Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 5 of 11

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for nine of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of outfielders.





Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.

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CC AFCMember since 2016
3 years ago

I’ll be interested in what Conforto does if he gets a QO. I think he gets well more on the market but maybe he really does benefit from accepting and shooting for a bounce back year and going back out with no QO.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
3 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I read a news report saying he was going to reject the QO. I would think this would be a mistake. Conforto’s had periods where he’s raked but between the apparent injury-proneness and his lackluster 2021 I’d think he’s behind Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos…and Schwarber at least won’t have a QO.

Dmjn53
3 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

If I were a team I would be jumping all over Conforto if he’s coming at a cheaper price than Schwarber and Castellanos . Conforto’s not particularly consistent and really shouldn’t play against LHP, but the other 2 guys haven’t been consistent either and bring zero/negative defensive value. Castellanos in particular seems due for a huge regression as I’m not seeing anything in his profile this year that suggests his 2021 wasn’t a fluke.

CC AFCMember since 2016
3 years ago
Reply to  Dmjn53

I agree Conforto is a compelling option, but I would point out that he’s not actually that bad against lefties: he’s at career 94 wRC+. That’s not GOOD, but it’s far from unplayable if you don’t have a lefty killing platoon guy available.

Dmjn53
3 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I would just say that it’s relatively easy to find a RH hitting corner outfielder to platoon

CC AFCMember since 2016
3 years ago
Reply to  Dmjn53

No, but some teams don’t like to roster short side platoon guys who only play corner of, or else they have other players who need platoon partners even more than conforto would.

Dooduh
3 years ago
Reply to  Dmjn53

Have to be careful what you wish for re Conforto. His ‘21 season is what regression looks like. He led the league in babip in the short 2020 season. Also have to be careful not to overweight numbers from the 2019 homerball season. i think you have to go back to 2018 to get a better read on his baseline talent level. He’s prob about a 2.5 win player. He’s frustrating. Too many Ks per HR, and too few balls in play.

Dmjn53
3 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

It wasn’t just a high BABIP, it was the highest BABIP in a season since Rogers Hornsby in 1924. No one is paying Conforto for his 2020, they’d be paying him to be the roughly 3 win player he’s been for most his career, and he’s young enough to expect a bounce-back to that level. He’s more attractive to me that Castellanos and Schwarber given that he can play and average RF instead of needing to DH.

I also disagree with your point about his Ks. He’s struck out at a rate near identical to league average since 2015

Dooduh
3 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

He’s not going to get a QO.