Contract Crowdsourcing: Carl Pavano
Because not everyone is interested in Giants-Braves or Rangers-Rays, we’ll mix in some other stuff during our playoff coverage this week as well. Today, we’ll attempt to estimate the contract that Carl Pavano will receive this winter. In order to give people some assurance that I’m not slanting the votes in any particular direction, I’ll save my commentary on Pavano for tomorrow’s recap of what you guys think he’ll end up with. For now, just the facts.
2010: 221 innings, 1.51 BB/9, 4.76 K/9, 51.2% GB%, 4.02 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 3.75 ERA
2010 salary: $7 million – accepted arbitration last winter.
Compensation: Projected Type A free agent
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I opted for a 3 year/$30 million deal – which supposedly is what Pavano and his agent are going to want.
Some team will overpay for his services, despite his injury history and age.
The real question is, how much will his mustache inflate his value?
Two years, $9 million per, and I doubt he has his pick of teams willing to pay him around that much.
same
Agreed with you two, 2 yr/18 mil deal.
Props to Dave for taking some constructive criticism for once. The Al Cy young poll was a statistics taking 101 class’ nightmare.
“Props to Dave for taking some constructive criticism for once.”
Here’s some constructive criticism for Locke: Leave out the “for once” and just stick with the “props”.
Are people not allowed to voice their opinions without someone jumping down their throats?
It’s his opinion, why do you care?
B, I don’t know what you’re talking about. I didn’t jump down Locke’s throat. I simply suggested it would be a more positive contribution to note that Dave listened to the criticisms. The “for once” and the complaint about a past post don’t seem all that necessary in this post.
Anyway, props to Dave for listening to constructive criticism.
I meant exactly what I said. There have been some very legit criticisms ignored, that otherwise would have materially increased the accuracy of these polls…… and after a half dozen of them he has at least learned not to give his opinion of the poll in the intro paragraph to the poll!!! (DURRRR). Not sure what your issue with my post is.
No team in their right mind should give him more than a year. Which, of course, means that someone will give him the three years he’s looking for.
(I’d say the Mets, but Minaya’s on his way out.)
Well… his WAR and age would put him in line for something like 3 years at $10m per, but I think with his SwStr/K rates down this year, and the fact he was pitching in MIN, he’ll end up with something like 2@8. The plus side is that he doesn’t seem to be losing any velocity.
I’m going with 1 year/12 million. Being a Type A and with his injury history, I think he’ll have trouble getting a 3-year deal, and if his agent gets a reading to that effect from the market, I think he may accept arbitration.
If the Twins don’t offer arbitration, then 2 yrs/20 million.
Went 1/10 by reasoning along similar lines. Pavano’s a 34 year old guy without strikeout stuff. A regular FA with his age, pre-2009 history, and general lack of stuff probably wouldn’t get much more than 2/16 or 3/20 considering injury probability and decline means there’s a strong possibility that you’ll get nothing or a replacement-level pitcher for your $16-20M. Add in the cost of a pick and not many teams offer that much, more along the lines of 1/7 or 2/10. Accepting arbitration and looking for a slight raise on this year’s salary is his best move, and his agent will probably tell him that. Plus, he apparently likes Minnesota and they probably won’t give him more than a year.
I don’t see how being a type A hurts him that much. It might limit the teams bidding, but if that’s a big enough influence, then he won’t get a one year $12 million deal. A team that’s willing to sign him to a 1 year 12 million deal has to give up the same draft pick if they sign him to a 2 year $20 million deal or 3 year $30 million or whatever. In some respects, the draft pick is less costly to the team if they get two or three years of a pitcher rather than one.
In reality, Ihe will probably get a deal with some option/bonuses/buyouts where he might end up earning $12 million or more for a one year deal, or less than $30 million for 3 depending on health and how well he pitches.
I wonder if some schmuck will look at the win total and go nuts.
Is this a rhetorical question?
Of course some team will.
I went 3 years @ 8 Million.
I read the summary after voting, and was glad to see the lack of commentary before the poll. I had been skipping the commentary before voting on the previous entries because I just wanted to give a quick gut reaction.
If I had read the intro, in retrospect I would have docked his value somewhat due to his likely Type A status.
The guy’s had two solid years in a row. I think he’s put some of the troubles behind him, and this is coming from a Yankee fan.
I think he’s done enough to warrant a multi-year contract. But he’s also not a “name” pitcher.
I admit this one’s tough. I put 3 years/$10 million per, but there’s a huge range of possible outcomes I see on this one. Someone not willing to go over 2 years, but willing to pay $12 million per, etc.
I think Pavano will do whatever he can to avoid arbitration though. He’ll get a raise, but would he get over $10 million in arb? I doubt it.
I’m glad somebody else put 3 years @ 10 million per year! I thought I was the only one; what are some of the recent free agent deals for 30 something starting pitchers?
I went 2 year 8 mil per. I could see it going higher though. Somewhere between 8 and 10 per year for 1 to 3 years seems about the going rate for a guy like Pavano.
I went 2/8mil as well. I could see maybe (?) a vesting or a club option for a 3rd.
I would not be surprised if a team pays him 10mil, but if it is for more than a year, I think it’s a mistake… I have a hard time seeing Pavano being worth 10mil at age 37. I’m not sure if GM’s factor in the cost/value of a #1 they will be giving up into the contract, but if they do I don’t see 10mil per for multiple years.
I’m also in the 2/8 boat.
I’m basically giving Pavano the same Pineiro got from the angels last year. I’m somewhat reluctant to give him that much since Pineiro just put up a 5 WAR season and wasn’t a type A FA.
*same deal
+1… for those who don’t have it memorized, Pineiro got 2/16. I actually think Pavano is going to get more than that. And I’d bet he gets signed by a team who signs another Type A free agent, so that they don’t have to pay a 1st rounder for Pavano.
Can’t see someone going 3 years on him. Not with the reputation he got for dogging it with the Yankees. I suspect he’s on a short leash with most GMs.
I say 2/17. Or would, except the page isn’t loading right.
At a time when a guy like Bronson Arroyo (3.4 WAR in the last two seasons) makes 11 millions I think Pavano (WAR 6.9 in the same period) has the right to get some more, but considering his DL history I say 1/13 with a guaranteed second year if he pitches 200 innings or some similar kind of option.
2 years, 9 million per season
I went with 3/30, but would probably revise that downward after more consideration. While I do believe there is always the possibility of some team giving him that much, the number of teams that could both afford that kind of contract and would be interested in Pavano is smaller than I had first thought.