Contract Crowdsourcing 2020-21: Ballot 3 of 10
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2020-21 free-agent market.
This year, we’ve added a few new features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. We’ve elected to show averages from the 2017-2019 seasons so that this year’s shortened slate doesn’t skew the numbers, but we’ve also included 2020 stats as a point of recent reference. 2020 salary figures represent players’ pre-pandemic contract amounts. Statistics are prorated to full season where noted; the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2021 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a collection of position players, several of whom are known for their versatility in the field. It also features Ha-seong Kim, a notable KBO infielder who is likely to be posted this offseason.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Lot of 1 year contracts here…and then the batting title leader in the AL and one of the top 5 players in the KBO.
A bunch of these guys who are ‘1 year’ contracts are first-time free agents (Like Hernandez)
Oh, what I mean by that is that they are unlikely to get more than a 1 year contract. Sorry, that wasn’t clear.
Not thinking of these guys necessarily, but some of this year’s FAs might be lucky to get even that. Non tenders are also likely to be common.
Charlie Finley’s plan may not come to pass but this year will bring something close.
Would have liked to have seen Ozuna, but maybe he’s another just one year guy
He’ll appear on a later ballot.
So far, I’m giving an awful lot of qualifying offers accepted. I guess I think both owners and players will want some security.
I’ve only given 1 or 2 qualifying offers even offered to players. Most of these players aren’t worth half of the qualifying offer.
Out of curiosity, which of this set did you think would be offered? The only one I could see was LeMahieu who I don’t think will accept it.
ETA: I *do* see a lot of 1-year, $3MM type deals in this set of ten.
I definitely overestimated for most of these; I think there’s a big difference between what we feel these guys are worth and should receive, and how free agents are likely to be undercompensated during this COVID-impacted offseason..
For most of them I’m going under what they made this year. After this season, I doubt owners are going to open up those check books for larger contracts.
Ditto.
I’m going 20% under and I’m pretty sure I’m overly generous.
A lot of surprising WAR projection IMO, so I did a bunch of 2 year contracts with marginal raises. Probably super wrong.
That’s basically what I did, but I’m just not sure the $8 million per WAR is really a great benchmark anymore based on spending habits
For most of these guys I just picked 1-year deals at a lower AAV than what they got the last time, with Miller and LaStella getting about 3 times as much but still on a one year deal. Although I think poor Jake Lamb might be looking at a minor league deal.
Only guys getting a double digit AAV and/or multiple years are Kim and LeMahieu.
I think a few players will get backloaded 2-3 year deals. A lot of others will get 1 year in the 2-4 million range and if they play well and fans come back, they will get big raises in 2022.
If the yankees think they can get Lindor, LeMahieu might only get a 1-year offer.
He may end up a super utility if he stays there.
If the Yankees only offer LeMahieu a one year deal, LeMahieu will not be playing for the Yankees next season.
It may be the highest AAV offer.
Or even highest total.
Would be interesting if the Yankees sent Clint Frazier back to CLE in a Lindor deal.
Sounds like the Yanks are really going to reduce their payroll and if that’s the case, I can def see them letting DJLM and Tanaka both go. They will QO both and prob add the less costly Brantley, a LHed bat they desperately need.
should put how old Kim is