Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 5 of 11
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for nine of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of outfielders.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
I’ll be interested in what Conforto does if he gets a QO. I think he gets well more on the market but maybe he really does benefit from accepting and shooting for a bounce back year and going back out with no QO.
I read a news report saying he was going to reject the QO. I would think this would be a mistake. Conforto’s had periods where he’s raked but between the apparent injury-proneness and his lackluster 2021 I’d think he’s behind Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos…and Schwarber at least won’t have a QO.
If I were a team I would be jumping all over Conforto if he’s coming at a cheaper price than Schwarber and Castellanos . Conforto’s not particularly consistent and really shouldn’t play against LHP, but the other 2 guys haven’t been consistent either and bring zero/negative defensive value. Castellanos in particular seems due for a huge regression as I’m not seeing anything in his profile this year that suggests his 2021 wasn’t a fluke.
I agree Conforto is a compelling option, but I would point out that he’s not actually that bad against lefties: he’s at career 94 wRC+. That’s not GOOD, but it’s far from unplayable if you don’t have a lefty killing platoon guy available.
I would just say that it’s relatively easy to find a RH hitting corner outfielder to platoon
No, but some teams don’t like to roster short side platoon guys who only play corner of, or else they have other players who need platoon partners even more than conforto would.
Have to be careful what you wish for re Conforto. His ‘21 season is what regression looks like. He led the league in babip in the short 2020 season. Also have to be careful not to overweight numbers from the 2019 homerball season. i think you have to go back to 2018 to get a better read on his baseline talent level. He’s prob about a 2.5 win player. He’s frustrating. Too many Ks per HR, and too few balls in play.
It wasn’t just a high BABIP, it was the highest BABIP in a season since Rogers Hornsby in 1924. No one is paying Conforto for his 2020, they’d be paying him to be the roughly 3 win player he’s been for most his career, and he’s young enough to expect a bounce-back to that level. He’s more attractive to me that Castellanos and Schwarber given that he can play and average RF instead of needing to DH.
I also disagree with your point about his Ks. He’s struck out at a rate near identical to league average since 2015
He’s not going to get a QO.
Lots of interesting questions on this ballot.
The glut of corner guys is really going to hurt some of them. Schwarber and Castellanos are coming off pretty good years offensively and are probably the top of the class, with some valuing Suzuki because of his youth and their internal projection systems liking him. And some teams looking for corner guys might go hard after Starling Marte, too, who’s clearly the best of the outfielders this year (at least for 2022).
For guys like Conforto, who’s coming off a bad year, and Joc Pederson, who’s long been seen as a platoon only guy even if he played more this year against lefties, I don’t know that they’re going to get particularly large deals. They might have to settle for one year prove-it deals. To a lesser extent, Jorge Soler, too; he was real, real bad with Kansas City this year, but hit like his 2018-2019 peak when he got to Atlanta. He’ll get a major league contract for sure but I think it might be a one year prove-it deal.
Avisail Garcia’s club option became a mutual option through vesting appearances, so it’s possible he opts out and the Brewers don’t have any choice in retaining him. If he does opt-out, I think he’s not going to find the market too friendly, and the $12M salary he’d pull in 2022 if he opt in is pretty good. The buyout on the team side is pretty high though–$4M. So if he opts in you could see the strange occurrence of a mutual option actually getting exercised.
I think Suzuki will get a surprisingly big offer because he’s only 27, and so like Yusei Kikuchi a few years ago teams will be more excited to give big years because the chances of him declining immediately after signing him won’t be likely. Of course, Kikuchi has kind of been a mess but you could definitely see a handful of teams going after him (Cincinnati, San Francisco, Detroit, Washington, could all be in play). I put him down for 7 years, $77M.
I wonder about what the league opinion is of Canha. I never hear anything about him but he’s outperformed a ton of the other players on this list, pretty regularly too. If industry perception follows fan perception I think you might be able to snag him on a pretty cheap multiyear deal (like 3 years, $20-25M).
Couldn’t disagree more on Avisail. Pretty much had a breakthrough year. Question is whether or not he’ll get a QO. If not, his market will be very strong.
Is a 115 wRC+ from a corner OF really a breakout? I don’t see him having much of a market at all?
Pretty much agree. Had a bunch of 1-2 year deals except for Suzuki (though I had 4 yrs, $40M for him..wonder if recent NPB position players not performing will hinder his market some?), Castellanos & Canha. I think Schwarber gets 3+ yrs, too.
Not sure Detroit will go after Suzuki. Greene is about ready, they still have Grossman. Baddoo can play the corner, so can Reyes. Most seem to think they’re looking for SS & SP, maybe some bullpen help.
Yeah, the more I think about this the more I think you’re right. Kikuchi got that long deal because he’s a pitcher, and pitching is always in demand on the FA market. 4 years, $40M seems much more likely.
Yea I wonder how much that’ll affect his market. Excluding Ohtani, who’s a unicorn, the best NPO hitter to come stateside since Matsui is……Nori Aoiki?
Every time there’s a club option, it doesn’t say what the option is for. Also, there’s no way to say, “Accepts club option”, so I just choose No Contract.
That 2.2 fWAR projection for Suzuki just seems really, really low; a .281/.350/.469 line is quite similar to what Randy Arozarena did this year (.274/.356/.459) which was good for a 128 wRC+ and 3.3 WAR in just over 600 PA. And Arozarena is pretty bad defensively, so that didn’t help him at all. Per a recent report, Suzuki is speedy enough to cover CF in a pinch with a 70 arm to boot, so he would likely be a plus defender in right.
OOTP really loves Suzuki, for whatever that’s worth; personally I would be tripping over myself to give him a 5Y/$80M deal, and even that seems low. I know some NPB guys have come over and disappointed recently like Tsutsugo and Akiyama, but Suzuki is not the same. His plate discipline and swing and miss in NPB is clearly better, his swing better adapted to handle velocity, and he’s also presumably coming over younger, right in his prime at 27.