Contract Crowdsourcing 2020-21: Ballot 7 of 10

October 22, 2020

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2020-21 free-agent market.

This year, we’ve added a few new features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. We’ve elected to show averages from the 2017-2019 seasons so that this year’s shortened slate doesn’t skew the numbers, but we’ve also included 2020 stats as a point of recent reference. 2020 salary figures represent players’ pre-pandemic contract amounts. Statistics are prorated to full season where noted; the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2021 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for seven of this year’s free agents — in this case, the first group of starting pitchers.

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Francoeursteinmember

3 years ago

Went 1/$32 for Bauer. We will see if he upholds his commitment to sign 1-year deals

sadtrombonemember

Reply to Francoeurstein

He recently backed away from that just a little bit.

IMO, he’s going to get an offer similar to or just shy of Strasburg (7 years, $228M in present-day value) either in years or AAV, see dollar signs, and decide to take the long-term deal. $32M for one year or for 6-7? I think I know what I would pick.

Doug Lampertmember

Reply to sadtrombone

I forgot he’d ever said that and just gave him 7 years.

TKDCmember

I’m guessing he simultaneously backed away from letting his friend light up his privates with a paintball gun. I’d assume “how about $10,000 instead?” would do the trick.

fjtorres

With Bauer the question is where he lands.
The money he’ll get, but where?

Not many teams can go over $30M on a pitcher.
I’m thinking Angels…
…or Yankees…
Always a possibility the Yankees.

mattmember

Reply to fjtorres

Angels makes a ton of sense, yankees are supposedly crying poor and will slash payroll. Got to feel bad for the ownership. /s. The question is who is the competition? Remember Dodgers made a very real bid for Cole, will they do the same for Bauer? Will some young team a year away make a run at him aka Manny Machado? Maybe someone like the Tigers?

The Mets are a logical option too as Degrom as great as he still is is 32 and Noah is a FA in a year coming off TJ. Will Cohen really buy at the highest level like rumors suggest?

Ultimately the Angels make the most sense but the same was true of Cole and we saw how that ended up.

-1

Reply to matt

Dodgers don’t need him just yet (unless they’re concerned about the health Kershaw and Buehler both) and much less his online antics.
Angels can’t possibly afford to waste another year of Trout’s prime, right?
The only option than NYY is the CHISOX. Especially if the market is depressed and he insists on a one year deal.

Dodgers don’t “need” anyone but it should be pointed out that Kershaw has lot of miles on those tires and verlander isn’t exactly the norm for star pitchers. I can’t imagine they’d actually care about his social media stuff.

bluerum29

I think I went 2 year at 22 per. I haven’t given anyone more than 3 years. After this season I don’t see teams putting out the long term dollars. They will wait to do that until next offseason.

Reply to bluerum29

After the new CBA?
Could be.
Crying poor after the fanless season(s) is a likely strategy. It might even be true for a few franchises.

sadhulkmember

I think it’s going to take a little more than that, maybe something like $42,069,000.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG