Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Marlon Byrd
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Marlon Byrd.
Some relevant information regarding Byrd:
- Has averaged 405 PA and 1.6 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 2.4 WAR per 600 PA over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 4.1 WAR in 579 PA in 2013.
- Is entering his age-36 season.
- Made $0.7M in 2013, as part of deal signed in offseason.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Byrd this offseason.
Other Players: Carlos Beltran / Robinson Cano / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Curtis Granderson / Omar Infante / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.
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Lance Berkman deal type thing? Berkman got 1/$10m. I think Byrd gets 1/$7 perhaps? Maybe a little less.
There was very little demand for Byrd during the trading period. I doubt any team pays him more than five million. Some team like the Mariners or Royals will lose out on all the bigger outfield free agents, sign Byrd, proclaim themselves ready for the playoffs, and then fall flat on their faces.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see him get a 2-3 year deal. Even if the interest in him was lukewarm during the trading period, that doesn’t mean that someone wouldn’t want him as an FA.
he should be able to find a 2/16M deal since he’s also a strong OFer.
a return engagement with the Mets is a good possibility.
According to the Fangraphs Offense stat (batting and baserunning combine, above average), Byrd was worth 24 runs this season, as opposed to 15.1 runs for his career. That means that, prior to this season, Byrd was worth -9 runs in over 4,000 plate appearances. This season has been a huge fluke and the lack of trading interest is proof of this. I would be shocked if Byrd got more than one guaranteed year.
His 4.1 WAR season clearly was fueled by an unsustainable .353 BABIP. But he has decent power, plays reasonable defense. Cody Ross is a little younger, but otherwise I am not aware of anything Ross offers that Byrd does not also offer. Jason Kubel has a different skill set, but similar value. I’ll go out on a limb and guess 2 years @ 8.5 million per.
As a Pirates fan, I hope the Bucs manage to keep him. I doubt Greg Polanco will be ready for a starting role in April, and the Tabata/Snider platoon was rough. Byrd seems right at home patrolling RF at PNC.
Additionally as a Pirates fan, I agree. Help bridge the gap to Polanco with a one-year deal. Unfortunately, I don’t think he takes a one-year deal, and looks for a two. If I were the Pirates, I would offer 1 yr/$6M. Maybe he ends up taking it, maybe he ends up taking a 2-year deal else where at $5M-$5.5M a year.
As a Pirates fan I remember a lot of complaints about the Pirates signing players who were in their late 30s but now I see a lot of people saying to sign Byrd and Burnett.
Byrd is having a fluky year and is unlikely to repeat it next year. Move on from him and look elsewhere to bridge a gap to a Polanco. My personal favorite is see if you can Murphy for a relatively low salary 1 year deal (and platoon him with Tabata). He was the victim of a low BABIP this year and should be in line for a nice bounce back.
1 year for 4 million is what I offer..not enuff to get him on my team. And I could live with that.
Byrd screams 2 year deal to the Mariners to me. They will have the same problems getting big ticket free agents and sign him up. If Scott Hairston got a 2 year deal last offseason for $8m total I think someone will value Byrd at 2 years and $16m total. Personally though I wouldn’t go more than one year.
Wow Pdowdy83, you nailed this. Unfortunately for me it was the Phillies.