Contract Crowdsourcing 2021-22: Ballot 9 of 11

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, the market’s marquee starting pitchers.

Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.

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11 months ago

This is a fun set. I think Gausman is probably the one I’d feel best about giving a long-term contract, so I had him at about 5/$100M (a shade below the Wheeler contract from a couple years ago). But Ray’s a year younger so if 2-3 teams really fall in love with him you could see him top the total guarantee. I don’t know what Rodon would get if he turned down the QO, because it depends if people think he’s healthy and think he can hold up under a traditional starter’s workload. I could see his contract ranging from 3/$30M to $7/120M, but with more downside than upside.

Don’t sleep on E-Rod. He’s young, and that 2021 ERA is a bit off because Boston’s defense was so bad. I think he could get up to 5/$90M if he doesn’t get a QO, although I think 5/$75M is much more likely. If he does get a QO (which seems unlikely to me) I think he’ll have a tough choice about accepting it.

Miley’s absolutely not hitting the FA market, so I didn’t fill that one out. Verlander and Syndergaard have a pretty clear precedent with Corey Kluber and James Paxton. Kershaw’s a little different; he’s probably sticking with the Dodgers in some fashion, and for the longer term, but not anywhere near that AAV.

11 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Gausman should be a lock for 5/125