Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Josh Johnson
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Josh Johnson.
Some relevant information regarding Johnson:
- Has averaged 111.0 IP and 1.9 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 3.0 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 0.5 WAR in 81.1 IP in 2013.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Made $13.75M in 2013, as part of extension signed with Marlins in 2010.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Johnson this offseason.
Other Players: Bronson Arroyo / Carlos Beltran / A.J. Burnett / Marlon Byrd / Robinson Cano / Shin-Soo Choo / Bartolo Colon / Nelson Cruz / David DeJesus / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Scott Feldman / Gavin Floyd / Matt Garza / Curtis Granderson / Roy Halladay / Jason Hammel / Dan Haren / Roberto Hernandez / Tim Hudson / Phil Hughes / Omar Infante / Ubaldo Jimenez / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Nate McLouth / Kendrys Morales / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.
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Another buy low/sell high candidate for the Cubs to pursue. He has a much better track record in terms of results than Hughes. Health is a different issue. I could see 3/33 or 4/44.
Blech.
I see him getting a 1-year deal with incentives. After 2013 don’t see him getting a multi-year offer until he proves it was a fluke.
I think you sign him in an incentive laden deal. If he performs he will be rewarded and if he underperforms or doesn’t perform, you are not out a hunk of cash. Johnson needs to prove that he is healthy and can make a difference before he is rewarded with a high dollar contract.
Something like 2 yrs for $10 million total, with $30 million in incentives and a club option for $15 million.
Seriously, a healthy Johnson is a great thing, but healthy is the key word.
Johnson is a good candidate for a short-term contract that is heavy on the incentives. A 1-year contract with an $8 million base and a potential to earn an additional $8 million would make sense for Johnson and many teams. Johnson could use the deal as an audition for a long-term deal next year, while still ensuring a decent base salary. But pitching is always in demand, and I could see a team making a 3 year offer at $12M to $13M per. That would be somewhat of a gamble, but not ridiculous.
Gila says 8 yrs $160M
1y/$7-8m with incentives. I like comparisons and I think Shawn Marcum is a good one with a 1y/$4m deal. Both guys are solid pitchers that struggle to stay healthy. But I think JJ has more track record and upside. I could see a 2 year deal too, perhaps a vesting option based on heath.
JJ at his worst was throwing 92. at his best 96. Marcum is an 86 mph junkthrower. I don’t follow the comp.
More of a 30 year old pretty good pitcher, missed most recent season and just never ever healthy comparison. I didn’t mean to compare stuff or quality. I know JJ is an ace at best. Just contract for an injury prone pitcher.
I might go even high consider Brandon McCarthy got 2y/$15.5 despite 111 IP in 2012.
Yeah, that’s where I fell too. I don’t think there’s any way he’ll be willing to sign a multiyear deal. At least, not the kind that will be offered to him. He’ll want to have a year of hopefully better health and try the market again next year.
Liriano 2.0. Go go gadget Huntington signing.