Contract Crowdsourcing: Adrian Beltre
Adrian Beltre took a one year deal with the Red Sox in order to reestablish his value and hit the market with better numbers than he posted last year. Mission accomplished, and then some. Beltre’s +7.1 WAR is second only to Josh Hamilton in the American League, as he’s been a revelation for the Red Sox. In addition to his legendary defense at third base, he’s found his power stroke again and has been one of the league’s best hitters this year. That combination of production on both sides of the field is something few players bring, and you can expect Scott Boras to point that out all winter long.
If Beltre could be expected to repeat his 2010 season, he’d be in for a monstrous payday. But Beltre is something of an enigma on offense, as his career batting runs totals show: from 2000, he’s gone +15.7, -2.3, -2.3, -7.8 +55.3, -6.9, +7.0, +10.3, +6.0, -7.9, and +33.9. You don’t really know what kind of production you’re going to get from him at the plate. He’s had two great years mixed in with a host of solid ones, and the uncertainty of knowing which version of Beltre you might get creates some risk, which drives down prices. But the upside is tantalizing, and while Beltre does turn 32 next year, he’s shown no signs of aging, and is as durable as they come.
He’s clearly the best third baseman on the market, and every team with a hole at the position will at least kick the tires to see what Boras’ asking price will be. So, now, it’s up to you guys to determine what that price will eventually settle on. What will Adrian Beltre sign for this winter?
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I’m betting on 4years, $14m per. I can see Beltre signing between $12m/yr and $17m/yr for a 3 or 4 year deal
I went 3/$14, so along the same lines.
Uh, isnt there supposed to be, like, a thing? for us to vote with? Now im gonna post this comment and the the thing will pop up and im going to feel like a dummy.
Where is the actual voting menu?
and there it is. commence feeling like a dummy.
It disappeared for a few minutes. I don’t know why. Sorry about that.
“I’ll see what’s best for me and my family,” said Beltre, who lives in the Los Angeles area during the offseason. “This year I was selfish enough, coming to the East Coast, knowing my wife was pregnant and she would be away from me basically for the whole year. This year is going to be more a family thing. It’s been tough. I haven’t seen family like I wanted to. We’re going to settle down, discuss it, and see what’s best for us.”
It seems like the Angels are the best fit for Beltre. He has been saying a lot lately about how he wants to play close to home in SoCal, although he keeps stressing that he wants to win and would love to stay in Boston. Maybe the Angels get the nod because he can win and play at home. However, if the Angels are really going all in on Crawford, will they have enough $ for Beltre? If not, I would expect Beltre to stay in Boston instead of going to somewhere like Detroit.
It’s possible that Beltre is willing to move his family, but he was waiting until this offseason. He figured Boston was a one year stop, so it doesn’t make much sense to uproot his family twice. Money solves a lot of problems, although I don’t know his family dynamics.
Boy, I hope that money wasn’t the issue w/ moving his family to Boston, the guy has made over 80 million over his career already.
I agree it was the 1 year nature of the contract rather than money that prevented him from moving his family. I went 3 year at 13 per. I just don’t see anyone giving him more than 3 years, but then again GMs can surprise you.
Between A-Rod’s ridiculous contract and Beltre’s own previous deal (’05-’09), it looks like Aramis Ramirez’s deal is the only relevant comparison. He got $75MM over five years, but Ramirez was four years younger than Beltre is today. So I’m guessing he’ll get somewhere in the neighborhood of $15MM annually, which would value him roughly as 4 WAR, right?–which is almost exactly what he’s done per 600 plate appearances over his career. How many years, I don’t know, but I said four years. Four years, $60MM for probably the best third baseman on the market seems reasonable. Like commenter Mark above said, LAA seems like a good fit.
I’m thinking GM’s are going to be generally wary of Beltre. I’d expect 4/48, 3/40, or maybe even 2/36 with an option.
i went with 3 at 16m/yr.
i can see him getting anywhere from 13-18m though, but i would be shocked if he gets anything longer than a 3 year deal
3/13 per – I don’t think there are any other good 3Bs available, but his rather empty BA would scare me. That said, even when he wasn’t that great offensively (call em “the Seattle years”) he was still worth a ton due to his defense, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he got more (say, 4/15)
I think the Red Sox will offer 3 years at @$15M a year, so whoever signs him will have to beat that and at least come close to whatever Boras’s mystery team offers. So, I picked 4 years at $16M a year, but I wouldn’t really be surprised by anything.
I’m guessing he’ll get 4 years at $12M mil each. Or a three at $15M w/ an option. I’d love it if he stays with the Sox, but if his family isn’t going to move the Angels might be the better fit.
I said 3/$15 a year. It looks like everyone has pretty much the same idea that we all do.
I say Boston gives him the Mike Lowell deal – 4 years @ $12mm per (4/48).
Similar circumstances. No backup plan… if they were willing to give Lowell that deal knowing what a much worse risk he was than Beltre I assume they are willing to go at least that high for Beltre, who is a player they long coveted and adore. I could see 4 years @ $14mm if it came to that. They won’t let him go.
These responses seem rather low. Beltre’s averaged four wins per season over his career, making him worth $16 million annually. Boston will most certainly offer 3/45, and might up its offer to four years if the AAV is palatable to them. However, it would be a slap in Beltre’s face if they were to offer him 3/45 and counter with 4/48. And the Mike Lowell comparison is baseless. Beltre’s a much better player, and Lowell’s deal was 3/39.
I said 4 @ $15 per. I think somebody will go that high. It’s more than I’m comfortable with, and more than I think Epstein will be comfortable with, even if Beltre wants to stay….so as a Sox fan I’m preparing to say goodbye.
4 years – 50 mil, 12.5 per season.
I said 1 yr at $10 million. I, however, feel I underestimated his future contract after reading the comments.