm MO of the ownership deciders here.
I say he gets somewhere in the neighborhood of 5/90. Ellsbury is basically a rich man’s Michael Bourn (note: I am a Sox fan), but the health/durability risks somewhat offset his offensive upside. I’m also figuring he’d be worth something like 16-18 total WAR over the life of that deal, which would make him a perfectly reasonably FA signing.
The typical projection would be about 22 WAR based on his past performance, assigning decline of .5 WAR/year.
If he only puts up 16-18 over the next 5 years, he has way underperformed.
Also, 16-18 WAR is still worth about 100M
I am accounting for some missed time due to injury. If you say he’s worth about 20 WAR for 5 seasons of 700 PA, and I say he’s worth about 17 WAR for 5 seasons of 600 PA, we’re actually saying the same thing about his value per PA.
Also could just be an issue of where we peg his true talent level for 2014. 5+4.5+4+3.5+3 = 20, but 4.5+4+3.5+3+2.5 = 17.5.
And 90 is close enough to 100 that I don’t really see an issue with the projection.
I was starting with 600 PA, not 700. Injury is already factored in.
Put the offensive production is perspective, Alex Rios is the poor man’s Ellsbury. BB% and K% aren’t that different. Number of SB and success rate close. And Ellsbury”s 32 HR season was an anomaly.
I agree with you… except for his 32 homerun season being an anomaly. If the Yankees sign him, he’ll probably match Granderson’s inflated power numbers he enjoyed there.
If Pence got 5/90, I’d imagine Ellsbury gets at least either 5/105 or 7/135.
The M’s have less than40 million committed for next year. You’d have to be very optimistic on the young player’s developing to see them competing before 2016, but they do have a lot of well-regarded prospects. Overpay fir Ellsbury and trade for another OF, then hope.
I say 6 years/144 million. I agree, teams will balk due to his injury history. Especially because he is a the nagging injury type.
Crawford got 7/$142 (30 y/o) and Bourn got 4/$48 (31 y/o). Neither have lived up to their contracts as of yet. It’s still early, but you hope to get your value early in these deals.
I would give Ellsbury a contract somewhere in the middle 5/90 with a club option.
That won’t most likely get it done, but it won’t completely kill you.
The comments I keep reading in these crowdsourcing pieces seem to ignore anticipated inflation. The monies generated by cable contracts is significant. I cannot look at the Dodgers’ trades with Boston and Miami while ignoring this context. I cannot look at what appears to be a premature and absurd contract extension while ignoring this context. In other words, I expect Ellsbury to get paid a ton. I have him getting five years, $110-$120 mil.
Having said that, I still expect cleverly managed/opportunistic teams such as Tampa Bay and Oakland to avoid such contracts yet continue to win around 90 games a year.
Sorry, I meant to type “a premature and absurd contract extension such as the one Hunter Pence recently received” in that first paragraph.
This is a tough one due to the Q/O and the new BoSox front office.
I went with 6/$120 for both.
Ellsbury is really injury prone. I know how much we need him, but I dont see anyway we should pay him anything more than 5 years/$80 million (with only 4 of those years guaranteed and the 5th as an option year). Maybe if he was having the kind of power numbers he had in 2011, I could see giving him the $100 million+ deal that he is looking for, but that isnt what we are seeing. I say give him the qualifying offer, he’ll likely turn it down, and then find out, similarly to Michael Bourn, that teams arent going to be willing to give him that MEGA deal that he is looking for. Maybe Hunter Pence’s recent deal is going to have an effect on that, but Ellsbury still hasnt been the kind of player to stay on the field enough. Then that will be the Red Sox chance to strike. If Ellsbury signs, cool. If not, it sucks that he’s gone, but it just wasnt worth overpaying him.
Injury prone?
His entire injury history is basically getting run over by Adrian Beltre (who put several players on IR that year), and having a 2nd baseman land on his shoulder.
I guess thats technically fair to mention. I have talked about those injuries as being freak accidents in the past, so I can accept that opinion, but he also has had a few non-related injuries including injuring his ribs, and a couple of other ankle and leg injuries. I’ll ignore that though. I can still see him getting 5 years/$92.5 million, but b/c we havent seen the power we saw in 2011, I dont think you can really justify that $100+ million contract
Injuring his ribs was from Beltre running over him, and his only “ankle or leg” injury has been getting hit in the foot with a ball.
He’s definitely a tough case. If I was running a somewhat large-ish market team, I would probably be willing to go 5/90, maybe more if he’s the final big piece that actually gets me over the hump. I can also see some team giving him 6/132 or more…
I think he’s probably going to get something like 6/132 . He’s not the safest bet around, but he just needs to produce ~24 war in 6 years to make that contract decent value after factoring in the comp pick.
He should go close to home and sign with Seattle.
His war is greatly blurred by his interesting 2011 season. Saw the same types of pitches by %, near career averages in BABIP, contact rate, fly ball rate…yet hit well over double HR and HR per fly ball %??? He also will not be a 50+ SB guy for the next 6 years. Take 2013 and 2009 and blend them and you get who he will be for the next 3-4 years tops. Not worth anywhere near 6 years at 100+ mil.
Just went through Ellsbury’s 2013 game log. 15/52 SB could be viewed as worthless (team already ahead by 2+ or behind by 3+ when SB happen) stat padding SBs. However 37 SB in important situations where the team could in theory benefit from someone advancing a base without creating an out. That could be worth great value.
The flip side to that argument would be poor Victorino/Gomes and Pedroia. They have to hit with all that dancing around on the bases in front of them. With Ellsbury on base (172 H + 47 BB – 9 HR) 210 times and only scoring (92 R – 9 HR) on 39.5% or 83 of those times, maybe the extra movement on the bases hurts hitters behind him trying to drive him in. If someone has a chart of scoring % for players that takes out the HR I would love to see it…..For example Matt Carpenter on base (199 H + 72 BB – 11 HR) 260 times and scoring (126 R – 11 HR) on 44.2% or 115 of those times. So obviously plenty of other things factor into this but with Carpenter getting on equal times as Ellsbury he would have scored 9+ more runs!