Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Mike Napoli.
Some relevant information regarding Napoli:
- Has averaged 476 PA and 3.8 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 4.8 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
- Recorded a 3.9 WAR in 578 PA in 2013.
- Is entering his age-32 season.
- Made $5.0M in 2013 (plus incentives) from deal signed in offseason.
*Although some of this as a catcher, which position typically features a higher WAR per PA.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Napoli this offseason.
Other Players: Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
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have to believe he is getting Qualifying Offer which affects this
Noted. Have added as question.
Sox could want him back and thus make the QO and take him for 1 more yr. They’ll need to bring in a 1Bman if it’s not him.
For players in the playoffs, it might be better to do this after the season. A monster post-season could change what is offered.
definitely true.
As a Sox fan who has seen what Napoli has brought to the team this year, I’d love to see them make him a qualifying offer and have him accept it, but I stopped believing in the Easter Bunny a long time ago. If I’m Napoli, I’m (of course) looking for a 5 year deal. Face it – he’s never again going to have the leverage he has now. Someone misguided GM will offer him 5-75 and he’ll take it, as he should. Problem for that team is, he’s going to look more and more like Adam Dunn, especially as years 3-4-5 (ages 35-36-37) come around.
Wow, I would never have thought that Dunn and Napoli would be so similar stats-wise. The only real difference is that Napoli makes better contact to make up for a 30% lower walk rate. Their career OBP and SLG are almost identical.
It’s not career path so much that scares me about long term with Napoli, I’m still somewhat concerned about his hip over a long term deal.
I know GM’s are not always rational, but the best he could get last season was 3-39 before the hip diagnosis, and 1-13 afterwards. He hit about his career average and stopped catching, so what boosted his value to the point where a GM who was unwilling to give him 3-40 would give the slightly older version 5-75?
Faced with a “prove it” year health-wise, he proved it, not to mention what he brought to the Sox clubhouse. Put together, those things should generate some 3 year offers. Assuming he has multiple 3 year options, I think one of those GMs will up it to 5.
Other relevant information: avascular necrosis in the hips. Apparently hasn’t been a problem this season, but….
Yeah, I predicted him for one year due to that. If there were a spot for $5million offer with $20million in additional incentives I’d have gone for that.
Similarly, I’m saying “yes” to the Sox giving him a qualifying offer. They wanted him for 3 years for about that much per year, and then backed off due to the hip problem, they’ll probably be willing to risk the offer.
I think he gets a qualifying offer from sox. I think someone else offers him two years and 20 million, hip condition be damned.
They’d be stupid to bring back Napoli. Very stupid. Age, injury problems, contact rate? Yikes. Nope.
I would offer him the qualifying offer, would rather overpay for 1 year than risk a longer deal. Maybe 2 years for 25 mil total.
I said they’d offer the QO, but I think it basically depends on whether they’re going after Jose Dariel Abreu. There’s probably not enough room (payroll/roster-wise) for Napoli if Abreu’s here for $50-$60m as the heir apparent to Big Papi. I am divided on whether they should go after Abreu, but I lean towards yes, if the scouts think he’s legit. I’m not sure I buy the “bat speed” warnings given that they’ve been issued about seemingly all top Cuban prospects.
If they’re not signing Abreu, I think the Sox offer the QO, and there’s a decent chance Napoli accepts.